Jagajaga – Australia 2019

ALP 5.6%

Incumbent MP
Jenny Macklin, since 1996.

Geography
North-eastern suburbs of Melbourne. Jagajaga covers most of Banyule council area and southern parts of Nillumbik council area. Key suburbs include Ivanhoe, Heidelberg, Eaglemont, Rosanna, Viewbank, Yallambie, Montmorency, St Helena, Plenty, Diamond Creek, Watsonia North and Wattle Glen.

Redistribution
Jagajaga shifted north, losing Eltham, North Warrandyte and Research to Menzies, and gaining Watsonia North, Plenty, Diamond Creek and Wattle Glen from Scullin. These changes increased the Labor margin from 4.7% to 5.6%.

History
Jagajaga was created for the expansion of the House of Representatives in 1984, and has always been held by the ALP.

Jagajaga was first won in 1984 by Peter Staples, who had previously won the seat of Diamond Valley at the 1983 election, before it was abolished in 1984.

Staples was appointed as a junior minister after the 1987 election, and served until a reshuffle in 1993, and served as  a backbencher until his retirement at the 1996 election.

Jagajaga was won in 1996 by Jenny Macklin, and she has been re-elected seven times. Macklin served as a shadow minister for the entirety of the Howard government. She was Deputy Leader from the 2001 election until 2006, when she was defeated by Julia Gillard when Kevin Rudd defeated Kim Beazley for the party’s leadership.

Macklin served as a minister in the Labor government from 2007 to 2013.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Jenny Macklin is not running for re-election.

  • Kate Thwaites (Labor)

Assessment
Jagajaga is technically a marginal seat but has become safer in the recent redistribution and would require a substantial swing to the Liberal Party (against the national trend) to win. The absence of Jenny Macklin’s personal vote may help the Liberals.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
David Mulholland Liberal 37,92041.0-0.940.1
Jenny Macklin Labor 36,23839.2+1.241.1
Hugh Mckinnon Greens 13,69614.8+1.913.4
Jessica WardFamily First2,3412.5+0.92.0
Nathan Peter SchramAnimal Justice2,2352.4+2.42.7
Others0.7
Informal2,5722.7

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Jenny Macklin Labor 50,53654.7+1.555.6
David Mulholland Liberal 41,89445.3-1.544.4

Booth breakdown

Polling places in Jagajaga have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the centre (56.3%) and the south (58.8%) while the north was tied.

The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 11.2% in the north to 16.9% in the south.

Voter groupGRN prim %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Central13.156.327,11928.8
South16.958.817,70118.8
North11.250.010,45611.1
Other votes12.958.614,87615.8
Pre-poll12.652.923,91225.4

Election results in Jagajaga at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

Become a Patron!

About the Author

Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.