Ryan – Australia 2019

LNP 9.0%

Incumbent MP
Jane Prentice, since 2010.

Geography
Ryan covers the western suburbs of Brisbane. The seat covers the north side of the Brisbane river from Auchenflower through Toowong, Indooroopilly, Chapel Hill and Kenmore. It also covers suburbs further north including The Gap and Ferny Grove.

Redistribution
Ryan underwent minor changes, gaining parts of Dorrington and Enoggera from Brisbane, and losing Karana Downs to Blair. These changes cut the LNP margin from 9.1% to 9%.

History
Ryan was first created in 1949. The seat was first won by Nigel Drury in 1949 for the Liberal Party. Drury held the seat until 1975, mainly serving as a backbencher. He was succeeded by John Moore in 1975. Moore served as a minister in Malcolm Fraser’s final term and served in the shadow cabinet during the Hawke/Keating governments.

Moore served as Minister for Industry, Science and Tourism in John Howard’s first government and become Minister for Defence after the 1998 election. He lost the portfolio in a reshuffle in December 2000 and proceeded to resign from Parliament early in 2001.

A swing of 9.7% gave the normally safe Liberal seat to Labor candidate Leonie Short by 255 votes. Liberal candidate Michael Johnson won back the seat at the 2001 general election. Johnson was reelected in 2004 and 2007. A 6.6% swing to the ALP in 2007 made the seat marginal, and the ensuing redistribution cut the margin further.

Michael Johnson was expelled from the Liberal National Party in May 2010 due to controversies surrounding his role as Chair of the Australia-China Business Forum.

The LNP preselected Brisbane city councillor Jane Prentice in 2010. Prentice won the seat comfortably. Michael Johnson ran as an independent, and came fourth with 8.5% of the vote. Prentice won a second term in 2013, and a third term in 2016.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Jane Prentice lost party preselection and is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Ryan is a safe LNP seat, although it is one of the stronger Greens seats in Queensland.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Jane Prentice Liberal National 49,40252.1+0.552.1
Stephen Hegedus Labor 21,59422.8-2.723.0
Sandra Bayley Greens 17,76718.7+4.318.8
David ToddFamily First2,3892.5+1.22.4
S GryphonLiberal Democrats2,0462.2+2.22.1
John Lawrence QuinnDemocratic Labour Party1,5661.7+1.71.6
Informal2,3182.4

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Jane Prentice Liberal National 55,99459.1+0.659.0
Stephen Hegedus Labor 38,77040.9-0.641.0

Booth breakdown


Booths have been divided into four areas. Most of the population lies at the eastern end of the electorate, and these areas have been split into three areas. From north to south, these are Enoggera, The Gap and Indooroopilly. The remainder of the booths, most of which lie near the Brisbane River, have been grouped as “West”.

The Liberal National Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three areas, with a vote ranging from 56.5% in the Gap to 65.9% in the west. Labor won 52% in Enoggera.

The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 15.7% in Enoggera to 21.3% in Indooroopilly.

Voter groupGRN %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Indooroopilly21.359.822,57924.2
The Gap20.656.514,90216.0
Enoggera15.748.010,69111.5
West16.965.97,9038.5
Other votes17.760.819,05420.4
Pre-poll17.861.518,09419.4

Election results in Ryan at the 2016 federal election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.


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80 COMMENTS

  1. Yeah that’s a really bizarre reason to complain, Ryan is likely to be one of the more marginal seats at the next election, with the loss of a vaguely popular sitting member and inner city seats displeasure with the changed leadership. It’s also one of the very few seats in the country where 3 parties have a serious chance of winning and an independent would have. A good chance.

    Wentworth was recently lost on a much greater margin.

    Even if Ryan was completely safe your vote would make a difference in party funding and at the Senate level.

  2. THE Comment about the AEC is obscene, offensive and shows an individual whose Right to vote should be removed by Special Act of Parliament if he can be identified.

    As Ben pointed out AEC has no say over electoral single member constituency.

    MY experience with all AEC officers has always been positive. A few temporary employees have been officious in their dealings with public and party workers but they have been correct in every case but one.

    Ben,
    If ‘fuckthe AEC” sec (and sick) is so spineless that he can not put a name to his seditious utterings he should be barred from all Tally room discussions.

    He certainly has a unique way of expressing himself – 1 sentence of 58 words containing 3 case errors, (as, ryan and aec) and 5 Grammatical errors and 3 spelling mistakes. “goverment ” sic must take the cake on the Tallyroom site as the spelling error of the year.

    Note I did say “he” because the odds are if it is taking part in this discussion it is likely it will be a he.

    Tally room is debased by “fucktheAEC’s” ignorant, moronic, undemocratic, and obscene comments. I may disagree with every other writer of posts on this this thread but I do not detest the authors. I detest a person who purposely throws away their democratic right to draw obscenities on his ballot paper and I would be happy for them to be exiled to North Korea or Red China where they could experience a government which actually does “force you to live” in a location. The individual I am criticising can move to any electorate in Australia that he wants to. No one is forcing him to live in Ryan I am sure that DRO and OIC of his polling booth would be glad to see the back of him.

