ALP 3.3%
Incumbent MP
No incumbent MP.
Geography
Bullwinkel covers parts of eastern Perth and regional areas immediately to the east. The electorate stretches from Greenmount and Forrestfield out to Grass Valley and Beverley.
Bullwinkel covers the Beverley, Kalamunda, Mundaring, Northam, Toodyay and York council areas, and parts of the Armadale, Gosnells and Swan council areas.
Redistribution
Bullwinkel is a new seat, taking in parts of Burt, Canning, Durack, Hasluck, O’Connor and Swan. Almost half of the population of Bullwinkel was previously in Hasluck, while another 22% were in Swan.
History
Bullwinkel is a new electorate created as a marginal Labor seat, primarily taking areas from the seat of Hasluck. Hasluck had alternated between Labor and Liberal from 2001 to 2010, before being held by Ken Wyatt for four terms from 2010 to 2022. Labor’s Tania Lawrence won the seat in 2022 amidst a huge swing to Labor across Western Australia.
The areas now contained in Bullwinkel have tended to hew closely to the statewide two-party-preferred vote in Western Australia, although it often leans slightly towards the Liberal Party.
Assessment
Bullwinkel is a very marginal seat, even with the very strong Labor performance in Western Australia. Labor doesn’t have a sitting MP to defend the seat, so there is a good chance the seat will swing back to the Liberal Party and they could win here.
| Party | % |
| Labor | 34.4 |
| Liberal | 32.5 |
| Greens | 10.7 |
| Informal | 5.5 |
| One Nation | 4.1 |
| United Australia | 2.7 |
| Western Australia Party | 2.5 |
| Independent | 1.7 |
| Federation Party | 1.6 |
| Nationals | 1.3 |
| Liberal Democrats | 1.1 |
| Australian Christians | 1.0 |
| Animal Justice | 0.6 |
| Great Australian Party | 0.4 |
| Informed Medical Options | 0.1 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Party | % |
| Labor | 53.3 |
| Liberal | 46.7 |
Booths in Bullwinkel have been split into four parts. The sparsely populated east has been grouped together. The urban booths in the Perth area have been split into north-west, south-west and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the western areas, ranging from 53.5% in the south-west to 55.7% in the north-west. The Liberal Party polled 53.9% in the east.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 8.7% in the east to 14.1% in the south-west.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 11.3 | 55.3 | 16,811 | 17.6 |
| North-West | 13.7 | 55.7 | 14,881 | 15.6 |
| South-West | 14.1 | 53.5 | 6,034 | 6.3 |
| East | 8.7 | 46.1 | 5,071 | 5.3 |
| Pre-poll | 10.1 | 52.8 | 31,503 | 33.0 |
| Other votes | 11.3 | 52.5 | 21,042 | 22.1 |
Election results in Bullwinkel at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
Agree Lurking Westie, an expansion of Parliament would likely see Forrest and O’Connor split into three seats, with Forrest contracting to the far southwest corner (Margaret River and Busselton only), O’Connor losing the rest of its Southwest holdings contracting to Albany with a new seat centred on Collie and Bunbury, stretching out to include Capel, Donnybrook and surrounding towns (making it mostly a combination of Bunbury and Collie-Preston state seats).
Bumbalo doubtful all the growth is in Perth. as per the last state and federal elections. Bullwinkel should have been solely a metropolitain seat but they went for the hybrid design and Oakford was created at a state level at the expense of North West Central