NZ redistribution – full analysis of draft boundaries

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Last Thursday, the first round of draft boundaries for the next New Zealand election was released to the public.

After extensive work, I have now produced a Google Earth map of the boundaries, as well as estimates of the vote for each party in the party vote and candidate vote in each of the electorates.

In short, no changes were made to the seven Maori electorates (which will not feature much in this analysis), as well as to twenty of the 63 general electorates.

The other 43 general electorates have been redrawn into 44 new electorates. One electorate (Waitakere, on the western fringe of Auckland) has been abolished, with two new  electorates (Upper Harbour and Kelston) created in western Auckland. Western and northern Auckland has seen the greatest changes, with the rest of the country seeing relatively minor changes.

In terms of the impact on parties, the Nationals have lost Waitakere and gained Upper Harbour, for no net change, and Labour has gained the seat of Kelston, resulting in Labour having one more seat than on current boundaries.

In Christchurch, the seat of Christchurch Central has switched from National to Labour, and the seat of Port Hills has switched from Labour to National, for no net change.

You can download the Google Earth map here. You can also download the map, along with the 2008-2011 parliamentary map and maps of local council areas and regions, at the Maps page.

Click through below for a Fusion Table with all of the results, more maps and more data.

You can download a spreadsheet which includes the vote for each party in each electorate before and after the redistribution, a table that shows the margins (both party vote and candidate vote) before and after, as well as a pendulum sorting electorates by their margin in the candidate vote after the redistribution, and a table of the shifts in population.

Download the spreadsheet here.

This Fusion Table shows the candidate vote for each party in each electorate. You can also click here to view the Fusion Table showing the party vote.

