Blaxland – Australia 2013

ALP 12.2%

Incumbent MP
Jason Clare, since 2007.

Geography
South-western Sydney. Blaxland covers large parts of the City of Bankstown. A majority of the seat lies in Bankstown council area, along with small parts of Fairfield, Holroyd, Parramatta and Auburn council areas. It covers the centre of Bankstown and the suburbs of Condell Park, Yagoona, Georges Hall, Bass Hill, Birrong, Chester Hill, Villawood, Carramar, Guildford, Yennora, Regents Park and parts of Fairfield and Granville.

Redistribution
Blaxland changed substantially around its fringes. It lost Cabramatta to Fowler and Greenacre and Chullora to Watson. In exchange Blaxland expanded to the south and north, gaining more of Bankstown council area from Banks and expanding into Guildford and South Granville, gaining territory from Reid.

History
Blaxland is a safe Labor seat, and has been held by the ALP continuously since 1949.

Blaxland was first won in 1949 by Labor candidate James Harrison. Harrison defeated former NSW Labor premier Jack Lang, who had won the seat of Reid as an independent in 1946.

Harrison held Blaxland as a Labor backbencher for twenty years, retiring in 1969. He was succeeded by 25-year-old Paul Keating. Keating quickly rose through the ranks of the ALP, joining Gough Whitlam’s ministry in 1975. Keating went on to serve as Treasurer in the Hawke government and after a period of turmoil was elected Labor leader in 1991, becoming Prime Minister.

Keating was re-elected as Prime Minister at the 1993 election, but lost the 1996 election. Following his defeat he resigned as Member for Blaxland.

The ensuing by-election was won by Labor candidate Michael Hatton. Hatton held the seat for the entirety of the Howard government, but was challenged for preselection in 2007 to Jason Clare, a former advisor to NSW Premier Bob Carr, who had the support of the NSW Labor Party executive, and Clare won the seat at the 2007 election. Clare won re-election in 2010.

Candidates

  • Nafez Taleb (Katter’s Australian Party)
  • Anthony Khouri (Liberal)
  • Zali Burrows (Palmer United Party)
  • Jason Clare (Labor)
  • Juliat Nasr (Christian Democratic Party)
  • John Ky (Greens)
  • Boutros Zalloua (Democratic Labour Party)

Assessment
Blaxland is a safe Labor seat.

2010 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Jason ClareALP37,64150.98-8.78
Mark MajewskiLIB24,58333.30+7.11
Malikeh MichelsGRN4,6256.26+0.69
Abdul CharafIND2,1312.89+2.89
Richard PhillipsSEP2,0582.79+2.79
Bob VinnicombeON1,3511.83+0.74
David BallIND1,1531.56+1.56
Ronald PoulsenIND2880.39+0.39

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Jason ClareALP45,94862.23-4.42
Mark MajewskiLIB27,88237.77+4.42
Polling places in Blaxland at the 2010 federal election. Central in orange, North in green, South in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Blaxland at the 2010 federal election. Central in orange, North in green, South in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas: north, central and south:

  • Central – Chester Hill, Villawood.
  • North – Auburn, Berala, Granville, Guildford.
  • South – Bankstown, Bass Hill, Condell Park, Yagoona.

The ALP won a majority in all three areas, varying from 60.3% in the north to 65.4% in the centre.

Voter groupGRN %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
South5.6961.7324,81233.61
North6.0160.2617,45923.65
Central6.1765.3616,84122.81
Other votes7.6561.8614,71819.93
Two-party-preferred votes in Blaxland at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Blaxland at the 2010 federal election.

74 COMMENTS

  1. A required swing of 12.2 percent from 2010 election is now about 2 per cent. I dunno, it’ll be tough but Khouri may have Clare’s measure. It’ll be interesting. The betting odds still hugely favour ALP 1.05/8.00. It may be worth a small wager on the Libs.

  2. There is no chance the Liberals will get this as far as I am concerned. If you want a better bet then I’d go to either Kingsford Smith, McMahon, or Werriwa. Blaxland is routinely in the safest 10 seats for the ALP and despite there appearing a reasonable swing is on in NSW, I cannot see this falling.

