West Swan – WA 2013

ALP 4.1%

Incumbent MP
Rita Saffioti, since 2008.

 

Map of West Swan’s 2008 and 2013 boundaries. 2008 boundaries appear as red line, 2013 boundaries appear as white area. Click to enlarge.

Geography
North-eastern Perth. West Swan covers southwestern parts of Swan local government area, Caversham, West Swan, Henley Brook, Ellenbrook and parts of Ballajura and Beechboro, on the western bank of the Swan River.

Redistribution
West Swan lost its westernmost parts around Landsdale and Ballajura to Girrawheen and Mirrabooka. The ALP’s margin was reduced from 4.4% to 4.1%

History
West Swan is a new seat created at the 2008 redistribution. The seat largely replaced the former seat of Ballajura, along with parts of other seats.

Ballajura had been held by the Liberal Party’s Rhonda Parker for one term from 1996 to 2001. John D’Orazio won the seat for the ALP in 2001, and was re-elected in 2005. D’Orazio left the ALP in 2006, and ran unsuccessfully for the neighbouring seat of Morley in 2008.

In 2008, West Swan was won by Rita Saffioti, then chief of staff to Premier Alan Carpenter. Her margin was cut from 10.6% to 4.4%.

Candidates

Assessment
West Swan is a marginal Labor seat, but not one of the most marginal. Saffioti should benefit from a new personal vote, but a 4.1% margin is very vulnerable to the Liberal Party if results reflect current polling.

2008 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Rita Saffioti ALP 8,612 46.2 -7.1
Rod Henderson LIB 7,017 37.6 +5.9
Michael Boswell GRN 1,676 9.0 +3.9
Barbara Butler CDP 872 4.7 +0.9
Chris Fayle IND 483 2.6 +2.6

2008 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Rita Saffioti ALP 10,156 54.4 -6.2
Rod Henderson LIB 8,497 45.6 +6.2

 

Polling booths in West Swan at the 2008 WA state election. North in green, East in blue, West in orange.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three parts. Three booths are isolated from the rest of the seat in the northeastern corner of the seat, and these have been grouped as North. The rest of the booths have been grouped as West and East.

The ALP polled around 49-50% of the vote in the southern parts of the seat, compared to 33-35% for the Liberal Party. The Liberal Party topped the poll in the north, with 44% compared to 40.8% for Labor.

Voter group ALP % LIB % GRN % Total votes % of ordinary votes
West 49.05 35.25 8.37 6,967 44.57
North 40.83 44.08 9.03 6,475 41.42
East 49.84 33.76 8.73 2,189 14.00
Other votes 44.81 35.40 11.80 3,881
Labor primary votes in West Swan at the 2008 WA state election.
Liberal primary votes in West Swan at the 2008 WA state election.

6 COMMENTS

  1. My prediction: This one could go either way, especially with the growth in the Ellenbrook area since the last election. All I can say is that the result will likely be within 2-3% either way.

  2. Ellenbook also got transferred into West Swan from Swan Hills. Frank Alban’s probably pretty happy… after the Liberal promise to build a train line to Ellenbrook which was revoked as a non-core promise soon after the election, his most annoyed voters have been sent elsewhere. As it is, West Swan is very unlikely to turn blue. I haven’t seen any advertising propaganda by Saffioti, but I would guess she’s running hard on the issue. She’d be a fool not to be.

    Meanwhile, Natasha Cheung has heaps of posters in windows up and down William St in Northbridge (it’s a very Asian area), and has done for about six months before the two main candidates for Perth started putting theirs up. Even now it’s Hyde vs Cheung, with Evangel an also-ran, in the battle of the posters. It’s strange to see.

  6. There are quite a few seats at this election like West Swan, where local factors are favouring Labor but the tide is going in the opposite direction.

    It will depend on whether the local factors can hold up against the statewide swing.

Comments are closed.