Check it out – NZ 2014 election guide


New Zealand goes to the polls on 20 September for their general election.

The National-led centre-right government will be running for a third term at the election.

For the first time, I am putting together a seat-by-seat guide to the New Zealand election, in a similar format to my guides to the last two Australian federal elections, and a number of Australian state elections.

So far I have prepared profiles of fifteen out of seventy-one electorates, and those profiles can now be read online. You can find links to all of the seats completed so far, either by clicking through to the alphabetical list of seats, or a list of seats sorted by electoral vote margin (a pendulum).

You can also download a spreadsheet of all the key vote figures.

These fifteen electorates include:

Please come back and check periodically, as I will be posting profiles of the remaining 56 electorates throughout July and August. I will be posting links to the most recently-posted profiles on the right-hand side of the website.

The profile will also include a series of articles explaining New Zealand politics, the electoral system, recent political history, frequently asked questions and the redistribution, but I won’t be posting those until the electorates have been finished.

In addition, I have produced an update to my analysis of the New Zealand redistribution. In November, I conducted a full analysis of the draft electoral boundaries, including my estimate of the electorate and party vote for each party in each new electorate. All margins in the pendulum reflect the new electoral boundaries.

You can download the map in Google Earth format here, and you can browse the map below to see the electorate vote for each party on the new boundaries.

After the fold, I’ve posted some more explanation of the changes, and a table showing the pre-redistribution and post-redistribution margin for each electorate for both the party vote and the electorate vote.

The last redistribution, prior to the 2008 election, created 70 electorate seats. 47 of these seats were North Island general electorates, 16 were South Island general electorates, and the other seven were Māori electorates.

Since the last redistribution, the population has grown most strongly in the North Island, so the North Island was granted a 48th electorate.

Changes were relatively mild in the South Island, apart from some shifts in the seats in the Christchurch area due to population changes after the 2010/11 earthquakes.

The draft boundaries made no changes at all to Māori electorates. The final boundaries made a very small change, shifting a small area from Ikaroa-Rāwhiti to Waiariki. I have assumed no changes to the vote numbers in the seven Māori electorates.

In the North Island, one electorate was abolished, and two new electorates were created, all on the western fringe of Auckland.

The National seat of Waitakere, covering urban fringe and rural areas west of Auckland, was abolished. The seat of Upper Harbour was created as a very safe National seat covering the northwestern urban fringe in Auckland. The seat of Kelston was created as a very safe Labour seat covering western parts of Auckland.

In addition, the marginal Labour seat of Port Hills, in southern Christchurch, has been redrawn into a marginal National seat.

Overall, the National Party increased its number of electorate seats from 42 to 43, and the Labour Party maintained its numbers at 22, with another six seats held by small parties.

