ALP 7.9%
Incumbent MP
Don Brown, since 2015.
Geography
South-East Queensland. Capalaba covers eastern parts of Greater Brisbane in Redland local council area, specifically the suburbs of Capalaba, Alexandra Hills and parts of Birkdale and Thorneside.
History
The seat of Capalaba was created in 1992. Labor held the seat continuously from 1992 to 2012.
The seat was first won by Jim Elder, who had won the seat of Manly in 1989 and moved to Capalaba after his original seat was abolished.
Elder joined the Goss ministry in 1992 and served in it until the government was defeated in 1996. He became Deputy Opposition Leader in 1996 and became Deputy Premier in the Beattie government in 1998.
Elder resigned from the ministry and from the ALP in 2000 after adverse findings against him from the Shepherdson Inquiry into branch-stacking. He served out the remainder of his term as an independent until retiring in 2001.
At the 2001 election, the ALP’s Michael Choi was elected in Capalaba. He was re-elected in 2004, 2006 and 2009.
In 2012, Choi was defeated by LNP candidate Steve Davies. Davies held the seat for one term, losing in 2015 to Labor’s Don Brown.
Brown was re-elected in 2017.
Candidates
- Don Brown (Labor)
- Michael Metzen (Greens)
- Marilyn Winters (Informed Medical Options)
- Neal Gilmore (One Nation)
- Peter Ronald Callil (Civil Liberties & Motorists)
- Bev Walters (Liberal National)
- Paul Branagan (Independent)
Assessment
Capalaba is a reasonably safe Labor seat.
2017 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Don Brown | Labor | 13,292 | 42.8 | -4.4 |
| Cameron Leafe | Liberal National | 7,863 | 25.3 | -14.8 |
| Paul Taylor | One Nation | 6,049 | 19.5 | +19.5 |
| Joshua Sanderson | Greens | 2,617 | 8.4 | -4.0 |
| Jason Lavender | Independent | 1,200 | 3.9 | +3.8 |
| Informal | 1,400 | 4.3 |
2017 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Don Brown | Labor | 17,948 | 57.9 | +1.4 |
| Cameron Leafe | Liberal National | 13,073 | 42.1 | -1.4 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Capalaba have been divided into three areas: north, south-east and south-west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 58.2% in the south-west to 60.5% in the south-east.
One Nation came third, with a primary vote ranging from 17.3% in the north to 20.6% in the south-west.
| Voter group | ON prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 18.8 | 60.5 | 7,095 | 22.9 |
| North | 17.3 | 59.3 | 5,862 | 18.9 |
| South-West | 20.6 | 58.2 | 4,651 | 15.0 |
| Pre-poll | 20.2 | 54.8 | 8,804 | 28.4 |
| Other votes | 21.0 | 57.6 | 4,609 | 14.9 |
Election results in Capalaba at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and One Nation primary votes.
This is one seat I haven’t had much interest in as it’s a fairly safe Labor seat. Along with Lytton, there are Labor’s strongest seats in the area. Neighbouring Oodgeroo and Redlands are the more interesting seats here.
Prediction (August 2020): ALP Retain
September Prediction: Agree with the above comment, Labor retain. Has to be a 2012 type disaster for Labor to lose this.
6 candidates here so far including an independent. Despite that interest, this seat has been quiet and from that, really hasn’t changed my view.
Prediction (September 2020): ALP Retain [no change]
This seat doesn’t add up (to me at least). Capalpa is wholly within Bowman. Bowman is a safe LNP seat. All this area swung hard in 2019 to the LNP. Looking at the 2017 result How does Labor have a -4% swing, so does the Greens (-4%) & STILL GAIN 1, 1/2 %+ SWING 2PP ?. i know i’m wrong but i can’t see a safe labor seat. Beats the hell out of me…….
The LNP also went down by 14.8%, more than what Labor and the Greens lost put together. That’s where the 2pp swing to Labor comes from.
Winediamond it’s simple. Clearly One Nation voters were not uniform in preferencing the LNP in 2017.
I think you may be on the right track assuming that One Nation voters will preference the LNP strongly in 2020 though.
Prediction: ALP Retain
ALP retain
ALP retain