Ryan – Australia 2019

LNP 9.0%

Incumbent MP
Jane Prentice, since 2010.

Geography
Ryan covers the western suburbs of Brisbane. The seat covers the north side of the Brisbane river from Auchenflower through Toowong, Indooroopilly, Chapel Hill and Kenmore. It also covers suburbs further north including The Gap and Ferny Grove.

Redistribution
Ryan underwent minor changes, gaining parts of Dorrington and Enoggera from Brisbane, and losing Karana Downs to Blair. These changes cut the LNP margin from 9.1% to 9%.

History
Ryan was first created in 1949. The seat was first won by Nigel Drury in 1949 for the Liberal Party. Drury held the seat until 1975, mainly serving as a backbencher. He was succeeded by John Moore in 1975. Moore served as a minister in Malcolm Fraser’s final term and served in the shadow cabinet during the Hawke/Keating governments.

Moore served as Minister for Industry, Science and Tourism in John Howard’s first government and become Minister for Defence after the 1998 election. He lost the portfolio in a reshuffle in December 2000 and proceeded to resign from Parliament early in 2001.

A swing of 9.7% gave the normally safe Liberal seat to Labor candidate Leonie Short by 255 votes. Liberal candidate Michael Johnson won back the seat at the 2001 general election. Johnson was reelected in 2004 and 2007. A 6.6% swing to the ALP in 2007 made the seat marginal, and the ensuing redistribution cut the margin further.

Michael Johnson was expelled from the Liberal National Party in May 2010 due to controversies surrounding his role as Chair of the Australia-China Business Forum.

The LNP preselected Brisbane city councillor Jane Prentice in 2010. Prentice won the seat comfortably. Michael Johnson ran as an independent, and came fourth with 8.5% of the vote. Prentice won a second term in 2013, and a third term in 2016.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Jane Prentice lost party preselection, so will presumably will not run for re-election.

  • Peter Cossar (Labor)
  • Jake Schoermer (Greens)
  • Julian Simmonds (Liberal National)

Assessment
Ryan is a safe LNP seat, although it is one of the stronger Greens seats in Queensland.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Jane Prentice Liberal National 49,40252.1+0.552.1
Stephen Hegedus Labor 21,59422.8-2.723.0
Sandra Bayley Greens 17,76718.7+4.318.8
David ToddFamily First2,3892.5+1.22.4
S GryphonLiberal Democrats2,0462.2+2.22.1
John Lawrence QuinnDemocratic Labour Party1,5661.7+1.71.6
Informal2,3182.4

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Jane Prentice Liberal National 55,99459.1+0.659.0
Stephen Hegedus Labor 38,77040.9-0.641.0

Booth breakdown


Booths have been divided into four areas. Most of the population lies at the eastern end of the electorate, and these areas have been split into three areas. From north to south, these are Enoggera, The Gap and Indooroopilly. The remainder of the booths, most of which lie near the Brisbane River, have been grouped as “West”.

The Liberal National Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three areas, with a vote ranging from 56.5% in the Gap to 65.9% in the west. Labor won 52% in Enoggera.

The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 15.7% in Enoggera to 21.3% in Indooroopilly.

Voter groupGRN %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Indooroopilly21.359.822,57924.2
The Gap20.656.514,90216.0
Enoggera15.748.010,69111.5
West16.965.97,9038.5
Other votes17.760.819,05420.4
Pre-poll17.861.518,09419.4

Election results in Ryan at the 2016 federal election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.


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58 COMMENTS

  1. Yeah that’s a really bizarre reason to complain, Ryan is likely to be one of the more marginal seats at the next election, with the loss of a vaguely popular sitting member and inner city seats displeasure with the changed leadership. It’s also one of the very few seats in the country where 3 parties have a serious chance of winning and an independent would have. A good chance.

    Wentworth was recently lost on a much greater margin.

    Even if Ryan was completely safe your vote would make a difference in party funding and at the Senate level.

  2. THE Comment about the AEC is obscene, offensive and shows an individual whose Right to vote should be removed by Special Act of Parliament if he can be identified.

    As Ben pointed out AEC has no say over electoral single member constituency.

    MY experience with all AEC officers has always been positive. A few temporary employees have been officious in their dealings with public and party workers but they have been correct in every case but one.

    Ben,
    If ‘fuckthe AEC” sec (and sick) is so spineless that he can not put a name to his seditious utterings he should be barred from all Tally room discussions.

    He certainly has a unique way of expressing himself – 1 sentence of 58 words containing 3 case errors, (as, ryan and aec) and 5 Grammatical errors and 3 spelling mistakes. “goverment ” sic must take the cake on the Tallyroom site as the spelling error of the year.

    Note I did say “he” because the odds are if it is taking part in this discussion it is likely it will be a he.

    Tally room is debased by “fucktheAEC’s” ignorant, moronic, undemocratic, and obscene comments. I may disagree with every other writer of posts on this this thread but I do not detest the authors. I detest a person who purposely throws away their democratic right to draw obscenities on his ballot paper and I would be happy for them to be exiled to North Korea or Red China where they could experience a government which actually does “force you to live” in a location. The individual I am criticising can move to any electorate in Australia that he wants to. No one is forcing him to live in Ryan I am sure that DRO and OIC of his polling booth would be glad to see the back of him.

    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com

  3. Andrew, i’ll decide if I want to ban people. He had a substantive point to make, and I’m not fussed about the swearing or the relaxed spelling and grammar. Your eagerness to ban people from voting is a little bit too fascist for my taste.

  4. Ben
    Have a look at a Quadrant set of 3 articles about Fascism sorry do not have references in which Quadrant author stated that calling someone or something fascist says more about the political opinions of the writer than the opinions of the person or idea being talked about.
    The old Coms always called my political philosophy
    “Social fascism” but they at least knew what they meant even if no one else did.
    I have a thick skin and forgive you for the insult. Keep up good work.
    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com

  5. Thanks Andrew I cant get over how little people understand where they sit in the political sphere.
    Modern day lefties think that if you support in any way the traditional or accepted position you must be of the extreme right.
    IE in Europe whereby a nationalist Keynesian candidates are referred to as extreme right.
    In Australia if you are a social conservative on any issues ie abortion, gay marriage then you must be extreme right even though you might even support economically a left position.
    Seems like if you they disagree with any position you take then today’s lefties accuse everyone of being extreme right when in fact they have lost it and are the ones to the extreme left….

  6. Julian Simmons (LNP) now has an electronic sign up on Moggill Rd capturing in bound traffic. No indication that Jane Prentice will or will not jump ship and stand as independent. Libs must be worried to invest money so early in a seat that is a Liberal safe seat capturing Moggill Rd traffic. The chances of Lib losing seat even with a strong independent are slim. I don’t think Jane Prentice has a strong presence in electorate but she is not unknown.

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