Electorates list

ElectorateOld candidate voteNew candidate voteOld party voteNew party vote
Auckland CentralNAT 2.16% vs LABNAT 7.20% vs LABNAT 17.12% vs LABNAT 20.41% vs LAB
Bay of PlentyNAT 50.55% vs LABNAT 50.73% vs LABNAT 43.92% vs LABNAT 44.11% vs LAB
BotanyNAT 38.68% vs LABNAT 37.80% vs LABNAT 36.64% vs LABNAT 35.82% vs LAB
Christchurch CentralNAT 0.17% vs LABLAB 4.07% vs NATNAT 15.22% vs LABNAT 14.20% vs LAB
Christchurch EastLAB 19.04% vs NATLAB 16.20% vs NATNAT 14.44% vs LABNAT 14.04% vs LAB
Clutha-SouthlandNAT 52.06% vs LABNAT 52.06% vs LABNAT 46.68% vs LABNAT 46.68% vs LAB
CoromandelNAT 37.76% vs LABNAT 37.86% vs LABNAT 34.09% vs LABNAT 34.32% vs LAB
Dunedin NorthLAB 11.90% vs NATLAB 9.12% vs NATLAB 1.40% vs NATNAT 0.59% vs LAB
Dunedin SouthLAB 12.12% vs NATLAB 12.12% vs NATNAT 5.21% vs LABNAT 5.21% vs LAB
East CoastNAT 16.46% vs LABNAT 16.65% vs LABNAT 25.90% vs LABNAT 25.15% vs LAB
East Coast BaysNAT 45.10% vs LABNAT 52.42% vs LABNAT 45.65% vs LABNAT 51.64% vs LAB
EpsomACT 6.30% vs NATACT 6.46% vs NATNAT 48.98% vs LABNAT 48.72% vs LAB
Hamilton EastNAT 25.54% vs LABNAT 24.26% vs LABNAT 26.67% vs LABNAT 25.48% vs LAB
Hamilton WestNAT 14.19% vs LABNAT 14.34% vs LABNAT 18.59% vs LABNAT 18.87% vs LAB
Hauraki-WaikatoLAB 35.53% vs MANALAB 35.53% vs MANALAB 33.05% vs MAORILAB 33.05% vs MAORI
HelensvilleNAT 60.24% vs LABNAT 44.98% vs LABNAT 51.44% vs LABNAT 45.11% vs LAB
HunuaNAT 48.83% vs LABNAT 50.86% vs LABNAT 46.47% vs LABNAT 48.17% vs LAB
Hutt SouthLAB 15.05% vs NATLAB 14.94% vs NATNAT 5.34% vs LABNAT 7.39% vs LAB
Ikaroa-RawhitiLAB 37.61% vs MAORILAB 37.61% vs MAORILAB 34.60% vs MAORILAB 34.60% vs MAORI
IlamNAT 40.07% vs LABNAT 40.07% vs LABNAT 39.16% vs LABNAT 39.16% vs LAB
InvercargillNAT 19.79% vs LABNAT 19.79% vs LABNAT 21.15% vs LABNAT 21.15% vs LAB
KaikōuraNAT 34.54% vs LABNAT 34.54% vs LABNAT 35.55% vs LABNAT 35.55% vs LAB
KelstonLAB 30.47% vs NATLAB 17.14% vs NAT
ManaLAB 6.64% vs NATLAB 6.64% vs NATNAT 2.19% vs LABNAT 2.19% vs LAB
MāngereLAB 63.30% vs NATLAB 63.30% vs NATLAB 57.46% vs NATLAB 57.46% vs NAT
Manukau EastLAB 62.96% vs NATLAB 63.03% vs NATLAB 47.07% vs NATLAB 46.86% vs NAT
ManurewaLAB 36.41% vs NATLAB 36.41% vs NATLAB 31.30% vs NATLAB 31.30% vs NAT
MaungakiekieNAT 9.31% vs LABNAT 4.88% vs LABNAT 6.74% vs LABNAT 2.75% vs LAB
Mt AlbertLAB 31.69% vs NATLAB 24.78% vs NATLAB 0.41% vs NATNAT 5.67% vs LAB
Mt RoskillLAB 23.21% vs NATLAB 7.56% vs NATLAB 4.07% vs NATNAT 8.13% vs LAB
NapierNAT 11.12% vs LABNAT 11.81% vs LABNAT 19.52% vs LABNAT 20.23% vs LAB
NelsonNAT 20.51% vs LABNAT 20.51% vs LABNAT 18.08% vs LABNAT 18.08% vs LAB
New LynnLAB 15.92% vs NATLAB 14.18% vs NATNAT 2.22% vs LABNAT 4.10% vs LAB
New PlymouthNAT 12.90% vs LABNAT 14.44% vs LABNAT 27.44% vs LABNAT 28.15% vs LAB
North ShoreNAT 41.87% vs LABNAT 41.87% vs LABNAT 45.93% vs LABNAT 45.93% vs LAB
NorthcoteNAT 29.00% vs LABNAT 29.00% vs LABNAT 27.24% vs LABNAT 27.24% vs LAB
NorthlandNAT 35.95% vs LABNAT 35.95% vs LABNAT 32.55% vs LABNAT 32.55% vs LAB
ŌhariuUNF 3.74% vs LABUNF 0.29% vs LABNAT 23.07% vs LABNAT 21.89% vs LAB
ŌtakiNAT 14.09% vs LABNAT 14.02% vs LABNAT 17.20% vs LABNAT 17.44% vs LAB
PakurangaNAT 44.06% vs LABNAT 44.06% vs LABNAT 44.19% vs LABNAT 44.19% vs LAB
Palmerston NorthLAB 10.20% vs NATLAB 10.20% vs NATNAT 10.24% vs LABNAT 10.24% vs LAB
PapakuraNAT 32.57% vs LABNAT 31.59% vs LABNAT 25.42% vs LABNAT 24.55% vs LAB
