Cronulla – NSW 2019

LIB 20.9%

Incumbent MP
Mark Speakman, since 2011.

Geography
Southern Sydney. Cronulla covers parts of Sutherland Shire, including the suburbs of Burraneer, Caringbah, Cronulla, Grays Point, Gymea Bay, Kurnell, Lilli Pilli, Port Hacking, Woolooware and Yowie Bay.

History
The district of Cronulla has existed since 1959. In that time, it has been won by the Liberal Party at all but two elections.

Cronulla was first won in 1959 by Liberal MP Ian Griffith. He had won the seat of Sutherland in 1956, and moved to the new seat of Cronulla after the redistribution shifted Sutherland into Labor areas.

Griffith served as a minister from 1972 to 1975, and again for the final few months of the Coalition government in 1976. Griffith lost Liberal preselection in 1978 and retired.

The ALP’s Michael Egan won Cronulla in 1978. He was re-elected in 1981, but lost in 1984. Egan was elected to the Legislative Council in 1986. He became Treasurer when the ALP won power in 1995, serving in the role until his retirement in 2005.

Egan was defeated in 1984 by Liberal candidate Malcolm Kerr. Kerr was re-elected in 1988, 1991, 1995, 1999, 2003 and 2007.

In 2011, Kerr retired and was succeeded by Mark Speakman. Speakman was re-elected in 2015.

Candidates

  • Jonathan Doig (Greens)

Assessment
Cronulla is a very safe Liberal seat.

2015 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Mark Speakman Liberal 31,18961.9-3.1
Peter Scaysbrook Labor 11,02921.9+2.3
Nathan Hunt Greens 4,5809.1+0.3
George CapsisChristian Democrats2,5715.1+1.8
Christie MortimerNo Land Tax9781.9+1.9
Informal1,5503.0

2015 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Mark Speakman Liberal 32,78870.9-3.9
Peter Scaysbrook Labor 13,43629.1+3.9

Booth breakdown

Booths in Cronulla have been split into three parts: central, east or west.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 67.4% in the west to 74.9% in the centre.

Voter groupLIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Central74.913,36726.5
East71.011,05322.0
West67.410,44520.7
Other votes69.08,70017.3
Pre-poll70.76,78213.5

Two-party-preferred votes in Cronulla at the 2015 NSW state election

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5 COMMENTS

  1. Daniel, thanks for answering my question. It is much appreciated.

    When Labor won Cronulla in 1978 and 1981, Cook was a reasonable safe Liberal seat. On each occasion the State election was held less than 6 months after the Federal election. Same voters different result.

    The issues in state and federal elections are different because the governments have different functions. In my opinion state government decisions have a greater impact on peoples daily lives than those made by the commonwealth government. In 1978 public transport was the big issue in this electorate.

    The F6 motorway may become an issue for the up coming state election, although at this stage I haven’t seen any evidence of candidates campaigning on it.
    Here is an article about the F6 motorway: http://www.theleader.com.au/story/4743438/f6-extension-plans-more-details-and-reaction/

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