Ipswich – QLD 2020

ALP 10.9% vs ON

Incumbent MP
Jennifer Howard, since 2015.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Ipswich covers the central suburbs of the city of Ipswich on the southern side of Bundamba creek, specifically the Ipswich central business district, Woodend, Booval, Newtown, Eastern Heights, Raceview, Churchill, Yamanto and parts of Bundamba.

History
The seat of Ipswich was first created in 1860, and existed continuously until 1960. It was restored at the 1972 election. The seat has been won by the ALP at all but one election since 1983.

The newly restored seat of Ipswich was first won in 1972 by Llewellyn Edwards. He was appointed to the ministry in 1974. In 1978 he became Deputy Premier and Liberal Party leader, and continued in those roles until his retirement in 1983.

David Hamill won the seat for the ALP in 1983. He served as a minister in the Goss Labor government from 1989 to 1996. Hamill served as Treasurer in the Beattie government’s first term from 1998 to 2001, when he retired.

Rachel Nolan won Ipswich in 2001. She held Ipswich for four terms, and served as a minister in the Bligh government from 2009 to 2012, covering portfolios such as Finance, Transport and Arts.

In 2012, Nolan was defeated by LNP candidate Ian Berry. Berry served one term, losing in 2015 to Labor candidate Jennifer Howard. Howard was re-elected in 2017.

Candidates

  • Jennifer Howard (Labor)
  • Amy Johnson (Liberal National)
  • Shelly Morton (Legalise Cannabis)
  • Percy Nash (Greens)
  • Assessment
    Ipswich is a safe Labor seat.

    2017 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Jennifer Howard Labor 12,81548.0-4.5
    Malcolm RobertsOne Nation7,10626.6+25.8
    Andrew Caswell Liberal National 3,71213.9-14.4
    Brett Morrissey Greens 2,3198.7+0.9
    Troy AggettIndependent7572.8+2.8
    Informal1,4735.2

    2017 two-candidate-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Jennifer Howard Labor 16,26260.9-5.1
    Malcolm RobertsOne Nation10,44739.1+39.1

    Booth breakdown

    Booths in Ipswich have been divided into three areas: north-east, north-west and south.

    Labor won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 57.7% in the south to 66.6% in the north-west.

    The LNP came third, with a primary vote ranging from 11.5% in the north-east to 14% in the south.

    Voter groupLNP primALP 2CPTotal votes% of votes
    South14.057.77,88229.5
    North-East11.563.15,46220.5
    North-West13.066.62,88610.8
    Pre-poll15.159.96,13423.0
    Other votes15.761.44,34516.3

    Election results in Jordan at the 2017 QLD state election
    Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Labor vs One Nation) and LNP primary votes.

    13 COMMENTS

    1. One Nation don’t have a candidate HERE? That’s just slack.

      If they can’t win with someone as high-profile as Roberts, they’re not getting it this time. Labor retain with a majority of primary vote.

    2. Ipswich did just elect a Liberal mayor 6mths ago – first non-Labor mayor in 50yrs.

      48% primary is probably about right, unfortunately its likely Labor retain.

      I may be from the leafy western suburbs but I’m an Ippy boy at heart (family/school).

    3. @Bird I admit I’m a bit shocked too. Bundamba, Jordan and Ipswich West next door with such a high vote. With no Malcolm Roberts, a bit of that star power rubs off and do think the vote for ONP will be much lower here (if they ran).
      @BJA Ipswich council was a bit of a unique situation, don’t think that’s a good indicator of this state seat.

      Prediction (August 2020): ALP Retain

    4. @P_O, I was just pointing it out, that’s all, to say that I didn’t think it would be a majority on primaries 🙂

      Not sure that Amy Johnson is an LNP candidate…

    5. @Feel the Bern, why the big swing against Labor?

      The LNP haven’t even preselected yet. Or do you think the swing will be towards PHON?

    6. Disagree Feel the Bern. True, Ipswich is one of the areas which is trending away from Labor, but I think being near Brisbane + low tourism will win Labor Covid votes. Council corruption was at large In 2017 and didn’t really hurt that much.

      In a low tide election for Labor, the LNP could gain by running Teresa Harding, but a bigger and more achievable prize for her is Blair.

    7. Teresa Harding was elected mayor 6mths ago, nothing would be achieved in her running for state or federal before her first term is up at least – that would be abandoning the fresh start that she ran on.

    8. Yes BJA I think she will run for Blair after the first term of a federal ALP government, so 2025 at the earliest. That’s enough to serve a full term as mayor and get reelected (or fail to do so and run as “former mayor”)

    9. Teresa Harding was the LNP candidate for Blair in 2013 and 2016, and the LNP vote went backwards both times. Maybe Ipswich is changing and being the mayor helps, but that wouldn’t look too good on the resume.

      Speaking of 2016, the One Nation candidate then (who got 15%) was Troy Aggett, who was one of the many who’ve split from that party over the years. A year later he got about a tenth of the vote of the official ON candidate in Ipswich. I guess those Pauline-branded posters help.

    10. The surprising thing about recent polling has been that whilst ALP and One Nation went backwards most of this seems to have gone to “others” which in effect means Clive Palmer. Palmer has no party structure and even candidates would disappear at the doorstep sign of Palmers money dissapearing. The Palmer campaign is in effect anti Labor but not pro anything. His Preferences are insignificant because without the delivery of HTV into voters hands they scatter all over the place. His voters are neither intelligent nor disciplined.
      Clearly in areas directly associated with Acland (and that might include Ipswich) and Carmichael mines he will do very well.
      Both ALP and LNP are structurally ready to fracture. They will probably make it to election in something resembling one piece but election loser will fracture once election is over.
      Libs should dump Flip Flop and find someone who will tackle issues rather than have a nightly spew about Palaszczuk.

    11. Driving through the Ipswich area this morning on the way to Warwick – plenty of signs up advertising One Nation, only saw one ALP sign advertising the sitting member, nothing for LNP.

    12. I note PHON has put up Suzie Holmes as their candidate for Ipswich. She ran for the LNP in Ipswich in 2009 from memory. I doubt she’ll poll as well as Malcolm Roberts.

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