Tasmania 2010: predictions

I have previously made predictions of election results for a number of elections, including Queensland in 2009 and elections for the ACT, Canada and the United States in 2008. I thought it was about time to post predictions for this weekend’s elections in Tasmania and South Australia. I will post my prediction for South Australia tomorrow, along with maps showing how this would look. As for Tasmania, my overall prediction is:

  • Liberal – 10 (+3)
  • Labor – 9 (-5)
  • Greens – 6 (+2)

This would produce a hung parliament with the Greens determining which party forms government. This prediction would involve the Liberals and Labor winning two seats each in Bass, Braddon, Franklin and Lyons, with the Liberals and Greens winning two seats each in Denison.

Full predictions (including non-core predictions of individual winners) after the fold. I encourage readers to post their own predictions.

Elsewhere predictions have been made by Peter Tucker and Kevin Bonham.

I predict Bass will remain steady with two seats going to each major party and one to the Greens.
With the retirement of Liberal MP Sue Napier and Labor MP Steve Cox I predict the three remaining MPs will be re-elected. Former federal MP Michael Ferguson should also have no trouble winning the second Liberal seat. It was not clear which Labor candidate stood out as their second successful candidate, but I chose prominent unionist Scott McLean. Beaconsfield mine survivor Brant Webb could also be a contender for the second ALP seat.



    • Kim Booth (GRN)
    • Michael Ferguson (LIB)
    • Peter Gutwein (LIB)



    • Scott McLean (ALP)
    • Michelle O’Byrne (ALP)


The increased Greens vote across the state and in Braddon points to the Greens picking up a seat in Braddon, which would be at the expense of the ALP’s third seat. With the retirement of Labor MP Steve Kons, I am predicting that the four remaining sitting MPs will be re-elected, alongside Greens candidate Paul O’Halloran.

  • Brenton Best (ALP)
  • Bryan Green (ALP)
  • Paul O’Halloran (GRN)
  • Jeremy Rockliff (LIB)
  • Brett Whiteley (LIB)


The most heavily contested seat. I predict that the ALP will lose two of its three seats, and the Liberal Party and the Greens will both increase their seat numbers from one to two. Deputy Mayor of Hobart Helen Burnett will join fellow Green Cassy O’Connor. With no incumbent Liberals running for re-election I predict Matthew Groom and Elise Archer will be elected. I predict the Premier, David Bartlett will be re-elected. There is also still a possibility that the ALP may hold on to one of its other seats, which could be won either by sitting MP Lisa Singh or by new candidate Scott Bacon. Some polls have suggested Bacon may even defeat Bartlett for the sole Labor seat. While this is a possibility, I don’t see it happening.

  • Elise Archer (LIB)
  • David Bartlett (ALP)
  • Helen Burnet (GRN)
  • Matthew Groom (LIB)
  • Cassy O’Connor (GRN)

I predict the ALP will lose one of its three seats to the Liberals, producing a 2-2-1 split. Jacquie Petrusma is the frontrunner to take the second Liberal seat, joining Liberal leader Will Hodgman. On the Labor side, Deputy Premier Lara Giddings should win re-election. I predict that union leader David O’Byrne will defeat sitting MPs Ross Butler and Daniel Hulme. Greens leader Nick McKim should win re-election. Polls suggest the Greens could overtake the ALP and win a second seat. While it is more likely that O’Byrne will win the final seat, it is possible that preferences from McKim could elect Greens candidate Adam Burling, giving the Greens a seventh seat.

  • Lara Giddings (ALP)
  • Will Hodgman (LIB)
  • Nick McKim (GRN)
  • David O’Byrne (ALP)
  • Jacquie Petrusma (LIB)

The ALP will almost certainly lose one of their three seats to the Liberal Party. I am predicting that Heather Butler will lose her seat, while fellow sitting MPs David Llewellyn and Michael Polley will be re-elected, but it is possible Butler could defeat one of her fellow Labor MPs. Alongside Rene Hidding, it is not clear who is the leading Liberal to take their second seat. I have tipped the Mayor of Meander Valley, Mark Shelton, although it is hard to pick a frontrunner. Tim Morris should be re-elected for the Greens.

  • Rene Hidding (LIB)
  • David Llewellyn (ALP)
  • Tim Morris (GRN)
  • Michael Polley (ALP)
  • Mark Shelton (LIB)
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