Northern Victoria – Victoria 2018

Incumbent MLCs

  • Mark Gepp (Labor), since 2017
  • Wendy Lovell (Liberal), since 2006. Previously MLC for North East 2002-2006
  • Luke O’Sullivan (Nationals), since 20161
  • Jaclyn Symes (Labor), since 2014
  • Daniel Young (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers), since 2014

1Luke O’Sullivan replaced Damian Drum on 13 October 2016 following Damian Drum’s resignation.

Geography

ElectorateMarginElectorateMarginElectorateMargin
Benambra LIB 9.7% Euroa NAT 14.5% Ovens Valley NAT 16.6%
Bendigo East ALP 5.0% Macedon ALP 3.8% SheppartonIND 2.6% vs NAT
Bendigo West ALP 12.2% Mildura NAT 8.0% vs IND Yan Yean ALP 3.7%
Eildon LIB 3.8% Murray Plains NAT 22.4%

Northern Victoria covers a large area stretching from the South Australian border to Wodonga along the Murray River, as well as including the northern fringe of Melbourne. The electorate covers the main centres of Bendigo, Mildura, Swan Hill, Wodonga and Shepparton.

The Nationals and Labor each hold four seats in the region. The Liberal Party holds two seats, and one is held by an independent.

History
The Northern Victoria region was created in 2006, when proportional representation was introduced.

The region produced the same result at both the 2006 and 2010 elections: two Labor, two Liberal and one National.

The Liberal Party lost their second seat to the Shooters and Fishers party in 2014.

2014 result

PartyVotes%SwingQuota
Liberal/Nationals 180,17741.2-7.22.4703
Labor 115,45826.4-1.11.5830
Greens 33,6277.7-1.10.4610
Democratic Labour Party18,1834.2+2.60.2493
Shooters and Fishers15,3033.5+3.50.2098
Sex Party14,3253.3-0.30.1964
Family First12,5412.90.00.1719
Palmer United Party12,6312.9+2.90.1732
Country Alliance10,9122.5-4.30.1496
Liberal Democrats10,2792.3+2.40.1409
Animal Justice7,7591.8+1.80.1064
Rise Up Australia2,7430.6+0.60.0376
Cyclists Party2,2450.5+0.50.0308
People Power1,4310.3+0.30.0196
Informal12,3752.8

Preference flows
On primary votes, the Liberal/Nationals ticket won two seats, and Labor won one.

Let’s fast forward to the last ten candidates running for the last two seats:

  • Jaclyn Symes (ALP) – 0.5762 quotas
  • Jenny O’Connor (GRN) – 0.4659
  • Amanda Millar (LIB) – 0.4615
  • Charlie Crutchfield (SXP) – 0.3210
  • Gerard Murphy (DLP) – 0.2511
  • Daniel Young (SFP) – 0.2305
  • Robert Danieli (ACA) – 0.1853
  • Alan Howard (FF) – 0.1773
  • Hans Paas (PUP) – 0.1758
  • Tim Wilms (LDP) – 0.1442

LDP preferences flowed to the Country Alliance, pushing them into fourth place:

  • Symes (ALP) – 0.5765
  • O’Connor (GRN) – 0.4666
  • Millar (LIB) – 0.4631
  • Danieli (ACA) – 0.3225
  • Crutchfield (SXP) – 0.3215
  • Murphy (DLP) – 0.2516
  • Young (SFP) – 0.2311
  • Howard (FF) – 0.1779
  • Paas (PUP) – 0.1761

Palmer United preferences flowed to the Shooters and Fishers, pushing Young from seventh to fourth.

