Two days out from the Western Australian state election, the Liberal/National alliance looks set to grow its numbers, and the Liberals are likely to win a majority in the Legislative Assembly in their own right.
Recent polling shows the Liberal/National alliance at 57-58% of the two-party-preferred vote, compared to 51.9% at the 2008 election. Some polls suggest that the ALP’s primary vote has been hit, while others suggest that Labor’s primary vote has held up, but there has been a decline in the vote for the Greens.
In the Legislative Assembly, there are a tranche of marginal Labor seats which are considered vulnerable to the Liberal Party, and are likely to fall. These seats are Albany, Balcatta, Collie-Preston, Forrestfield, Gosnells, Joondalup, Kwinana, Morley and West Swan. These nine seats are all held by margins of less than 5%.
While there will be local factors in these seats and some seats may buck the trend, most of these seats are expected to fall. The most likely seat to swing against the statewide swing is Morley, where Labor was hit by a split in their vote in 2008, and has become a notional Labor seat thanks to a favourable redistribution.
There may be other seats that fall, but those nine seats would give the Liberal Party a slim majority in their own right.
The Nationals are also tipped to win the seat of Pilbara, which is held by the ALP by 7.2%. The sitting member is retiring, and Nationals leader Brendon Grylls has shifted from his safe seat to run in the seat. Leaked polling suggests Grylls is set to gain the seat.
The Nationals have never previously won a seat in the Mining and Pastoral region, but look set to dominate the region. In addition to Pilbara, the Nationals gained the seat of North West Central when the sitting MP defected from the ALP in 2009. The Nationals are favoured to win Kalgoorlie, where the sitting independent MP is retiring, and are considered an outside chance to win Eyre off the Liberal Party.
The Liberal Party is also likely to win the independent-held seat of Alfred Cove in the inner south of Perth.
The seat of Fremantle was won by Greens candidate Adele Carles at a 2009 by-election. Carles resigned from the Greens in 2010 and has been close to the government since that time. Carles is running again, and the Greens are running hard for Fremantle, but Labor is tipped to win the seat back.
In the Legislative Council, changes will be less dramatic but the conservative forces are likely to make gains.
The Legislative Council is gerrymandered so that half the seats are outside of Perth – so the Liberals are not within reach of winning a majority without the Nationals.
In three regions, there is no realistic chance of the “left” or “right” gaining a seat. It is possible that the right could gain a fourth seat in North Metro or a fifth seat in Mining and Pastoral, and there is a small chance that the left could gain a third seat in South West.
In East Metropolitan and South Metropolitan, the Liberal Party have little chance of winning an extra seat, and the race will be between the Greens and Labor for the third left seat.
In North Metropolitan, the Liberal Party holds three seats and the ALP holds two. The Greens are in danger of losing their seat to the Liberal Party or a right-wing minor party candidate, most likely from the Australian Christians.
In South West, the right won four seats out of six in 2008. The Greens are aiming to win a seat back off the Nationals or Liberals.
In the Agricultural region, the Nationals managed three out of six seats in 2008. Former Nationals leader Max Trenorden is running as an independent, and is in with a chance of winning a seat off the Nationals. The Shooters and Fishers may also have a chance.
In the Mining and Pastoral region, the Greens are likely to lose a seat to either a second National or a Shooters and Fishers candidate.
You can read more at the Tally Room guide to the Western Australian state election, and I’ll be covering results on Saturday night.
I hope there’s a live blog page here, or elsewhere, on election night.
I remember finding such a page for the NSW election two years, but here I’ve found nothing to date. Even the pages that require people to “log in” to comment have nothing.
GRRRRRR!!!!
None of the candidates have a Telstra Lease this time around so it’s been a bit quieter than previous elections………
It’s all right, MDMC. I found one!
I’m a Sydneysider who’s followed elections for 15 years, by the way. Where are you from and how long have you been following them?
Yep Warren – there will be a liveblog up soon.
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