  3. I picked up a how to vote for labor, zali burrows is the last preference not liberal’s anthony Khoury. Certainly a sign that Labor is not worried about Liberal winning if he is not made last. I dare say jason clare confident holding his job.

  4. I voted pre-poll today. I was pretty sure I wouldn’t change my mind before September 7 so decided to get it over with. According to the latest opinion polls, Rudd and Khouri are in similar positions in their respective seats – behind 48-52tpp. One of them appears unhinged and close to melt-down while the other is getting on with it, quietly confident he can represent Blaxland and make a difference to the area – for a change. My reading is that if the Liberals win Blaxland, they will do all they can to keep it.

  5. I hardly doubt Khouri is confident at all about winning and if he does, its not a seat that will stay liberal as they would want to secure Lindsay, Greenway, Robertson in the future

  6. Saw Jason Clare at Centro Bankstown this morning tossing around his signature blue bags. Heckled by crowd – “we need good government, not shopping bags” – lots of laughs so he packed up and left. If he loses the safest ALP seat in NSW, his political career will be dead as a dodo. What are they going to do, give him another safe seat to lose. He’s even looks confused. His bags are as empty as his promises. You can’t deliver if you’re not in government.

  7. Ben pretty sure this comment is starting to border on policy.

    And Burko, believe it or not I was there, heard the heckle, and saw Clare didn’t leave. And I’d also point its not the safest labor seat in NSW. And i’d say that the bags are more useful then the pamphlet the libs wave around at ever press conference

  8. Oh, another thing. The whole area where Clare was campaigning stank of BO. It was quite pungent. A few women just inside the centre doors were calling out to remind the campaigners of the importance of deodorant. To be honest I had to whiff myself (once out of site) to make sure it wasn’t me. It was harsh – and the hecklers were unforgiving. That’s it for now.

  9. This is beyond ridiculous, so now your accusing Clare, of not using deodorant. I honestly think libs would love to see the world as you see it Burko, not even DB has been this bias.

  10. Q: What’s the only thing Jason Clare and the ALP have delivered to the people of Blaxland?

    A: Empty shopping bags.

    Not funny, I know, but true in more ways than one.

  11. Look Burko, you’ll find most candidates hand them out so that way people use them time and time again and get his name out in the community more often. So bit of common sense mate, where would he hand shopping bags out? Oh I know, perhaps a shopping centre….

  12. Prediction: Obviously Labor hang on, but what sort of swing do the Liberals get? The Liberals didn’t get such a big swing here last time, but the 2007 margin looked deflated anyway. ReachTEL has this close, but I think Clare comfortably wins.

  13. Observer, just to be clear, I am not biased at all when discussing likely wins and losses. You will see that on election night.

  14. Well when you tell us you either say certain liberal gain (said that bout Deakin with most papers not certain as opposed to Corangamite) or that the liberals are in a box seat position to take the seat meaning labor still in front

  15. All,
    I now disagree with many on this sight. I’ve contributed unbiasedly ’til this point (or have tried to).
    I’m now laying it on the line. Abbott will win mega-size. Khouri will beat NRL-hating Clare. Blaxland will benefit from this – big-time. C’mon coolies, get over your prejudices and give our community the benefit of change. If you keep doing the same thing, nothing will change. If you are unhappy with your lot . . . then do something different. Don’t vote for the same if you want to change. Personally, i’m loving my new life-view.

  16. Jason Clare has done himself no favours in attempting to attack the NRL via ASADA, right in Bulldogs Heartland. Is he asking for trouble from doing that?

  17. Allegations this morning that Clare has vigilantes tearing down other candidates posters in the area and paying bribes to islamic and maronite communities… these can be confirmed, I have received letters in the mail address to me where Clare has used the maronite eparchy database to target the letters to the electorate without the consent of the electorate and without the consent of our Bishop as Clare also included a letter from the bishop in his propaganda.

    I hope Clare becomes history on Saturday…. and hopefully you meet the same fate that your colleague Alan Ashton met back in the state election when he lost by a couple hundred votes…

    Dont expect friendlies on Saturday…

  18. No idea why the preference flow here was so ordinary for Clare. Despite getting a large swing on primary votes, the 2PP is still the same.

Comments are closed.