  • Symes (ALP) – 0.5773
  • O’Connor (GRN) – 0.4677
  • Millar (LIB) – 0.4640
  • Young (SFP) – 0.3954
  • Danieli (ACA) – 0.3239
  • Crutchfield (SXP) – 0.3235
  • Murphy (DLP) – 0.2529
  • Howard (FF) – 0.1795

Family First preferences went to the Country Alliance, pushing Danieli into second place:

  • Symes (ALP) – 0.5783
  • Danieli (ACA) – 0.4840
  • O’Connor (GRN) – 0.4688
  • Millar (LIB) – 0.4683
  • Young (SFP) – 0.3973
  • Crutchfield (SXP) – 0.3249
  • Murphy (DLP) – 0.2558

DLP preferences also flowed to the Country Alliance, pushing Danieli into the lead:

  • Danieli (ACA) – 0.7179
  • Symes (ALP) – 0.5806
  • O’Connor (GRN) – 0.4713
  • Millar (LIB) – 0.4704
  • Young (SFP) – 0.4001
  • Crutchfield (SXP) – 0.3306

Sex Party preferences mostly flowed to the Shooters, with some going to the Greens:

  • Danieli (ACA) – 0.7207
  • Young (SFP) – 0.6088
  • Symes (ALP) – 0.5832
  • O’Connor (GRN) – 0.5756
  • Millar (LIB) – 0.4714

Liberal preferences mostly flowed to the Shooters, electing Young. His small surplus flowed to Danieli, leaving this count:

  • Young (SFP) – 1.0000
  • Danieli (ACA) – 0.7645
  • Symes (ALP) – 0.5855
  • O’Connor (GRN) – 0.5833

The Greens’ O’Connor was excluded, with most of her preferences flowing to Labor.

  • Symes (ALP) – 1.1069
  • Young (SFP) – 1.0000
  • Danieli (ACA) – 0.7699
  • O’Connor (GRN) – 0.0083

Candidates

  • A – Miranda Jones (Voluntary Euthanasia)
  • B – Tania Maxwell (Derryn Hinch’s Justice)
  • C – Ewan McDonald (Australian Liberty Alliance)
  • D – Isaac Golden (Health Australia)
  • E – Madeleine Wearne (Sustainable Australia)
  • F – Glynn Jarrett (Animal Justice)
  • G – Nicole Rowan (Greens)
  • H – Daniel Young (Shooters, Fishers & Farmers)
  • I – Labor
    1. Mark Gepp
    2. Jaclyn Symes
    3. Sukhraj Singh
  • J – Tim Quilty (Liberal Democrats)
  • K – Phil Larkin (Country Party)
  • L – Josh Hudson (Hudson for Northern Victoria)
  • M – Moira Macdonald (Socialists)
  • N – Martin Leahy (Reason)
  • O – Liberal
    1. Wendy Lovell
    2. Luke O’Sullivan
    3. Brad Hearn
  • P – Dennis Lacey (Aussie Battler)
  • Q – Scott Cowie (Transport Matters)
  • R – Chris McCormack (Democratic Labour)

Assessment
The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers will require favourable preferences, or a big boost in their primary vote, to hold on to their seat. The Coalition would be hoping to regain their third seat.

Regional breakdown
The Liberal/Nationals ticket topped the primary vote across the region, and they also topped the poll in ten out of eleven districts.

Labor topped the primary vote in Bendigo West.

The Liberal/Nationals vote was strongest at the western end, in the seats of Mildura and Murray Plains.

Labor’s vote was strongest in Bendigo East and Bendigo West, and generally better closer to Melbourne.

The Greens vote was also higher closer to Melbourne.

Results of the 2014 Victorian upper house election in the Northern Victoria region

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3 COMMENTS

  1. Albury isn’t one of the main centres that Northern Victoria covers, as Albury is in New South Wales. It would be Wodonga.

  2. Nats should really have #1 and #3 on the ticket given that they hold more lower house seats in the region. Not surprising that they have a poor deal though given that factional hack Luke O’Sullivan and his puppeteer Peter Walsh are in charge of the negotiations – both are woefully inept.

  3. I would think the Hudson for Northern Victoria party candidate has a good chance. He’s been campaigning with all the independents in the lower house seats, who are urging people to Vote 1 Independent in the lower house and 1 Hudson the Upper house.

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