Paterson – Australia 2019

ALP 10.7%

Incumbent MP
Meryl Swanson, since 2016.

Geography
Paterson lies on the north coast of New South Wales immediately to the north of Newcastle. The seat covers Maitland, Raymond Terrace, the Port Stephens peninsula and Kurri Kurri.

History
A seat called Paterson in the northeastern Hunter was first created in 1949 and won by Allen Fairhall of the Liberal Party, who served as a minister in the Menzies, Holt and Gorton governments before retirement in 1969. He was succeeded by Frank O’Keefe of the Country Party, who held the seat until 1984, when it was abolished in the redistribution.

The seat was recreated in 1993, when it was won by Labor’s Bob Horne. In 1996 he was defeated by Bob Baldwin of the Liberal Party. Over the next two elections, the ‘two Bobs’ successively defeated each other, with Horne winning in 1998 and Baldwin in 2001. Horne retired after his 2001 defeat and Baldwin was re-elected four times.

Baldwin retired in 2016, and was succeeded by Labor’s Meryl Swanson.

Candidates

Assessment
Paterson, with its new boundaries, has become safer for Labor.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Meryl Swanson Labor 46,09046.1+6.2
Karen Howard Liberal 31,52731.5+0.6
Graham BurstonOne Nation13,05613.0+11.6
John Brown Greens 5,7975.8-0.6
Peter ArenaChristian Democratic Party2,0582.1-0.1
Brian ClareRise Up Australia1,0071.0+0.5
Peter DavisCitizens Electoral Council5330.5-0.1
Informal5,1434.9

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Meryl Swanson Labor 60,77960.7+10.5
Karen Howard Liberal 39,28939.3-10.5

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into six parts. Polling places in the Port Stephens council area have been split between Raymond Terrace and Nelson Bay. Polling places around Kurri Kurri have been grouped together. Booths in the Newcastle council area and in the easternmost part of Maitland council area have been grouped as “central”, and the remainder of the Maitland area has been split between Maitland and East Maitland.

The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all six areas, ranging from 50.7% in Nelson Bay to 76.1% in Kurri Kurri.

One Nation polled well in Paterson, with a primary vote ranging from 10.6% in East Maitland to 17.5% in Kurri Kurri.

Voter groupON prim %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Nelson Bay11.150.712,08812.1
Raymond Terrace14.659.511,55011.5
East Maitland10.662.511,40011.4
Maitland13.668.411,28311.3
Central13.969.78,0708.1
Kurri Kurri17.576.15,8155.8
Other votes14.156.710,31710.3
Pre-poll12.557.729,54529.5

Election results in Paterson at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and One Nation primary votes.


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3 COMMENTS

  1. Indeed, If they do it will become even Safer for the ALP due to the split, And not 100% of the National voters will Preference the Liberals

  2. Ben
    Error in commentary above. Bob Baldwin was not defeated in 2016 – he did not run. The redistribution had made the seat almost unwinnable for him. Part of the reason for the big swing was the loss of his personal vote.

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