The AEC yesterday released the preference orders determined by political parties running in the Senate, which will be used to distribute above-the-line preferences, and determine Senate results in a difficult-to-understand process.
William Bowe at the Poll Bludger has posted simplified versions of the tickets, and Antony Green will soon be posting Senate calculators, which will allow you to predict the results in the Senate based on different primary vote levels.
The Democrats in the ACT and South Australia have pushed the Greens below major party candidates, making it harder for the Greens to win those seats, despite the Greens putting the Democrats ahead of all other significant parties in every state.
In the ACT, the Democrats have put the Greens below the Liberal Party. With only five groups running, the Democrats should still poll a decent number of votes, and it will be extremely difficult for the Greens to outpoll the Liberals with the Democrats flowing the other way. The Greens have argued that they had a deal with the Democrats to swap preferences, while the Democrats have argued that ACT Liberal Senator Gary Humphries is a “small-l liberal” who would be a “hand of restraint” on a possible Prime Minister Abbott, which seems pretty unlikely.
In South Australia, where the Greens are competing with the ALP, the Democrats also preferenced against the Greens. Former Democrats leader and current Greens candidate Andrew Bartlett attacked Democrats preference decisions as “ludicrous & intellectually dishonest”.
In NSW, the Liberal Democrats received a strong preference flow from many microparties, but failed to get the preferences they needed from the Christian Democrats and Shooters which would allow them to compete with Labor and the Greens. Antony Green has analysed the preference flows, and argues that the Climate Sceptics and Family First have a chance of winning in South Australia.