Port HillsLAB 9.53% vs NATNAT 8.01% vs LABNAT 16.02% vs LABNAT 25.62% vs LAB
RangitataNAT 18.62% vs LABNAT 17.88% vs LABNAT 26.70% vs LABNAT 26.29% vs LAB
RangitīkeiNAT 30.21% vs LABNAT 29.55% vs LABNAT 32.75% vs LABNAT 31.79% vs LAB
RimutakaLAB 9.87% vs NATLAB 9.74% vs NATNAT 11.62% vs LABNAT 12.93% vs LAB
RodneyNAT 32.31% vs CONNAT 31.01% vs CONNAT 48.72% vs LABNAT 47.08% vs LAB
RongotaiLAB 25.14% vs NATLAB 25.14% vs NATLAB 1.19% vs NATLAB 1.19% vs NAT
RotoruaNAT 24.04% vs LABNAT 29.43% vs LABNAT 29.32% vs LABNAT 32.71% vs LAB
SelwynNAT 53.88% vs LABNAT 49.46% vs LABNAT 46.52% vs LABNAT 43.69% vs LAB
TāmakiNAT 48.46% vs LABNAT 48.90% vs LABNAT 46.84% vs LABNAT 47.30% vs LAB
Tamaki MakaurauMAORI 5.31% vs LABMAORI 5.31% vs LABLAB 27.05% vs MAORILAB 27.05% vs MAORI
Taranaki-King CountryNAT 50.42% vs LABNAT 50.56% vs LABNAT 44.49% vs LABNAT 44.98% vs LAB
TaupōNAT 42.92% vs LABNAT 42.92% vs LABNAT 36.03% vs LABNAT 36.03% vs LAB
TaurangaNAT 48.24% vs LABNAT 47.63% vs LABNAT 39.22% vs LABNAT 38.69% vs LAB
Te AtatūLAB 18.38% vs NATLAB 12.48% vs NATNAT 2.28% vs LABNAT 0.63% vs LAB
Te Tai HauauruMAORI 18.45% vs LABMAORI 18.45% vs LABLAB 20.98% vs MAORILAB 20.98% vs MAORI
Te Tai TokerauMANA 6.21% vs LABMANA 6.21% vs LABLAB 10.17% vs MANALAB 10.17% vs MANA
Te Tai TongaLAB 8.83% vs MAORILAB 8.83% vs MAORILAB 22.70% vs GRNLAB 22.70% vs GRN
TukitukiNAT 29.12% vs LABNAT 29.12% vs LABNAT 28.46% vs LABNAT 28.46% vs LAB
Upper HarbourNAT 30.07% vs LABNAT 30.75% vs LAB
WaiarikiMAORI 10.59% vs MANAMAORI 10.59% vs MANALAB 13.84% vs MAORILAB 13.84% vs MAORI
WaikatoNAT 46.50% vs LABNAT 47.12% vs LABNAT 43.54% vs LABNAT 43.92% vs LAB
WaimakaririNAT 1.81% vs LABNAT 3.02% vs LABNAT 33.48% vs LABNAT 35.01% vs LAB
WairarapaNAT 21.01% vs LABNAT 21.01% vs LABNAT 28.23% vs LABNAT 28.23% vs LAB
WaitakereNAT 0.03% vs LAB0NAT 3.07% vs LAB0.00
WaitakiNAT 37.43% vs LABNAT 37.33% vs LABNAT 33.87% vs LABNAT 33.79% vs LAB
Wellington CentralLAB 16.64% vs NATLAB 17.40% vs NATNAT 10.73% vs GRNNAT 10.14% vs GRN
West Coast-TasmanLAB 7.66% vs NATLAB 7.66% vs NATNAT 18.55% vs LABNAT 18.55 % vs LAB
WhanganuiNAT 16.18% vs LABNAT 16.93% vs LABNAT 20.15% vs LABNAT 20.53 % vs LAB
WhangareiNAT 36.74% vs LABNAT 36.74% vs LABNAT 30.33% vs LABNAT 30.33 % vs LAB
WigramLAB 4.81% vs NATLAB 3.18% vs NATNAT 13.93% vs LABNAT 15.73 % vs LAB
Electoral boundaries in Auckland for 2008 and 2011 elections.
Electoral boundaries in Auckland for 2008 and 2011 elections.
Proposed electoral boundaries in Auckland for the 2014 election.
Proposed electoral boundaries in Auckland for the 2014 election.
Electoral boundaries in Christchurch for 2008 and 2011 elections.
Electoral boundaries in Christchurch for 2008 and 2011 elections.

 

Proposed electoral boundaries in Christchurch for the 2014 election.
Proposed electoral boundaries in Christchurch for the 2014 election.
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4 COMMENTS

  1. Amazing work. I probably would’ve attempted to have calculated the effects of the boundary changes myself at some stage, so this saved me an awful lot of time.

    My picks for seats that will change hands: Tamaki Makaurau, Maungakiekie, Napier, Ohariu Waimakariri and Christchurch Central to Labour, and Epsom to National.

    Auckland Central to go down to the wire.

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