Clive Palmer’s push to take the Sunshine Coast seat of Fairfax off the Liberal National Party looked like it had been successful on election night, but a very poor performance on special votes has Palmer’s lead falling so fast that it is likely to reach zero before the counting finishes.
As of last night, Palmer was leading by 507 votes in Fairfax.
|Vote type||PUP %||LNP %||To be counted||Projected diff.|
Clive Palmer is performing extremely badly on postal votes. Over 2000 more postal votes are expected, and if they break as badly as those postal votes already counted, the LNP will gain enough votes to take the lead.
Palmer should gain some votes from the 2266 absentee votes, but he is also losing in pre-poll votes, which should cancel that out.
Overall, these figures ad up to a net gain of 509 votes for the LNP, which turns Fairfax into almost a dead heat.
These figures project an LNP win by seven votes. If the result is that close, expect court challenges and a complete recount. A win by a few hundred votes by either Ted O’Brien or Clive Palmer is also still a possibility.
As with every other seat, I’ll now focus on the geographic breakdown of the vote. I have broken the electorate into the same four subdivisions as before the election: Nambour, North-East, South-East and West.
|Voter Group||GRN %||ALP %||PUP 2CP||Total votes||% of ordinary votes|
Clive Palmer won a majority in three out of four areas, ranging from 54.5% in the north-east (covering Coolum Beach) to 57.5% in the Nambour area. The LNP won a narrow majority in the south-east, which covers Buderim and Maroochydore, and is the largest part of the ordinary vote.
Clive Palmer is losing the ‘other votes’ badly, mainly due to a poor performance on postal and pre-poll votes. If election day votes were the only ones counted, Palmer would win easily.
After the fold is a map of the electorate, and a break-out map of the south-east of the electorate.