Northgate – Brisbane 2020

Council margin – LNP 1.7%
Mayoral margin – LNP 6.0%

Incumbent councillor
Adam Allan, since 2016.

Geography
Northern Brisbane. Northgate covers the suburbs of Nudgee, Banyo, Northgate and Wavell Heights.

Redistribution
Northgate shrunk slightly, losing part of Chermside to Marchant. This did not change the ward’s margin.

History

Labor’s Kim Flesser held Northgate from 1997 until 2016.

Flesser managed 59.5% of the primary vote in 2000, but his margin was cut to 5.9% in 2004.

In 2008, Flesser’s margin was cut even further to 1.6%. In 2012, Flesser managed to keep the anti-Labor swing to a slim 1.2% and hold on with an extremely slim margin.

Flesser retired in 2016, and a 2% swing gave victory to the LNP’s Adam Allan.

Candidates

Assessment
Northgate is the most marginal ward in the city and Labor would be hoping to win it back, although Allan will likely benefit from a new personal vote.

2016 council result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Adam Allan Liberal National 11,45646.7-3.046.7
Reg Neil Labor 9,58139.1-11.339.1
James Davis Greens 3,49914.3+14.314.2
Informal7122.8

2016 council two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Adam Allan Liberal National 11,79651.7+2.151.7
Reg Neil Labor 11,01848.3-2.148.3
Exhausted1,7227.0

2016 mayoral result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Graham Quirk Liberal National 12,41250.3-6.050.3
Rod Harding Labor 8,94036.2+3.336.3
Ben Pennings Greens 2,2449.1+0.69.1
Jeffrey HodgesIndependent5442.2+2.22.2
Karel BoelePeople Decide2341.0+1.00.9
Jim EldridgeIndependent1690.7+0.70.7
Jarrod WirthIndependent1430.6+0.60.6
Informal6402.5

2016 mayoral two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Graham Quirk Liberal National 12,86056.1-5.456.0
Rod Harding Labor 10,06843.9+5.444.0
Exhausted1,7587.1

Booth breakdown

Booths in Northgate have been divided into three parts: central, north-east and west.

The LNP won clear majorities in the centre and west: 53.2% in the centre and 55.4% in the west. The LNP margins were larger in the mayoral ballot.

Labor won a big 56.8% majority in the north-east, while the mayoral vote in this area was tied.

The Greens primary vote ranged from 10.6% in the north-east to 15.4% in the centre.

Voter groupGRN council primLNP council 2PPLNP mayoral 2PPTotal votes% of votes
Central15.453.256.48,06534.2
West14.255.458.84,52919.2
North-East10.643.250.04,39518.6
Other votes16.354.259.14,27418.1
Pre-poll13.250.755.22,3029.8

Election results in Northgate at the 2016 Brisbane City Council election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes for council and lord mayor, and Greens primary votes for council.

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3 COMMENTS

  1. Allan works incredibly hard and is against the same low energy Labor candidate as last time – would be very surprising if he doesn’t get home easily

  2. Agreed, Allan is one of the hardest working Councillors.

    Very surprised Labor has preselected the same candidate as last time.

  3. This Division is ALP in State and Federal. Apart from the Wavell Heights area it is predominantly three bedroom wooden 32 Perch blocks. A lot of it was Housing Commision houses from 1950’s. The Green vote at last Council elections surprisingly large for ward. Significantly higher thanState election 14% rather than 9 or 10%.
    I used to work in ward and would have classified it as Labor territory.
    Aspley has wing Agee times in last few years in part because of a concerted effort to oust Bonnie Barry as state member in 2012. This was orchestrated by groups other than political parties.

    Without doubt if ALP can not take Northgate they will remain in opposition which I do not think will be the case.
    Lord Mayor Schrimmer is a much less dynamic figure than his predecessors. He would however be more likely to get my vote than two previous Lord Mayors. I live justboutside of BrisnanenMetro area in Moreton Bay Regional Council area.
    So far I have notn seen Physical campaigning by candidates but Ward Candidates are campaigning abusively on Facebook in Moreton Bay.
    Moreton Bay Council has restricted Corflute displays significantly so physical campaigning may be occurring without being noticed.

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