Victoria Archive


Vic redistribution – final(ish) map finished

The AEC announced its final decision for the Victorian federal redistribution on Wednesday. That day I published my new estimates of the margins, and I’ve now also finished my map of the new electoral boundaries.

I am not 100% sure these are correct, because the AEC did not publish data or maps on Wednesday. They simply published descriptions of the changes they made to the draft boundaries (albeit detailed ones). I believe I have accurately drawn all the changes that involved voters moving but I will need to wait for the publication of the maps and data on July 13 to double-check.

You can download this map as a Google Earth file, or browse the map below.


ACT and Victorian redistributions – here are the maps

I’ve finished making Google Earth maps for the draft federal boundaries for Victoria and the ACT, and they are now available for download:

I’ve also turned them into interactive maps below the fold, which show the 2016 and 2019 boundaries (you can toggle each layer on and off). Enjoy!


Polwarth and South-West Coast by-elections

7:25pm – The Liberal Party looks set to retain both seats. At the moment they are on 47.7% in Polwarth, which should easily be enough. In South-West Coast they are on 36%, but with ex-Labor candidate Roy Reekie second on 17.7% ahead of the Country Party and the Nationals. This should also be enough.

6:18pm – Polls have now closed in these two state by-elections for these seats in south-western Victoria.

I haven’t done my traditional booth-matching work for these by-elections, but will post occasional updates as results flow in.


By-elections triggered in Victoria

Following dual resignations of senior Liberals on August 31, we’ll be seeing two Victorian state by-elections in neighbouring rural seats in south-western Victoria later this month.

Former Premier Denis Napthine and former minister Terry Mulder both resigned from their seats on August 31, after losing power in November 2014.

Napthine’s seat of South-West Coast covers Warrnambool and Glenelg in the south-west corner of Victoria, and Mulder’s seat of Polwarth lies immediately to the east of South-West Coast, covering Anglesea, Lorne, Lismore, Colac, Camperdown, Terang and Mortlake.

Both seats are held by the Liberal Party by margins of around 11%. The Labor Party has announced that they won’t contest either seat, while the Nationals have announced they will run in both seats.

The date for the by-elections has not yet been set.

Read the guide to the Polwarth by-election.

Read the guide to the South-West Coast by-election.


Gippsland South by-election guide

Before the NSW election on 28 March, we have another election coming up this Saturday.

Voters in Gippsland South in Victoria will be voting in a state by-election to replace Peter Ryan, the former leader of the Nationals and Deputy Premier in the last government. The ALP is not running, but the seat will be contested by both the Nationals and the Liberal Party.

Read the guide here.


Victorian local government election review – the rest of the story

Earlier this week, I wrote a blog post about the Independent Local Government Electoral Review Panel in Victoria, chaired by former federal Liberal MP Petro Georgiou. In particular I focused on recommendations to modify the local government franchise, by extending the right to vote to all permanent residents (ie. non-citizens) living in the local government area, removing the second vote for businesses in the City of Melbourne, and generally simplifying and clarifying the process for non-residents to gain the right to vote in all council elections.

The review’s reports, however, covered much more than the franchise, so I thought I would return to the topic and summarise some of the most interesting recommendations, below the fold.

There are two reports – stage 1 and stage 2. I have listed the recommendation number for those recommendations I have discussed.

Read the rest of this entry »


City of Melbourne to end double votes for business?

While the NSW Governments and the Shooters and Fishers push ahead with legislation to institute the “Melbourne model” of two votes for each business and corporation paying rates and owning property in the city, an independent review of Victorian local government has recommended an end to the very same practice.

The independent Local Government Electoral Review Panel, chaired by former federal MP Petro Georgiou, has released two lengthy reports after a year of consultations and discussion papers. The panel’s two reports cover a wide variety of issues, and I will return at a later date to consider the report in full, but the report is particularly interesting in recommending significant changes to voting rights for local council elections.

The report is recommending that all permanent residents be given the right to vote in the local council where they live, even if they are not a citizen, and is recommending a significant simplification of the process by which non-residents gain the right to vote.

The report points out that the current process of enrolment fails tests for equity and transparency, for example:

The right to vote can be transferred from one party to another. Under section 15 of the Local Government Act 1989, other than those commercial tenants who are on the council’s rate records, if a commercial tenant wants to apply to vote as a ratepayer, they need the landlord’s consent. The
landlord can then choose whether or not to transfer their vote to a tenant. This is inequitable and anachronistic.

