New Zealand goes to the polls on 20 September for their general election.
The National-led centre-right government will be running for a third term at the election.
For the first time, I am putting together a seat-by-seat guide to the New Zealand election, in a similar format to my guides to the last two Australian federal elections, and a number of Australian state elections.
So far I have prepared profiles of fifteen out of seventy-one electorates, and those profiles can now be read online. You can find links to all of the seats completed so far, either by clicking through to the alphabetical list of seats, or a list of seats sorted by electoral vote margin (a pendulum).
These fifteen electorates include:
- The four most marginal National Party seats: Christchurch Central, Port Hills, Waimakariri and Maungekiekie.
- The five most marginal Labour Party seats: Wigram, Mana, West Coast-Tasman, Te Atatū andTe Tai Tonga.
- All three Māori Party electorates: Tāmaki Makaurau, Waiariki, Te Tai Hauāuru.
- The sole electorates held by the Mana Party (Te Tai Tokerau), ACT New Zealand (Epsom) and United Future (Ōhariu).
Please come back and check periodically, as I will be posting profiles of the remaining 56 electorates throughout July and August. I will be posting links to the most recently-posted profiles on the right-hand side of the website.
The profile will also include a series of articles explaining New Zealand politics, the electoral system, recent political history, frequently asked questions and the redistribution, but I won’t be posting those until the electorates have been finished.
In addition, I have produced an update to my analysis of the New Zealand redistribution. In November, I conducted a full analysis of the draft electoral boundaries, including my estimate of the electorate and party vote for each party in each new electorate. All margins in the pendulum reflect the new electoral boundaries.
You can download the map in Google Earth format here, and you can browse the map below to see the electorate vote for each party on the new boundaries.
After the fold, I’ve posted some more explanation of the changes, and a table showing the pre-redistribution and post-redistribution margin for each electorate for both the party vote and the electorate vote.
The last redistribution, prior to the 2008 election, created 70 electorate seats. 47 of these seats were North Island general electorates, 16 were South Island general electorates, and the other seven were Māori electorates.
Since the last redistribution, the population has grown most strongly in the North Island, so the North Island was granted a 48th electorate.
Changes were relatively mild in the South Island, apart from some shifts in the seats in the Christchurch area due to population changes after the 2010/11 earthquakes.
The draft boundaries made no changes at all to Māori electorates. The final boundaries made a very small change, shifting a small area from Ikaroa-Rāwhiti to Waiariki. I have assumed no changes to the vote numbers in the seven Māori electorates.
In the North Island, one electorate was abolished, and two new electorates were created, all on the western fringe of Auckland.
The National seat of Waitakere, covering urban fringe and rural areas west of Auckland, was abolished. The seat of Upper Harbour was created as a very safe National seat covering the northwestern urban fringe in Auckland. The seat of Kelston was created as a very safe Labour seat covering western parts of Auckland.
