Archive for November, 2009

Labour and SNP go head to head in Glasgow North East

Result: Labour has held on against the SNP with 59.4% of the vote. The SNP polled 20%, while the Conservatives polled 5.2%. The BNP came fourth with 4.9% followed by former socialist MSP Tommy Sheridan and the  Liberal Democrats.

Voters are now going to the polls to elect a new Member of Parliament in the Glasgow North East constituency in Scotland. Vacated by Speaker Michael Martin in June after he was forced from the Speakership, the seat has seen a fierce contest between the ruling Labour Party and the Scottish National Party, the third such contest since Gordon Brown became Prime Minister.

Read the rest of this entry »

Canadian Tories inch closer to majority in by-election

A guest post by regular commenter Nick C.

Earlier this week by-elections took place to fill four vacant seats in the Canadian House of Commons. The overall outcome saw a net gain of two seats for Stephen Harper’s governing Conservative Party, one at the expense of the Bloc Quebecois, and the other being a seat returning to the Conservative fold after having been held by an ex-Conservative Independent. Meanwhile the Bloc and New Democrats respectively retained the other two seats.

Read the rest of this entry »

The new-look Tally Room

Welcome to the newly redesigned Tally Room blog. I have changed to a new theme which mainly redesigns the front page. The top of the front page will regularly cycle through the three most recent posts. Each post will include an image to identify the post. However, for a reason I can’t understand I can only post frontpage images for new posts, so it will take a few weeks before the front page takes on its new look. Please let me know what you think of the design and pass on any suggestions for how to improve the site.

Update: I think I’ve got the hang of  it now, and I’ll be gradually going back over posts from October and November to give them identifying images, although I don’t plan to go back through the entire back-catalogue. You may also see other minor changes in coming weeks in the sidebar and possibly the featuring of federal election seat guides on the front page.

Tags:

Andrew Bartlett runs for Greens in Brisbane

The Greens have today announced that former Democrats leader Andrew Bartlett will run for the party in the federal seat of Brisbane at the next election. Bartlett was a senator for Queensland from 1997 until his defeat in 2007 saw his term finish in 2008.

No doubt about it, Bartlett is a strong candidate for the Queensland Greens. His eleven years in the Senate give enormous credibility to his bid, and he has a strong record on various policy issues. Although he was previously a member of another party, his record suggests he fits in comfortably with Greens policy, something that cannot be said for some previous high-profile outside recruits. He has been strong on trademark Greens issues like refugees and environmental issues, while working in the difficult environment of the imploding Democrats following their support of the GST (which Bartlett opposed). On the other hand, it’s still to be seen how well he performs as a campaigner. His time as leader of the Democrats saw the party lose three of its seats and suffer a massive swing at the 2004 election.

Read the rest of this entry »

Macarthur guide posted

I have now posted a guide to the federal election in the seat of Macarthur. Macarthur is now Labor’s most marginal seat, one where preselection contests are heated in both parties. It’s also the seat where I ran in 2007.

Maine same-sex marriage vote down to the wire

US election results today have seen Republicans win Democratic governorships in New Jersey and Virginia, and independent Mike Bloomberg reelected as Mayor of New York by a surprisingly narrow margin.

Two races remain close and worth watching. In Maine, “Question 1″ is asking voters whether they support a new law on same-sex marriage. As it stands the “no” position (in favour of same-sex marriage) has a very slight lead.

No – 112,421
Yes – 112,245

38% reporting

Meanwhile, in New York’s 23rd congressional district, Democrat Bill Owens is leading ahead of Conservative Doug Hoffman:

Bill Owens (D) – 47,826 – 49.1%
Doug Hoffman (C) – 44,349 – 45.5%
Dede Scozzafava (R) – 5,294 – 5.4%

67% reporting

You can follow both votes, and a bunch of other votes around the US, at the New York Times website.

Macarthur musical chairs

Just days after the Liberal Party actually conducted a local preselection to choose their candidate for Macarthur, the ALP has delved into the unedifying spectacle of dividing up the federal electorates of southwestern Sydney without any consideration of what any actual members might think about their candidates, or local links to seats.

According to reports in the Australian, Sydney Morning Herald and Macarthur Chronicle, the musical chairs have been triggered by desperate attempts to save Laurie Ferguson after his seat of Reid was effectively abolished in the recent redistribution.

Reports suggest that Chris Hayes, Member for Werriwa, could be shifted from his safe seat to nearby ultramarginal Macarthur, with Werriwa going to a member of the Left. The Australian reports a deal to impose the Left’s Damien Ogden, 31, who appears to be a former Sutherland Council candidate (nowhere near Werriwa’s territory in Liverpool and Campbelltown) in exchange for which the Right would choose the candidate for Hughes, which covers parts of Liverpool, Bankstown and Sutherland and is held by a slender margin by Liberal MP Danna Vale.