The potential for chaos has also been exposed under the proposed bill for the City of Sydney, as revealed by Sean Nicholls in the Sydney Morning Herald on Friday:

The information provided was it would mean any landholder who pays rates in the City of Sydney will get a maximum of two votes, regardless of the number of businesses operating in the building they own.

Those businesses would not be entitled to vote unless the ratepayer nominates them as one of the two eligible voters.

Currently all business owners who pay more than $5,000 a year in rent have the right to vote but are not automatically enrolled.

As a result, thousands of business owners who meet the rent threshold and are eligible to vote would lose the right under Mr Borsak’s bill.

Giving certain individuals or corporations the power to choose which of their tenants is given the right to vote opens the process up for further abuse.

Click to enlarge.

Click to enlarge.

Currently the City of Melbourne is the only council in Victoria where businesses are given two votes, but the process is needlessly complicated across the state, as seen in this diagram produced by the Review’s secretariat (right).

The Review’s report has significant implications for the political debate in New South Wales around voting rights for the City of Sydney.

The fact that a committee led by a former Liberal MP, and appointed by a Liberal state government, is so sceptical of double voting for businesses should demonstrate the folly of extending the experiment to NSW.

If these reforms are implemented, the business vote will be significantly reduced in City of Melbourne elections. At the moment, non-resident voters make up almost 60% of the electoral roll for the City of Melbourne.

In addition, the enfranchisement of permanent residents in council elections would be a significant step forward, and I think a positive step towards voting rights being extended to all those who a permanent members of a community, not just those who have achieved citizenship.


Victorian redistribution draft boundaries map finished

Following on from the completion of the NSW draft boundaries map a fortnight ago, I have now finished the Google Earth maps of the new draft boundaries for the Victorian state redistribution.

Electoral maps have been posted for the Legislative Assembly and the Legislative Council. I’ve also updated the time-series map, which can be toggled to show the results for the 2002, 2006 and 2010 elections, to include the 2014 draft boundaries.

vicredist banner

The draft boundaries have seen significant changes to electoral boundaries in northern and western Victoria. One seat was abolished in Eastern Metropolitan, with a second seat north of the river (Ivanhoe) shifted into the East Metro upper house region.

A seat was also abolished in Northern Victoria, with Yan Yean shifted from North Metro upper house region to make up for the abolition.

Two Western Metropolitan region seats were transferred into Northern Metropolitan region, with two new electorates created to make up the difference.

Numerous other seats were renamed or redrawn in different ways, but the two seats created in the west of the city, and the two seats abolished in the east of the city and in the north of the state, were the major shifts.

When you look at the statistics, it appears the Electoral Boundaries Commission has erred on the side of making less changes.

Region2013 quotas2018 quotas
Eastern Metropolitan11.064110.6346
Eastern Victoria11.095011.2220
Northern Metropolitan10.840211.3532
Northern Victoria11.057911.1974
South-Eastern Metropolitan10.905410.6503
Southern Metropolitan10.762010.3533
Western Metropolitan11.187311.4729
Western Victoria11.088111.1164

The Southern Metro and South East Metro regions have been drawn with substantially less than 11 quotas, despite a projected decline up to the 2018 election. Southern Metro in particular has been drawn with 10.76 quotas in 2013, and projected to cover only 10.35 quotas in 2018.

The Eastern and South Eastern regions are also projected to be more than one third of a quota short of eleven full quotas by 2018. Adding up these three regions on the south side of the river, and you are 1.36 quotas short of the full 33 quotas in 2018.

Meanwhile, Eastern Victoria, Northern Victoria, Western Victoria and Western Metro have been drawn with more than 11 quotas despite projected growth over the next five years. These four regions are already 0.43 quotas over the average, and this is projected to increase to over a full quota by 2018.

The Commissioners have sensibly drawn North Metro with less than a full 11 quotas. North Metro is projected to grow by over 40% of a quota by 2018.

Overall, the Victorian Commissioners have gone for an opposite approach to the NSW Commissioners – minimising changes at the cost of likely creating substantial variations from the average by the 2018 election.


NSW and Victorian redistribution updates

Last Thursday, the Victorian Electoral Boundaries Commission released the draft boundaries for the Victorian state redistribution. These boundaries are expected to cover the 2014 and 2018 state elections.

Antony Green has produced his estimates of the margins for all eighty-eight electorates.

In short, two Nationals and one Liberal seat were abolished. A new Liberal seat and two new Labor seats were created. Four other marginal Labor seats have flipped to be notionally Liberal or National.