In addition, the marginal Labour seat of Port Hills, in southern Christchurch, has been redrawn into a marginal National seat.
Overall, the National Party increased its number of electorate seats from 42 to 43, and the Labour Party maintained its numbers at 22, with another six seats held by small parties.
|Electorate||Old candidate vote||New candidate vote||Old party vote||New party vote|
|Auckland Central||NAT 2.16% vs LAB||NAT 10.60% vs LAB||NAT 17.12% vs LAB||NAT 21.89% vs LAB|
|Bay of Plenty||NAT 50.55% vs LAB||NAT 49.69% vs LAB||NAT 43.92% vs LAB||NAT 43.06% vs LAB|
|Botany||NAT 38.68% vs LAB||NAT 37.81% vs LAB||NAT 36.64% vs LAB||NAT 35.82% vs LAB|
|Christchurch Central||NAT 0.17% vs LAB||NAT 1.33% vs LAB||NAT 15.22% vs LAB||NAT 18.92% vs LAB|
|Christchurch East||LAB 19.04% vs NAT||LAB 18.82% vs NAT||NAT 14.44% vs LAB||NAT 11.63% vs LAB|
|Clutha-Southland||NAT 52.06% vs LAB||NAT 52.06% vs LAB||NAT 46.68% vs LAB||NAT 46.68% vs LAB|
|Coromandel||NAT 37.76% vs LAB||NAT 37.86% vs LAB||NAT 34.09% vs LAB||NAT 34.32% vs LAB|
|Dunedin North||LAB 11.90% vs NAT||LAB 9.12% vs NAT||LAB 1.40% vs NAT||NAT 0.59% vs LAB|
|Dunedin South||LAB 12.12% vs NAT||LAB 12.12% vs NAT||NAT 5.21% vs LAB||NAT 5.21% vs LAB|
|East Coast||NAT 16.46% vs LAB||NAT 16.65% vs LAB||NAT 25.90% vs LAB||NAT 25.15% vs LAB|
|East Coast Bays||NAT 45.10% vs LAB||NAT 52.49% vs LAB||NAT 45.65% vs LAB||NAT 51.65% vs LAB|
|Epsom||ACT 6.30% vs NAT||ACT 6.68% vs NAT||NAT 48.98% vs LAB||NAT 49.59% vs LAB|
|Hamilton East||NAT 25.54% vs LAB||NAT 24.37% vs LAB||NAT 26.67% vs LAB||NAT 25.50% vs LAB|
|Hamilton West||NAT 14.19% vs LAB||NAT 13.97% vs LAB||NAT 18.59% vs LAB||NAT 18.41% vs LAB|
|Hauraki-Waikato||LAB 35.53% vs MANA||LAB 35.53% vs MANA||LAB 33.05% vs MAORI||LAB 33.05% vs MAORI|
|Helensville||NAT 60.24% vs LAB||NAT 45.97% vs LAB||NAT 51.44% vs LAB||NAT 46.20% vs LAB|
|Hunua||NAT 48.83% vs LAB||NAT 50.86% vs LAB||NAT 46.47% vs LAB||NAT 48.17% vs LAB|
|Hutt South||LAB 15.05% vs NAT||LAB 9.91% vs NAT||NAT 5.34% vs LAB||NAT 14.14% vs LAB|
|Ikaroa-Rawhiti||LAB 37.61% vs MAORI||LAB 37.61% vs MAORI||LAB 34.60% vs MAORI||LAB 34.60% vs MAORI|
|Ilam||NAT 40.07% vs LAB||NAT 40.07% vs LAB||NAT 39.16% vs LAB||NAT 39.16% vs LAB|
|Invercargill||NAT 19.79% vs LAB||NAT 19.79% vs LAB||NAT 21.15% vs LAB||NAT 21.15% vs LAB|
|Kaikōura||NAT 34.54% vs LAB||NAT 34.54% vs LAB||NAT 35.55% vs LAB||NAT 35.55% vs LAB|
|Kelston||LAB 25.31% vs NAT||LAB 13.60% vs NAT|
|Mana||LAB 6.64% vs NAT||LAB 6.64% vs NAT||NAT 2.19% vs LAB||NAT 2.19% vs LAB|
|Māngere||LAB 63.30% vs NAT||LAB 63.30% vs NAT||LAB 57.46% vs NAT||LAB 57.46% vs NAT|
|Manukau East||LAB 62.96% vs NAT||LAB 63.03% vs NAT||LAB 47.07% vs NAT||LAB 46.86% vs NAT|
|Manurewa||LAB 36.41% vs NAT||LAB 36.41% vs NAT||LAB 31.30% vs NAT||LAB 31.30% vs NAT|
|Maungakiekie||NAT 9.31% vs LAB||NAT 5.74% vs LAB||NAT 6.74% vs LAB||NAT 3.40% vs LAB|
|Mt Albert||LAB 31.69% vs NAT||LAB 24.10% vs NAT||LAB 0.41% vs NAT||NAT 5.70% vs LAB|
|Mt Roskill||LAB 23.21% vs NAT||LAB 10.59% vs NAT||LAB 4.07% vs NAT||NAT 6.71% vs LAB|
|Napier||NAT 11.12% vs LAB||NAT 11.81% vs LAB||NAT 19.52% vs LAB||NAT 20.23% vs LAB|
|Nelson||NAT 20.51% vs LAB||NAT 20.51% vs LAB||NAT 18.08% vs LAB||NAT 18.08% vs LAB|
|New Lynn||LAB 15.92% vs NAT||LAB 22.58% vs NAT||NAT 2.22% vs LAB||LAB 4.60% vs NAT|
