ALP 5.0%
Incumbent MP
Jacinta Allan, since 1999.
Geography
Eastern suburbs of Bendigo, and areas to the north of Bendigo, including Strathfieldsaye, Huntly and Elmore. Bendigo East includes a majority of those rural areas included in the City of Greater Bendigo, as well as parts of Loddon Shire.
History
Bendigo East has existed for two different periods: from 1904-1927, and since 1985.
The original seat was first won by an unaligned MP, but was held by the ALP from 1907 to 1927.
The new seat was won in 1985 by Michael John of the Liberal Party. He served on the Liberal frontbench from 1988, and served in the ministry for the Kennett government’s first term from 1992-1996.
In 1999, John was defeated by 25-year-old Jacinta Allan of the ALP. Allan joined the Bracks ministry in 2002, and has served on the Labor frontbench ever since, as a minister until 2010 and again since 2014.
Candidates
- Michael Belardinelli (Independent)
- Ian Ellis (Liberal)
- Helen Leach (Democratic Labour)
- Jacinta Allan (Labor)
- Nakita Thomson (Greens)
- Gaelle Broad (Nationals)
Assessment
Bendigo East is a marginal Labor seat.
2014 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jacinta Allan | Labor | 18,651 | 46.3 | +3.1 |
| Greg Bickley | Liberal | 16,492 | 40.9 | +6.9 |
| Jennifer Alden | Greens | 2,935 | 7.3 | +1.0 |
| Glenis Bradshaw | Family First | 963 | 2.4 | +1.1 |
| Cameron Dowling | Country Alliance | 714 | 1.8 | -1.7 |
| Lynette Kay Bell | Rise Up Australia | 550 | 1.4 | +1.4 |
| Informal | 1,456 | 3.5 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jacinta Allan | Labor | 22,187 | 55.0 | +1.9 |
| Greg Bickley | Liberal | 18,118 | 45.0 | -1.9 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Bendigo East have been divided into four parts. Three of these areas are in the Bendigo urban area: Bendigo Central, Bendigo North and Bendigo South. The remainder of the seat was grouped as “rural”.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the three most populous areas, ranging from 53.8% in southern Bendigo to 61.4% in northern Bendigo. The Liberal Party won 62.9% in rural areas.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Bendigo North | 61.4 | 7,713 | 19.1 |
| Bendigo Central | 55.7 | 7,065 | 17.5 |
| Bendigo South | 53.8 | 4,220 | 10.5 |
| Rural | 37.1 | 1,419 | 3.5 |
| Other votes | 56.3 | 4,718 | 11.7 |
| Pre-poll | 53.1 | 15,170 | 37.6 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Bendigo East at the 2014 Victorian state election
Expect the Nats candidate Gaelle Broad to out poll the Lib – so will be a close result.
The Nat’s coming second is wishful thinking at best. Nats polled less than 5% in almost every single booth in the fed electorate of Bendigo that is also contained in Bendigo east, with the exception of Elmore (15.29%), Gooronong (10.10%), and Raywood (5.10%)
Aren’t the Nats a dead party walking? If you could vote for a Libs or a Libs in a big hat why not just vote for the Lib?
In other states the Nats could be in dire straights, lower house seats starting to be threatened the likes of One Nation, Katter, and the Shooters at state level. No serious non-coalition aligned “country” party has eventuated in Victoria yet though.
I think if the Nats quit the Coalition they could live on as an actual political party, albeit only usually relevant in upper-houses.
Last time Nats ran – 2 elections ago just missed out in Bendigo West
Nationals outpolling the Libs: dreaming.
The highest vote the Nationals have achieved in recent history, in this seat, was in 2002, where they polled 10% of the vote. Subsequent elections, they polled less.
If you want to go back further in this seat’s electoral history – the highest the Nationals have polled in this seat was around 15%, at the 1988 state election. Never have they outpolled the Libs.
Bendigo East (and arguably Bendigo West, where they actually challenged in 2010 but ONLY by standing a relatively high profile candidate, Labor still retained) is too suburban for the Nationals to ever be a serious threat.
Bendigo West in 2010 was an unusual case in that the Nationals had a famous local footballer standing for them.
Apart from that, they haven’t cracked double figures in either of the Bendigo seats in recent times (if they even bothered running)
Agreed, the Liberals will definitely finish in the top two in Bendigo East, but the Nats are running their best candidate and campaign in decades.
Labor hold fairly comfortably is my prediction.
This seat won’t flip unless the city of bendigo trends more liberal, or if the liberals get a 1992/1996 result
My prediction: Labor hold, the Liberals would only gain this in a landslide now.
Well for all of our rubbishing of the Nationals here, they ended up doing almost as well as the Liberals (17% vs 20%). Depending on how the preferences flow, they might possibly even make the 2PP cut.
wow, that national result was very unexpected tbh.