Remarkably, the result in the Senate is much more clear-cut than the result in the House of Representatives.
The Greens are on track to win a Senate seat in all six states, giving them a total of nine seats. This clean sweep is a feat never achieved by the Democratic Labor Party or the Democrats, the only ever minor parties to ever win substantial numbers of Senate seats.
The Democrats achieved their best ever Senate result in 1996, when they won five Senate seats, electing a Senator in all mainland states, but losing to Bob Brown in Tasmania. The Democrats also reached their peak number of senators after the 1998 election, when they elected four senators to join the five elected in 1996, giving them a total of nine. The Greens have now matched that total.
The Greens polled over a quota in both Tasmania and Victoria. In Victoria, the Greens polled just over a quota, but in Tasmania the Greens polled over 20%, and the second Green reaches almost half a quota before being excluded.
In terms of other minor parties, it is less clear. In South Australia, Family First candidate Bob Day trails the Liberal Party by 0.45% at the key exclusion point, and earlier in the night was in a position to win the seat. If Family First can gain ground, they will likely win the final seat on Liberal preferences, but it seems most likely the Liberal Party will win the seat.
In Victoria, Antony Green’s Senate calculator is currently giving the final seat to John Madigan of the Democratic Labor Party. The DLP polled over 2% of the primary vote, and gathers preferences until, at the key point, the DLP overtakes sitting Liberal Senator Julian McGauran and wins the seat on Liberal preferences.
Having said that, at an earlier point, Madigan only outpolls Family First Senator Steve Fielding by 0.07% of the vote, and if Family First was to overtake Madigan at that point, Fielding would likely be re-elected. At the point where Madigan overtakes McGauran, he only does so by 0.66%. It is possible McGauran could win the seat.
In the states of New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia, the result was the same: three Coalition, two Labor, and one Green. In Tasmania, the ALP has managed to win three seats, to two for the Liberal Party and one for the Greens. In Victoria, the ALP has gained two seats, the Liberals one, the Nationals one and the Greens one, with the final spot going to the DLP, Family First or the Liberals.
Overall this produces a result of 34-35 Coalition, 31 Labor, 9 Greens, as well as Nick Xenophon and possibly Steve Fielding or the DLP’s John Madigan. Regardless of who wins the final seat, the Greens will have sole balance of power, with Xenophon and any other minor party senators unable to influence legislation.