Electorates list

ElectorateOld candidate voteNew candidate voteOld party voteNew party vote
Auckland CentralNAT 2.16% vs LABNAT 10.60% vs LABNAT 17.12% vs LABNAT 21.89% vs LAB
Bay of PlentyNAT 50.55% vs LABNAT 49.69% vs LABNAT 43.92% vs LABNAT 43.06% vs LAB
BotanyNAT 38.68% vs LABNAT 37.81% vs LABNAT 36.64% vs LABNAT 35.82% vs LAB
Christchurch CentralNAT 0.17% vs LABNAT 1.33% vs LABNAT 15.22% vs LABNAT 18.92% vs LAB
Christchurch EastLAB 19.04% vs NATLAB 18.82% vs NATNAT 14.44% vs LABNAT 11.63% vs LAB
Clutha-SouthlandNAT 52.06% vs LABNAT 52.06% vs LABNAT 46.68% vs LABNAT 46.68% vs LAB
CoromandelNAT 37.76% vs LABNAT 37.86% vs LABNAT 34.09% vs LABNAT 34.32% vs LAB
Dunedin NorthLAB 11.90% vs NATLAB 9.12% vs NATLAB 1.40% vs NATNAT 0.59% vs LAB
Dunedin SouthLAB 12.12% vs NATLAB 12.12% vs NATNAT 5.21% vs LABNAT 5.21% vs LAB
East CoastNAT 16.46% vs LABNAT 16.65% vs LABNAT 25.90% vs LABNAT 25.15% vs LAB
East Coast BaysNAT 45.10% vs LABNAT 52.49% vs LABNAT 45.65% vs LABNAT 51.65% vs LAB
EpsomACT 6.30% vs NATACT 6.68% vs NATNAT 48.98% vs LABNAT 49.59% vs LAB
Hamilton EastNAT 25.54% vs LABNAT 24.37% vs LABNAT 26.67% vs LABNAT 25.50% vs LAB
Hamilton WestNAT 14.19% vs LABNAT 13.97% vs LABNAT 18.59% vs LABNAT 18.41% vs LAB
Hauraki-WaikatoLAB 35.53% vs MANALAB 35.53% vs MANALAB 33.05% vs MAORILAB 33.05% vs MAORI
HelensvilleNAT 60.24% vs LABNAT 45.97% vs LABNAT 51.44% vs LABNAT 46.20% vs LAB
HunuaNAT 48.83% vs LABNAT 50.86% vs LABNAT 46.47% vs LABNAT 48.17% vs LAB
Hutt SouthLAB 15.05% vs NATLAB 9.91% vs NATNAT 5.34% vs LABNAT 14.14% vs LAB
Ikaroa-RawhitiLAB 37.61% vs MAORILAB 37.61% vs MAORILAB 34.60% vs MAORILAB 34.60% vs MAORI
IlamNAT 40.07% vs LABNAT 40.07% vs LABNAT 39.16% vs LABNAT 39.16% vs LAB
InvercargillNAT 19.79% vs LABNAT 19.79% vs LABNAT 21.15% vs LABNAT 21.15% vs LAB
KaikōuraNAT 34.54% vs LABNAT 34.54% vs LABNAT 35.55% vs LABNAT 35.55% vs LAB
KelstonLAB 25.31% vs NATLAB 13.60% vs NAT
ManaLAB 6.64% vs NATLAB 6.64% vs NATNAT 2.19% vs LABNAT 2.19% vs LAB
MāngereLAB 63.30% vs NATLAB 63.30% vs NATLAB 57.46% vs NATLAB 57.46% vs NAT
Manukau EastLAB 62.96% vs NATLAB 63.03% vs NATLAB 47.07% vs NATLAB 46.86% vs NAT
ManurewaLAB 36.41% vs NATLAB 36.41% vs NATLAB 31.30% vs NATLAB 31.30% vs NAT
MaungakiekieNAT 9.31% vs LABNAT 5.74% vs LABNAT 6.74% vs LABNAT 3.40% vs LAB
Mt AlbertLAB 31.69% vs NATLAB 24.10% vs NATLAB 0.41% vs NATNAT 5.70% vs LAB
Mt RoskillLAB 23.21% vs NATLAB 10.59% vs NATLAB 4.07% vs NATNAT 6.71% vs LAB
NapierNAT 11.12% vs LABNAT 11.81% vs LABNAT 19.52% vs LABNAT 20.23% vs LAB
NelsonNAT 20.51% vs LABNAT 20.51% vs LABNAT 18.08% vs LABNAT 18.08% vs LAB
New LynnLAB 15.92% vs NATLAB 22.58% vs NATNAT 2.22% vs LABLAB 4.60% vs NAT
New PlymouthNAT 12.90% vs LABNAT 14.44% vs LABNAT 27.44% vs LABNAT 28.15% vs LAB
North ShoreNAT 41.87% vs LABNAT 41.87% vs LABNAT 45.93% vs LABNAT 45.93% vs LAB
NorthcoteNAT 29.00% vs LABNAT 29.00% vs LABNAT 27.24% vs LABNAT 27.24% vs LAB
NorthlandNAT 35.95% vs LABNAT 35.95% vs LABNAT 32.55% vs LABNAT 32.55% vs LAB
