Shepparton – Victoria 2018

IND 2.6% vs NAT

Incumbent MP
Suzanna Sheed, since 2014.

Geography
Northern Victoria. Shepparton covers the major centres of Shepparton, Mooroopna, Nathalia and Numurkah. The electorate covers most of the Greater Shepparton council area, and western parts of Moira Shire.

History
The seat of Shepparton first existed from 1945 to 1955, and again since 1967. In that time it had always been won by the Country/National Party, until the last election when it was won by an independent.

Peter Ross-Edwards held Shepparton for first the Country Party and then National Party from 1967 until his resignation in 1991.

The 1991 by-election was won by National candidate Don Kilgour. He was re-elected in 1992, 1996 and 1999, and retired in 2002.

In 2002, the National Party’s Jeanette Powell, who had served as an MLC for North-East province since 1996, won the seat in a close contest with the Liberal candidate. She was re-elected in 2006 and 2010.

Jeanette Powell served as a minister from 2010 to early 2014, when she moved to the backbench after announcing her plans to retire at the 2014 election.

The Nationals lost Shepparton in 2014 to independent candidate Suzanna Sheed.

Candidates

Assessment
This seat is hard to predict. First-term independents often strengthen their margin after four years of incumbency, but Sheed’s margin is quite tight and she could conceivably lose to the Nationals. A lot will depend on how local voters judge her performance.

2014 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Greg Barr Nationals 14,27235.4-18.4
Suzanna SheedIndependent13,21132.7+32.7
Rodney Higgins Labor 7,21817.9+1.7
Michael BourkeCountry Alliance3,3108.2-11.5
Damien Stevens Greens 1,3653.4-1.3
Diane TeasdaleIndependent9942.5+2.5
Informal2,5045.8

2014 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%
Suzanna SheedIndependent21,24752.6
Greg Barr Nationals 19,12347.4

2014 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Greg Barr Nationals 25,54663.3-12.6
Rodney Higgins Labor 14,82436.7+12.6

Booth breakdown

Booths in Shepparton have been divided into four areas. Polling places in Shepparton council area have been split between Central, North and South-West, with Shepparton Central covering the urban area. The remainder of the electorate, in Moira Shire, has also been grouped together.

Suzanna Sheed won sizeable two-candidate-preferred majorities in Shepparton Central (59%) and Shepparton South-West (57%), while the Nationals won sizeable majorities in the less populous Moira (58.7%) and Shepparton North (58%) areas.

Labor came third, with a primary vote ranging from 6% in Shepparton North to 18% in Shepparton South-West.

Voter groupALP prim %IND 2CP %Total votes% of votes
Shepparton Central17.958.812,97432.1
Shepparton South-West18.157.06,31715.6
Moira15.641.35,09312.6
Shepparton North6.442.01,4483.6
Other votes24.644.23,0857.6
Pre-poll18.451.711,45328.4

Election results in Shepparton at the 2014 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred (Independent vs Nationals) votes and Labor primary votes.

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14 COMMENTS

  1. As far as predicting outcomes are concerned – once a rural seat has been gained by an independent, I always chalk that seat up as a retain for the incumbent for as long as they stand as a candidate, barring any significant controversies.

    Sheed hasn’t had any major blunder AFIAK so she should be safe and should have a swing in her favour come polling day.

  2. Being a resident of the district, I can tell she’s a popular member who is actually getting things done for the area, unlike the last few decades of partisan neglect. She’ll easily retain the seat.

  3. It’s remarkable that Sheed managed such a high primary vote in her first go, and that it seems to have almost all come out of the National vote.

    Expect Labor’s vote to halve here as progressives back in the independent-that-beat-the-Nat, which should be more than enough to get Sheed over the line, likely with a decent swing. With the Libs contesting, the Nats could well suffer another double digit negative swing.

  4. Can you check the booth categories? The names look more suited for a seat in Gippsland than for Shepparton.

  5. Peter Schwarz has won the community preselection and will be the National’s candidate for Shepparton.

  6. Now that Sheed has the budget investments under her belt, she should be fine, barring a surge for the Coalition somehow.

  7. Cheryl Hammer already has campaign posters going up around Shepparton, the Libs really want this seat. It won’t happen though, as Libs will very likely only get preferences from the Nats and vice versa.

  8. Independent retain here, with the help from Labor and the Greens.

    What will be interesting is to see if the Nats or Libs finish second.

    Given the strong campaign being run by Cheryl Hammer, I’d guess the Liberals, but the seats long history with the Nationals would suggest they’d be favourite to finish in the top two.

  9. The problem the coalition has at trying to gain this seat back is that they’d need to get a collective primary of just over 50% to have even a hope of gaining.

    With Sheed and Labor both taking a good chunk of the vote each, and the greens and other minor parties getting a couple per cent each, there might not be 50% for them to get.

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