On paper, the Nationals have lost one seat and Labor have lost two, with the Liberal Party gaining three. However the swing for Labor to win government has been reduced. On current boundaries, the ALP needs to win two seats with a swing of 1.2% to form a majority government. On new boundaries, the ALP will need to win four seats, but only need a 0.4% swing.

New South Wales is also in the process of redrawing its boundaries.

Two weeks after draft boundaries were released for the New South Wales state redistribution, I have finally completed the Google Earth map of the state.

You can download the map here.

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I’ve previously blogged about this redistribution, and Antony Green has already posted a similar analysis to the one he did for Victoria. In addition, he has released a more detailed research paper with estimates for margins and primary votes for all 93 electorates.

I have also done one extra bit of analysis, looking at which parts of the state have been drawn under- or over-quota.

The Commissioners were required to fit electorates to two quotas: within 10% of the average for the number of voters as of February 2013, and the estimated number of voters as of April 2015.

Region2013 quotas2015 quotas
Central Sydney10.816910.8921
Hunter & Central Coast14.039713.9789
Northern NSW6.99526.9832
Northern Sydney11.071211.0423
South-East NSW9.15289.1280
Southern Sydney5.11725.0696
South-West Sydney10.817610.8978
Western NSW10.223010.1182
Western Sydney14.766414.8897

The Commissioners have clearly chosen to draw seats larger than the average in regions with a declining population (Northern Sydney, South-East NSW, Southern Sydney, Western NSW), and draw smaller seats in regions with a growing population (Central Sydney, South-West Sydney, Western Sydney). The Hunter, Central Coast and the north of the state have been drawn very close to the quota.

These numbers reflect the approach of the ALP, rather than the Nationals who advocated using the loose quota rules to draw less-populated electorates in regional areas. The Liberal Party and the Greens proposed boundaries that stuck very closely to the quota.

The Commissioners only drew three districts that diverge from the 2015 quota by more than 3.5%, and thus would have been prohibited under the previous rules. One of these seats is the far-western Barwon, that is declining in population rather quickly. The other two are Shellharbour and Wollongong in the Illawarra region. Both are also declining, and have been drawn to be above the quota.

UPDATE: Edward Boyce in comments has pointed out an error. In addition to the three seats that have been drawn more than 3.5% over the quota, the Western Sydney seats of Camden and Riverstone, which are both growing very fast, have been drawn more than 3.5% under quota.

UPDATE 2: My error: the former threshold was 3%, not 3.5%, and eleven electorates vary by more than 3%.


Lyndhurst by-election results wrap-up

Update: results now include prepoll figures that came in late on the night. The Greens have overtaken the Sex Party, coming fifth. The DLP have overtaken Hung Vo for third place.


Lyndhurst’s by-election will certainly see Labor candidate Martin Pakula elected, but the results were more interesting than expected. The swing against Labor currently sits on 14.5%.

Results from polling places and postal votes have been counted, with early votes and provisional votes yet to come.

On the current figures, the Family First candidate is coming second, followed in quick succession by independent candidate Hung Vo, and the DLP, the Greens and the Sex Party.

Martin LeahySXP2,6328.5+8.5
Nina SpringleGRN2,9109.4+3.2
Hung VoIND3,0179.7+6.1
Bobby SinghIND6202.0+2.0
Stephen NowlandFF4,38914.1+9.3
David LinakerIND1,3534.4+4.4
Martin PakulaALP12,69840.9-14.6
Geraldine GonsalvezDLP3,42211.0+9.8

The result is disappointing for Labor. Despite the fact that they should comfortably retain the seat, they lost a huge chunk of their vote in a race with no high-profile opponent and no Liberal candidate at all.

The increase in vote for the independent and two right-wing minor candidates isn’t surprising, as 27.8% of the vote had to flow somewhere in the absence of the Liberal Party.

In these circumstances, it’s not surprising that these voters largely favoured Family First and the DLP over the Greens.

The Greens would be disappointed coming fifth or sixth in the seat, but despite being overtaken by other candidates, the result was still an increase in the Greens vote. Currently the Greens are up 2.8%, and only went backwards in one booth.

On the night the notional two-candidate-preferred count was conducted between Labor and the Greens, which was made redundant by the order of candidates on primary votes. While Family First are likely to come second, we won’t know that until the official distribution of preferences is conducted.

Click below the fold to look at a series of maps, featuring first preference maps for the six top polling candidates. For Labor, the Greens, the DLP and Family First, and for Hung Vo, I’ve also included swing maps.

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