|New Plymouth||NAT 12.90% vs LAB||NAT 14.44% vs LAB||NAT 27.44% vs LAB||NAT 28.15% vs LAB|
|North Shore||NAT 41.87% vs LAB||NAT 41.87% vs LAB||NAT 45.93% vs LAB||NAT 45.93% vs LAB|
|Northcote||NAT 29.00% vs LAB||NAT 29.00% vs LAB||NAT 27.24% vs LAB||NAT 27.24% vs LAB|
|Northland||NAT 35.95% vs LAB||NAT 35.95% vs LAB||NAT 32.55% vs LAB||NAT 32.55% vs LAB|
|Ōhariu||UNF 3.74% vs LAB||UNF 0.29% vs LAB||NAT 23.07% vs LAB||NAT 21.89% vs LAB|
|Ōtaki||NAT 14.09% vs LAB||NAT 14.02% vs LAB||NAT 17.20% vs LAB||NAT 17.44% vs LAB|
|Pakuranga||NAT 44.06% vs LAB||NAT 44.06% vs LAB||NAT 44.19% vs LAB||NAT 44.19% vs LAB|
|Palmerston North||LAB 10.20% vs NAT||LAB 10.20% vs NAT||NAT 10.24% vs LAB||NAT 10.24% vs LAB|
|Papakura||NAT 32.57% vs LAB||NAT 31.59% vs LAB||NAT 25.42% vs LAB||NAT 24.55% vs LAB|
|Port Hills||LAB 9.53% vs NAT||NAT 2.50% vs LAB||NAT 16.02% vs LAB||NAT 22.65% vs LAB|
|Rangitata||NAT 18.62% vs LAB||NAT 17.09% vs LAB||NAT 26.70% vs LAB||NAT 25.78% vs LAB|
|Rangitīkei||NAT 30.21% vs LAB||NAT 29.55% vs LAB||NAT 32.75% vs LAB||NAT 31.79% vs LAB|
|Rimutaka||LAB 9.87% vs NAT||LAB 15.07% vs NAT||NAT 11.62% vs LAB||NAT 5.74% vs LAB|
|Rodney||NAT 32.31% vs CON||NAT 31.01% vs CON||NAT 48.72% vs LAB||NAT 47.08% vs LAB|
|Rongotai||LAB 25.14% vs NAT||LAB 25.14% vs NAT||LAB 1.19% vs NAT||LAB 1.19% vs NAT|
|Rotorua||NAT 24.04% vs LAB||NAT 29.06% vs LAB||NAT 29.32% vs LAB||NAT 32.44% vs LAB|
|Selwyn||NAT 53.88% vs LAB||NAT 55.77% vs LAB||NAT 46.52% vs LAB||NAT 47.67% vs LAB|
|Tāmaki||NAT 48.46% vs LAB||NAT 50.33% vs LAB||NAT 46.84% vs LAB||NAT 48.70% vs LAB|
|Tamaki Makaurau||MAORI 5.31% vs LAB||MAORI 5.31% vs LAB||LAB 27.05% vs MAORI||LAB 27.05% vs MAORI|
|Taranaki-King Country||NAT 50.42% vs LAB||NAT 50.82% vs LAB||NAT 44.49% vs LAB||NAT 45.36% vs LAB|
|Taupō||NAT 42.92% vs LAB||NAT 42.92% vs LAB||NAT 36.03% vs LAB||NAT 36.03% vs LAB|
|Tauranga||NAT 48.24% vs LAB||NAT 48.56% vs LAB||NAT 39.22% vs LAB||NAT 39.57% vs NZF|
|Te Atatū||LAB 18.38% vs NAT||LAB 8.27% vs NAT||NAT 2.28% vs LAB||NAT 5.28% vs LAB|
|Te Tai Hauauru||MAORI 18.45% vs LAB||MAORI 18.45% vs LAB||LAB 20.98% vs MAORI||LAB 20.98% vs MAORI|
|Te Tai Tokerau||MANA 6.21% vs LAB||MANA 6.21% vs LAB||LAB 10.17% vs MANA||LAB 10.17% vs MANA|
|Te Tai Tonga||LAB 8.83% vs MAORI||LAB 8.83% vs MAORI||LAB 22.70% vs GRN||LAB 22.70% vs GRN|
|Tukituki||NAT 29.12% vs LAB||NAT 29.12% vs LAB||NAT 28.46% vs LAB||NAT 28.46% vs LAB|
|Upper Harbour||NAT 30.01% vs LAB||NAT 30.69% vs LAB|
|Waiariki||MAORI 10.59% vs MANA||MAORI 10.59% vs MANA||LAB 13.84% vs MAORI||LAB 13.84% vs MAORI|
|Waikato||NAT 46.50% vs LAB||NAT 47.23% vs LAB||NAT 43.54% vs LAB||NAT 44.08% vs LAB|
|Waimakariri||NAT 1.81% vs LAB||NAT 3.02% vs LAB||NAT 33.48% vs LAB||NAT 35.00% vs LAB|
|Wairarapa||NAT 21.01% vs LAB||NAT 21.01% vs LAB||NAT 28.23% vs LAB||NAT 28.23% vs LAB|
|Waitakere||NAT 0.03% vs LAB||NAT 3.07% vs LAB|
|Waitaki||NAT 37.43% vs LAB||NAT 37.34% vs LAB||NAT 33.87% vs LAB||NAT 33.79% vs LAB|
|Wellington Central||LAB 16.64% vs NAT||LAB 17.40% vs NAT||NAT 10.73% vs GRN||NAT 10.13% vs GRN|
|West Coast-Tasman||LAB 7.66% vs NAT||LAB 7.66% vs NAT||NAT 18.55% vs LAB||NAT 18.55% vs LAB|
|Whanganui||NAT 16.18% vs LAB||NAT 16.93% vs LAB||NAT 20.15% vs LAB||NAT 20.53% vs LAB|
|Whangarei||NAT 36.74% vs LAB||NAT 36.74% vs LAB||NAT 30.33% vs LAB||NAT 30.33% vs LAB|
|Wigram||LAB 4.81% vs NAT||LAB 4.46% vs NAT||NAT 13.93% vs LAB||NAT 13.07% vs LAB|