The Gabba – Brisbane 2016

Council margin – ALP 8.3%
Mayoral margin – LNP 6.1%

Incumbent councillor
Helen Abrahams, since 2008. Previously councillor for Dutton Park 2003-2008, councillor for Paddington 1991-1994.

Geography
Inner south of Brisbane. The Gabba covers the suburbs across the river from the Brisbane city centre, including East Brisbane, Dutton Park and West End.

Map of the Gabba's 2012 and 2016 boundaries. 2012 boundaries marked as red lines, 2016 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of the Gabba’s 2012 and 2016 boundaries. 2012 boundaries marked as red lines, 2016 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
The Gabba lost Coorparoo to the new Coorparoo ward, and gained a small area from the old Holland Park ward.

History
The Gabba replaced the Dutton Park ward, which covered the inner south and some nearby areas. Dutton Park was traditionally considered to be a safe Labor ward.

Tim Quinn was first elected as a Labor councillor for the Gabba in 1985. He held the ward covering the area right up until 2003.

Quinn served in civic cabinet throughout Jim Soorley’s mayoralty, serving as deputy mayor from 1997. Quinn was appointed as Lord Mayor to finish Soorley’s fourth mayoral term in 2003, and resigned from Dutton Park. Quinn was defeated by Campbell Newman in 2004.

Helen Abrahams was appointed to finish Quinn’s term as Dutton Park councillor in 2003. Abrahams had previously served one term in Paddington from 1991 to 1994.

Abrahams was re-elected in 2004 with a 9.1% margin over the Liberal Party, but the Greens polled 25.1% in their first contest in the area.

Dutton Park was replaced by the Gabba in 2008, and Abrahams scraped by with a 2.7% margin. The Liberal Party outpolled Labor on primary votes, 37.1% to 35.8%, and Labor only won on Greens preferences.

Abrahams was re-elected again in 2012. She increased her primary vote to 45% mostly at the expense of the Greens, and increased her margin to 8%.

Candidates
Sitting Labor councillor Helen Abrahams is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Labor shouldn’t have any trouble retaining the Gabba from the LNP, but the Gabba is the best ward for the Greens. Despite Greens ambitions to win this seat, their drop is still well below where it was in 2004 and 2008. The Greens will need a strong primary vote to be a threat, and are unlikely to seriously challenge Labor in 2016.

2012 council result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Helen Abrahams Labor 8,63745.1+9.345.1
Francis Quinlivan Liberal National 7,11737.2+0.037.0
Gary Kane Greens 3,38717.7-7.917.9
Informal3561.8

2012 council two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Helen Abrahams Labor 10,10758.0+5.358.3
Francis Quinlivan Liberal National 7,31542.0-5.341.7
Exhausted1,675

2012 mayoral result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Graham Quirk Liberal National 9,11347.7-0.947.4
Ray Smith Labor 5,63929.5+2.329.1
Andrew Bartlett Greens 3,91720.5-1.221.0
Rory KillenIndependent2941.5+1.51.6
Chris CarsonIndependent1600.8+0.80.9
Informal3701.9

2012 mayoral two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Graham Quirk Liberal National 9,37156.2-3.656.1
Ray Smith Labor 7,29943.8+3.643.9
Exhausted2,453
Polling places in the Gabba at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election. North-East in blue, South-East in orange, West in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in the Gabba at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election. North-East in blue, South-East in orange, West in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in the Gabba have been split into three parts: north-east, south-east and west.

The ALP’s primary vote ranged from 40.7% in the north-east to 52.8% in the south-east.

The Liberal National Party vote was almost 46% in the north-east, and less than 30% in the other parts.

The Greens vote ranged from 13.3% in the north-east to 22.1% in the west.

Voter groupALP councilLNP councilGRN councilTotal votes% of votes
West49.028.922.15,66733.1
North-East40.745.913.34,74227.7
South-East52.829.717.52,26413.2
Other votes41.041.517.44,43025.9
Two-party-preferred votes for councillor in the Gabba at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.
Two-party-preferred votes for councillor in the Gabba at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.
Greens primary votes for councillor in the Gabba at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.
Greens primary votes for councillor in the Gabba at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.

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