Myall Lakes – NSW 2019

NAT 8.7%

Incumbent MP
Stephen Bromhead, since 2011.

Geography
Mid-North Coast. Myall Lakes covers a majority of both Greater Taree and Great Lakes council areas. It covers the towns of Taree and Forster, and surrounding areas.

History
The seat of Myall Lakes has existed since 1988, and has always been held by the National Party.

When the seat was created, it partly replaced the seat of Gloucester, which had existed since 1880. Gloucester had been held by the Country/National Party since 1950.

Myall Lakes was won in 1988 by John Turner of the National Party. He held the seat for six terms before retiring in 2011. He served as deputy leader of the NSW National Party from 1999 to 2003.

In 2011, Myall Lakes was won by Nationals candidate Stephen Bromhead.

Candidates

Assessment
Myall Lakes is a reasonably safe seat, but could still be in play.

2015 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Stephen Bromhead Nationals 22,61746.9-17.7
David Keegan Labor 13,48327.9+15.2
Steve AttkinsIndependent7,29515.1+15.1
Stephen Ballantine Greens 3,1866.6-0.4
Andrew WeatherstoneChristian Democrats1,1582.4+2.4
Giovina GouskosNo Land Tax5151.1+1.1
Informal1,4753.0

2015 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Stephen Bromhead Nationals 24,37058.7-19.9
David Keegan Labor 17,11541.3+19.9

Booth breakdown

Booths in Myall Lakes has been split into five parts. Polling places in the two main towns of Forster-Tuncurry and Taree have been grouped together, with the remaining polling places grouped into “north”, “central” and “south”. Polling places in Forster-Tuncurry and South are in the Great Lakes council area, while the remainder are in Greater Taree council area.

The Nationals won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all five areas, ranging from 52% in Taree to 61.2% in Forster-Tuncurry.

Primary votes for independent candidate Steve Attkins ranged from 13.7% in the north to 18.1% in the south.

Voter groupIND prim %NAT 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Forster-Tuncurry15.661.27,41315.4
Central16.057.97,35515.2
Taree16.452.07,08214.7
North13.758.44,0818.5
South18.157.93,7097.7
Other votes12.258.26,58113.6
Pre-poll14.762.312,03324.9

Election results in Myall Lakes at the 2015 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for independent candidate Steve Attkins.

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14 COMMENTS

  1. Because of that Far-right take over scandal of the NSW nationals (Many young nats resigned), I actually believe it will affect them, It might turn off national voters and especially if Barnaby comes back to the Leadership of the Federal nationals, that would make prospects worse due to how unpopular he is. (His scandal) This seat is much in play and as long as Labor wins all the Booths in Taree and does reasonable in Forster they can snatch this, Whoever wins Gov will likely win this.

  2. 5 to 6% uniform swing in Nsw….. possible +3% higher……. is possible 8 to 9% this is still a big ask…. but is competetive

  3. Labor is going all out in this electorate – don’t know where you get the impression they’re not deploying resources here. Nats have been in power here for 30 + years. Regardless of issues, surely even all the old folks can see its time for them to go.
    People see through Bromhead like a window.

  4. The Sportsbet market on Myall Lakes has moved to 1.20 Nats vs 4.00 for Labor, after earlier indicating a tighter contest. Any ideas or local knowledge out there on what the latest is in this area. I had heard on here and elsewhere that Labor was throwing the kitchen sink at this seat..

  5. Nats did some internal seat polling last week. Most of it was dreadful, Barwon primary on 38%, but maybe Myall Lakes came good and someone from Toncurry who follows the Nats (maybe even more than one) has plonked big on a Nats victory and the bookies are racing to catch up?

  6. I have live in the Great Lakes for 30yrs & remember the damage labour done to the state when they were in last time all their back door deals & corruption do we want to go down that track again this government has just got a handle on things NSW has never jobs & infrastructure

  7. I can’t understand why anyone would votte lib nat with the debt they have got us in and its a lib nat gov that is giving water to the wrong people in the Darling Barwon river system and it wasn’t the government that gave them feed in the drought it was the people guess when people get in that polling booth it’s the same old safe box as last time. Next week the pension cutbacks will be back on the table again screw your grandparents no one cares.

  8. Ahh Bill, you’re the classic clueless voter who can’t differentiate between State and Federal politics. NSW has never been in better financial shape. Big surplus, record employment. Other Parties just can’t find a decent candidate to run in this seat, when they do i’ll happily vote for them but until then it’ll always be a Nat seat.

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