    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com

  3. Andrew, i’ll decide if I want to ban people. He had a substantive point to make, and I’m not fussed about the swearing or the relaxed spelling and grammar. Your eagerness to ban people from voting is a little bit too fascist for my taste.

  4. Ben
    Have a look at a Quadrant set of 3 articles about Fascism sorry do not have references in which Quadrant author stated that calling someone or something fascist says more about the political opinions of the writer than the opinions of the person or idea being talked about.
    The old Coms always called my political philosophy
    “Social fascism” but they at least knew what they meant even if no one else did.
    I have a thick skin and forgive you for the insult. Keep up good work.
    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com

  5. Thanks Andrew I cant get over how little people understand where they sit in the political sphere.
    Modern day lefties think that if you support in any way the traditional or accepted position you must be of the extreme right.
    IE in Europe whereby a nationalist Keynesian candidates are referred to as extreme right.
    In Australia if you are a social conservative on any issues ie abortion, gay marriage then you must be extreme right even though you might even support economically a left position.
    Seems like if you they disagree with any position you take then today’s lefties accuse everyone of being extreme right when in fact they have lost it and are the ones to the extreme left….

  6. Julian Simmons (LNP) now has an electronic sign up on Moggill Rd capturing in bound traffic. No indication that Jane Prentice will or will not jump ship and stand as independent. Libs must be worried to invest money so early in a seat that is a Liberal safe seat capturing Moggill Rd traffic. The chances of Lib losing seat even with a strong independent are slim. I don’t think Jane Prentice has a strong presence in electorate but she is not unknown.

  7. Coalition has slipped to $1.11, while Labor is on $3.30. Labor are still underdogs but if they make an upset pickup here. There will be allot of blame game going around on dumping Jane Prentice, Last election she even got a swing towards her!

  8. Relying on the betting markets is not a reliable indicator of how an election will go…

    If LNP does not win this seat, it feels like it should be the Greens as they had a candidate before Labor.

  9. And we wait to see if Jane Prentice runs. If she does and sneaks 10% it might allow ALP or Greens to come close. However, I think majority of Jane’s voters would preference Julian and we will see the rise of a lifelong political animal.

  10. No he wont become a minister, And i believe Jane would get far more than 10% She is very popular as a local member and achieved a swing towards her last election. I expect her to become 2nd or 3rd, and after preference distributions she could even win the seat, she isnt like her predecessor who was very unpopular

  11. “Relying on the betting markets is not a reliable indicator of how an election will go…

    If LNP does not win this seat, it feels like it should be the Greens as they had a candidate before Labor.”

    I have spoken to a politician who have said betting markets have got a high percentage of seats correct based on favourites other elections not so much because the election was harder to predict. Nobody says their completely concrete but I don’t see the harm in using them as a tool to gauging where the polling is providing its not taken as complete gospel and not only the factor taken in consideration when predicting the result of the seat.

    Greens selecting a candidate before Labor is not the means all and ends all of them finishing ahead of Labor. Also when the Labor vote rises the soft Greens voters comeback to Labor which are likely to happen considering the Labor polling will be higher going into the next federal election then usual. Which is why I predict Labor will finish ahead of the Greens in this seat at the next election. I still tip the LNP to retain though.

  12. @Political Nightwatchman

    You’re right, that the betting markets (and published opinion polls for that matter!) should not be taken as gospel. Yes, they can be an indicator – my comment was more out of frustration with the tone of commentary heavily reliant on polls, odds, etc.

    Regarding Greens and Labor in this seat, I just feel that the Green candidate would be more representative of the seat if he were to get elected and would try for local representation, despite unfortunately sprouting the ideological stuff the Greens do.

    There is no such thing as a safe seat but Julian should be successful – we have been back 2 weeks already and Labor/Greens have been nowhere to be seen anywhere here. If Jane Prentice were to be running as an independent, she would have announced already. People are already starting to say they are glad Jane is not running – those that see themselves in Jane and carry a torch, their flame I think will burn out.

    I’m certainly backing Julian – still with plenty of hope and faith for a returned Coalition government (that journalists can say would be a ‘miracle’ all they want!)

  13. Jane Pretence has refused to rule out running as an independent on ABC Radio. It may make the seat more interesting if she does put her hand up to stand.

    She may not be the only potential former Liberal running I know it was in the media recently former member for Ryan Michael Johnson expressed a interest in running again as an independent. But unlike Pretence Johnson would have no chance.