However, the Chronicle reports that the “soft Left” is pushing Wendy Waller, Mayor of Liverpool, in Werriwa, and a number of reports suggest Ferguson, who has no links with that part of Sydney and whose entire career has been based in Granville, could be shifted to Werriwa. The Campbelltown branch of the ALP has clearly stated its support for Chris Hayes continuing in the seat.

Hayes has reportedly refused to move, understandable considering how he would be moving from a safe seat that he currently holds to an ultramarginal one. While he does appear to have the support of local members, that appears unlikely to be of any relevance to the ALP.

Meanwhile, the deal is tied up with agreements around the parcelling out of Greenway, Macquarie, Fowler and Throsby between the factions. None of them seem to involve any actual members ever having a say or seeing candidates tested in rank-and-file preselections.

In Macarthur, apart from Hayes, candidates named include 2007 candidate Nick Bleasdale, local paediatrician Mike Freelander, Deputy Mayor of Camden Greg Warren and paralympian Paul Nunnari. While Bleasdale claims strong local support, he was effectively preselected in 2007 without any opposition in a climate where the party did not think Macarthur was winnable, and can expect to face fiercer competition this time around. What may ultimately doom Bleasdale’s chances are his seeming lack of factional support or political capital. While his candidature saw a major swing to the ALP in 2007, no-one would claim that was due to the individual candidate, rather than a mixture of national factors and a backlash against Pat Farmer.

It appears that the party machine is enthusiastic about Mike Freelander as a contender, although he would likely be pushed aside too if it was needed to get Chris Hayes out of Werriwa (a terrible deal for Hayes, of course). With ALP preselections being decided by a panel of the Prime Minister and five factional headkickers in Canberra, what ALP members in Western Sydney actually want will not come into consideration, but they will surely take it lying down, like they always do.

US off-year elections

Today is election day in the US, which tends to be a minor affair in odd-numbered years. This year, there are a number of interesting contests that I wanted to highlight.

A special election has been called in New York’s 23rd district to replace Rep. John McHugh (R), appointed as Obama’s Secretary of the Army. The Democrats and Republicans each declined to hold primaries, instead having local party leaders choose their candidates. Republicans chose state Assemblywoman Dierdre “Dede” Scozzafava, while the Democrats chose attorney Bill Owens. The minor Conservative Party endorsed accountant Doug Hoffman.

NY-23 is a Republican district in upstate New York, which has comfortably reelected Republican candidates for many years. Scozzafava led in early polls, but her liberal positions saw national Republicans and local conservatives shift to Hoffman. Scozzafava is pro-choice and supports gay marriage, and has links to organised labor.

A number of prominent Republican figures endorsed Hoffman, including Sarah Palin, Fred Thompson, Mike Huckabee and most of the figures in the ‘tea party’ movement. Hoffman and Owens shot ahead of Scozzafava in terms of fundraising and Scozzafava fell into third place in the polls just over a week ago.

On Saturday Scozzafava withdrew from the race, endorsing Democrat Owens on Sunday. Speculation has turned to the possibility of Scozzafava switching to the Democrats. Since that time polls have indicated that Hoffman is leading in the race, although low turnout makes polling for US special elections incredibly hard to predict, with high numbers of undecided voters and a high margin of error.

In other races tomorrow:

  • New Jersey governor’s race – Incumbent governor Jon Corzine faces an uphill battle against Republican Chris Christie. Recent polls have put Christie a nose in front while a solid part of the electorate appears to be leaning towards independent Chris Daggett.
  • Virginia governor’s race – Virginia’s governors are term limited to a single term, and the Democrats have won the last two elections, with Mark Warner winning in 2001 and Tim Kaine in 2005. Former Attorney-General Bob McDonnell (R) is leading over State Senator Creigh Deeds (D).
  • New York City mayor’s race – Incumbent mayor Mike Bloomberg (Independent, formerly Republican) is solidly leading by about 10% ahead of City Comptroller Bill Thompson (D), and should win a third term comfortably.
  • CA-10 special election – Another special election is being held in the solidly Democratic 10th district of California, where sitting Congresswoman Ellen Tauscher resigned to take a job in the Obama administration. The Democratic candidate should win.
  • Gay marriage referendums – Two initiatives are being held regarding gay marriage or similar initiatives. In Maine a referendum to reject a new law legalising gay marriage looks likely to be close, with the ‘No’ campaign (pro-gay marriage) slightly in front. In Washington state a referendum to approve domestic partnerships that would be effectively marriage in all but name looks set to pass comfortably.

Election guide update

Three more seat profiles have now been completed for the three most marginal Liberal seats:

I have also included a little box in the top right hand corner of the website where links are provided to the most recently written seat guides. Keep an eye on the box for new seat guides. Next up is Macarthur.