ŌhariuUNF 3.74% vs LABUNF 0.29% vs LABNAT 23.07% vs LABNAT 21.89% vs LAB
ŌtakiNAT 14.09% vs LABNAT 14.02% vs LABNAT 17.20% vs LABNAT 17.44% vs LAB
PakurangaNAT 44.06% vs LABNAT 44.06% vs LABNAT 44.19% vs LABNAT 44.19% vs LAB
Palmerston NorthLAB 10.20% vs NATLAB 10.20% vs NATNAT 10.24% vs LABNAT 10.24% vs LAB
PapakuraNAT 32.57% vs LABNAT 31.59% vs LABNAT 25.42% vs LABNAT 24.55% vs LAB
Port HillsLAB 9.53% vs NATNAT 2.50% vs LABNAT 16.02% vs LABNAT 22.65% vs LAB
RangitataNAT 18.62% vs LABNAT 17.09% vs LABNAT 26.70% vs LABNAT 25.78% vs LAB
RangitīkeiNAT 30.21% vs LABNAT 29.55% vs LABNAT 32.75% vs LABNAT 31.79% vs LAB
RimutakaLAB 9.87% vs NATLAB 15.07% vs NATNAT 11.62% vs LABNAT 5.74% vs LAB
RodneyNAT 32.31% vs CONNAT 31.01% vs CONNAT 48.72% vs LABNAT 47.08% vs LAB
RongotaiLAB 25.14% vs NATLAB 25.14% vs NATLAB 1.19% vs NATLAB 1.19% vs NAT
RotoruaNAT 24.04% vs LABNAT 29.06% vs LABNAT 29.32% vs LABNAT 32.44% vs LAB
SelwynNAT 53.88% vs LABNAT 55.77% vs LABNAT 46.52% vs LABNAT 47.67% vs LAB
TāmakiNAT 48.46% vs LABNAT 50.33% vs LABNAT 46.84% vs LABNAT 48.70% vs LAB
Tamaki MakaurauMAORI 5.31% vs LABMAORI 5.31% vs LABLAB 27.05% vs MAORILAB 27.05% vs MAORI
Taranaki-King CountryNAT 50.42% vs LABNAT 50.82% vs LABNAT 44.49% vs LABNAT 45.36% vs LAB
TaupōNAT 42.92% vs LABNAT 42.92% vs LABNAT 36.03% vs LABNAT 36.03% vs LAB
TaurangaNAT 48.24% vs LABNAT 48.56% vs LABNAT 39.22% vs LABNAT 39.57% vs NZF
Te AtatūLAB 18.38% vs NATLAB 8.27% vs NATNAT 2.28% vs LABNAT 5.28% vs LAB
Te Tai HauauruMAORI 18.45% vs LABMAORI 18.45% vs LABLAB 20.98% vs MAORILAB 20.98% vs MAORI
Te Tai TokerauMANA 6.21% vs LABMANA 6.21% vs LABLAB 10.17% vs MANALAB 10.17% vs MANA
Te Tai TongaLAB 8.83% vs MAORILAB 8.83% vs MAORILAB 22.70% vs GRNLAB 22.70% vs GRN
TukitukiNAT 29.12% vs LABNAT 29.12% vs LABNAT 28.46% vs LABNAT 28.46% vs LAB
Upper HarbourNAT 30.01% vs LABNAT 30.69% vs LAB
WaiarikiMAORI 10.59% vs MANAMAORI 10.59% vs MANALAB 13.84% vs MAORILAB 13.84% vs MAORI
WaikatoNAT 46.50% vs LABNAT 47.23% vs LABNAT 43.54% vs LABNAT 44.08% vs LAB
WaimakaririNAT 1.81% vs LABNAT 3.02% vs LABNAT 33.48% vs LABNAT 35.00% vs LAB
WairarapaNAT 21.01% vs LABNAT 21.01% vs LABNAT 28.23% vs LABNAT 28.23% vs LAB
WaitakereNAT 0.03% vs LABNAT 3.07% vs LAB
WaitakiNAT 37.43% vs LABNAT 37.34% vs LABNAT 33.87% vs LABNAT 33.79% vs LAB
Wellington CentralLAB 16.64% vs NATLAB 17.40% vs NATNAT 10.73% vs GRNNAT 10.13% vs GRN
West Coast-TasmanLAB 7.66% vs NATLAB 7.66% vs NATNAT 18.55% vs LABNAT 18.55% vs LAB
WhanganuiNAT 16.18% vs LABNAT 16.93% vs LABNAT 20.15% vs LABNAT 20.53% vs LAB
WhangareiNAT 36.74% vs LABNAT 36.74% vs LABNAT 30.33% vs LABNAT 30.33% vs LAB
WigramLAB 4.81% vs NATLAB 4.46% vs NATNAT 13.93% vs LABNAT 13.07% vs LAB
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  1. The number of South Island seats is fixed at 16, and the number of North Island and Maori seats is set by comparison to that – so if the North Island population grows faster, the number of seats will increase.

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