  14. If Jane Ran she would in this climate poll in excess of 10% this is more than her margin……….
    with a swing to labor of 6% plus in qld……plus not all her preferences returning to the libs this seat would be close………… if swing was 6% plus 3% std deviation of swing this could swing enough all by itself
    If she ran then the libs would be very worried

  15. Michael Johnson showed considerable political acumen in gettin endorsed in first place. He showed up typical Liberal Party member as being near politically incompetent.
    If Johnson were to run again he would bring this political acumen in to play.
    I would not write him off.
    Ryan is changing demographically especially in Left leading to potentially a move towards left-liberalism.

  16. i’m quite content in the Division of Brisbane where my house vote actually somewhat matters, i now regret registering to vote because where i live now thanks to redistribution is safe seats or the equivalent of on all 3 levels of government, the LNP are all but guaranteed to win the seat of Ryan and Julian Simmonds is well know as a very good friend of the big end of town (would not be surprised if he is Corrupt as fuck), the north west of Brisbane needs its own Division but of course that is never going to happen, plus side is i can draw profanity on my ballot paper at least ill get a laugh out of that

  17. Blood
    I have no knowledge of Julian Simmonds but if you have evidence of misconduct go to police if not keep quiet.
    You seem to be under the belief that you have the right to register to vote where you want to. If you live in Ryan you enrol in Ryan and your representatives in Parliament do not reflect your personal view but they do reflect the view of majority of Ryan voters.
    I previously expressed my view about those who failed to cast valid votes and was told by Ben that my views were fascist. I dispute the fascist nature of my views but you would be up before the Beak if I had any say.
    1) unsupported accusation of corruption
    2) Encouraging false electoral enrolment
    3) Encouraging voters to cast an informal ballot
    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com

  18. Prentice confirms she won’t run as an Independent, its a shame really, i think she would have won or at least would have made a large dint into the Liberal vote, Still don’t know if her predecessor is running here (Michael Johnson)

  19. Although a 9% lead looks strong, this seat could be closer than one might think. With the loss of Prentice, the Libs will certainly lose a bit of their lead, although Prentice staying out of the seat will help to keep the vote together. At the time of writing theres only a UAP candidate other than the major 3 (the third being the Greens), so I so no major threat to the core LNP votes.

    The question becomes who would be the one to steal the seat if the Libs lost their 9%.

    I seriously think the Greens have got a shot here, and they know it. There has been heaps of roadside campaigns (Source: Ryan is my local seat), so if the Greens can pinch a seat, here is their shot. It will be an uphill fight to get second off of Labor, but if they can then they might stand a chance.

    If it is LNP v Labor, I see this seat being close, but if the Greens pull ahead (maybe UAP does some preference to try and keep the majors out, although I find it unlikely here) of Labor, then I don’t think all the labor preferences will flow Green and as such I think in a LNP v Green race, LNP holds on.

  20. Simmonds has been a dead loss as a BCC councillor for the district. Try meeting him. Try finding his office. It’s there but you’d never know it.
    I hear only negative comments about him around Indooroopilly Shopping Town.
    I’ve never met the man, never seen the man but I have got the impression he’s a political opportunist.
    The Greens in Maiwar have been active and busy. Their workers carpeted the Uniting church booth and the Bunnings pre-poll booth with Green at the state election. I couldn’t see too much “on the ground” support for the LNP.
    My guess is that Simmonds won’t take the seat. I’ve not decided who to support except it won’t be Simmonds. I got no bang for my buck while he was the BCC rep for Walter Taylor. I’d expect less if he represented Ryan.
    I’m leaning to the Greens. I don’t like them but the Maiwar man has been visible and active on local issues. The LNP is taking its long-term voters for granted by imposing on us a progressive show pony.

  21. Jane wont run. Its too late for an independent who id ex liberal to build support. She saw what happened to Michael Johnson it would be a waste of her money and any sponsors would prefer to go with Julian as the future.

  22. From my end of Ryan, I have not seen any activity at all by the Greens.

    The Libs are a bit active as is Labor.

    Labor has a very energetic candidate who is doorknocking like crazy.

    My guess is this seat will be tight but Labor is in with a chance. I might have predicted Greens but their total invisibility makes me think they are not trying.

  23. Maverick
    I have driven into Ryan today (Bellbowrie Bardon Kenmore Brookfield) and your comment that Greens are invisible is not accurate my count of Corflutes on Moggil Rd was Greens 6 ALP And LNP combined 4 Palmer 1.
    I want Greens to become invisible but unfortunately they are active in Brisbane’s leafy suburbs.
    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com

  24. Andrew

    I had heard something similar but NOT in my area. For some reason there is a mob sporting pink signs that call for real action on Climate Change – NOT authorised and not officially election posters. But no sign of the Greens.
    It may just be an issue with my area- opposite end to Bellbowie. However it is a reasonably strong Greens area.

  25. Additional Liberal and Green Corflutes spotted in an old service station on Southern side of Moggil Rd, Kenmore or Chapel Hill. The Green signs official Green signs not sure if authorised or not.
    Some bloke approached me at Kenmore on seeing my Holden Colorado asking me what I thought of electric vehicles.

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