Alfred Cove – WA 2013

IND vs LIB 0.2%

Incumbent MP
Janet Woollard, since 2001.

 

Map of Alfred Cove’s 2008 and 2013 boundaries. 2008 boundaries appear as red line, 2013 boundaries appear as white area. Click to enlarge.

Geography
Inner Southern Perth. Alfred Cove lies on the southern shore of the Swan River. The seat covers northern parts of Melville local government area, including the suburbs of Applecross, Ardross, Attadale, Bicton and parts of Alfred Cove, Booragoon, Melville and Mount Pleasant.

Redistribution
There was a small change to the borders of Alfred Cove along the border with Fremantle. About 2000 voters were changed in each direction. This reduced Woollard’s margin from 1.0% to 0.2%.

History
The seat of Alfred Cove was created in 1996 as a notional safe Liberal seat, with a margin of over 20%.

In 1996, sitting Liberal Member for Melville Doug Shave decided to run for the new seat of Alfred Cove. He was challenged for preselection by Penny Hearne.

Shave narrowly defeated Hearne, and she resigned from the Liberal Party to run as an independent. Shave narrowly held on by a 2.4% margin.

In 2001, the ALP did not run in Alfred Cove, and a number of minor parties and independents targeted the seat.

Janet Woollard ran for the Liberals for Forests party, and polled just over 20% of the primary vote, while another independent also polled 20% of the vote. Shave’s vote fell to under 33%, and he lost to Woollard on preferences. Woollard achieved a 7.4% margin.

Woollard’s margin has been reduced at every election since 2001. The vote fell to 54.6% in 2005 and 51% in 2008. The recent redistribution reduced her margin further.

Candidates

Assessment
Janet Woollard’s margin has declined at every election since her first victory. In an environment where the Liberal Party is strengthening, it seems likely that she could lose her seat to the Liberal challenger.

2008 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Chris Back LIB 8,628 43.1 +5.2
Janet Woollard IND 5,094 25.5 +1.5
Catherine Barratt ALP 4,059 20.3 -2.6
Michael Bennett GRN 1,907 9.5 +3.2
Stephen Wardell-Johnson CDP 314 1.6 -0.5

2008 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Janet Woollard IND 10,200 51.0 -3.6
Chris Back LIB 9,795 49.0 +3.6

 

Polling booths in Alfred Cove at the 2008 WA state election. East in blue, West in green.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into two halves, divided into east and west.

The vote for Janet Woollard was relatively consistent across the seat. The Liberal vote was much higher in the east, while the Labor and Greens vote was higher in the west.

Voter group LIB % IND % ALP % GRN % Total votes % of ordinary votes
East 47.23 26.28 16.23 8.51 8,818 59.37
West 39.92 25.19 23.36 10.02 6,035 40.63
Other votes 43.54 24.85 20.82 9.52 4,116
Primary votes for independent candidate Janet Woollard at the 2008 WA state election.
Liberal primary votes at the 2008 WA state election.
Labor primary votes at the 2008 WA state election.

10 COMMENTS

  1. My prediction: Considering how Woollard came within 1% of defeat last time, the Liberals should easily pick this up.

  2. Prediction: LIB Gain

    Rationale: The general fall in support for Independents seen nationwide and an expected strengthening in the Liberal vote.

    See, I made my comment slightly longer to please you folks.

  3. Janet Woollard was helped in 2001 and 2005 by the Libs running unpopular Court govt ministers. Shave was one of the ministers whose uselessness took down that govt in the first place (the finance brokers scandal – that was the issue the other independent, Denise Brailey ran on). Then Graham Kierath, who was responsible for the WA version of WorkChoices and then lost Riverton, tried to get back in to parliament here.

    Meanwhile, Woollard’s had her own scandal – her son drunkenly crashed a boat into a bridge and seriously injured a passenger, and the recent court case about it got heaps of media coverage and bad publicity for her. All together, I’d call this pretty much a dead cert for the Libs.

  5. Apparently the Lib candidate swapped seats with disabled candidate Estelle Gom and didn’t rise from his chair to shake her hand upon first greeting. Unlike the other decent candidates.
    He could be counted out due to ignorance and arrogance.

  6. You would think the Liberals have got this one sewn up. Still, 12 years is a pretty good effort for an Independent in an urban seat…..

  9. Woollard in 2005: the only time I’ve ever voted for a conservative candidate ahead of Labor (partly because of the hilarious issue around Melville Council trying to ban her posters in Applecross, partly because I really, really wanted to keep Kierath out of parliament). I wouldn’t again, though.

  10. Apparently it was the Labor man that failed to stand to shake Estelle Gom’s hand not the Liberal. A sweet victory for him. Estelle Gom is left wing, and founder of the fast gaining membership party,called the Social Security Union Party which is of Federal interest.

Comments are closed.