Tasmania 2010: predictions

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I have previously made predictions of election results for a number of elections, including Queensland in 2009 and elections for the ACT, Canada and the United States in 2008. I thought it was about time to post predictions for this weekend’s elections in Tasmania and South Australia. I will post my prediction for South Australia tomorrow, along with maps showing how this would look. As for Tasmania, my overall prediction is:

  • Liberal – 10 (+3)
  • Labor – 9 (-5)
  • Greens – 6 (+2)

This would produce a hung parliament with the Greens determining which party forms government. This prediction would involve the Liberals and Labor winning two seats each in Bass, Braddon, Franklin and Lyons, with the Liberals and Greens winning two seats each in Denison.

Full predictions (including non-core predictions of individual winners) after the fold. I encourage readers to post their own predictions.

Elsewhere predictions have been made by Peter Tucker and Kevin Bonham.

Bass
I predict Bass will remain steady with two seats going to each major party and one to the Greens.
With the retirement of Liberal MP Sue Napier and Labor MP Steve Cox I predict the three remaining MPs will be re-elected. Former federal MP Michael Ferguson should also have no trouble winning the second Liberal seat. It was not clear which Labor candidate stood out as their second successful candidate, but I chose prominent unionist Scott McLean. Beaconsfield mine survivor Brant Webb could also be a contender for the second ALP seat.

 

 

    • Kim Booth (GRN)
    • Michael Ferguson (LIB)
    • Peter Gutwein (LIB)

 

 

    • Scott McLean (ALP)
    • Michelle O’Byrne (ALP)

 

Braddon
The increased Greens vote across the state and in Braddon points to the Greens picking up a seat in Braddon, which would be at the expense of the ALP’s third seat. With the retirement of Labor MP Steve Kons, I am predicting that the four remaining sitting MPs will be re-elected, alongside Greens candidate Paul O’Halloran.

  • Brenton Best (ALP)
  • Bryan Green (ALP)
  • Paul O’Halloran (GRN)
  • Jeremy Rockliff (LIB)
  • Brett Whiteley (LIB)

 

Denison
The most heavily contested seat. I predict that the ALP will lose two of its three seats, and the Liberal Party and the Greens will both increase their seat numbers from one to two. Deputy Mayor of Hobart Helen Burnett will join fellow Green Cassy O’Connor. With no incumbent Liberals running for re-election I predict Matthew Groom and Elise Archer will be elected. I predict the Premier, David Bartlett will be re-elected. There is also still a possibility that the ALP may hold on to one of its other seats, which could be won either by sitting MP Lisa Singh or by new candidate Scott Bacon. Some polls have suggested Bacon may even defeat Bartlett for the sole Labor seat. While this is a possibility, I don’t see it happening.

  • Elise Archer (LIB)
  • David Bartlett (ALP)
  • Helen Burnet (GRN)
  • Matthew Groom (LIB)
  • Cassy O’Connor (GRN)

Franklin
I predict the ALP will lose one of its three seats to the Liberals, producing a 2-2-1 split. Jacquie Petrusma is the frontrunner to take the second Liberal seat, joining Liberal leader Will Hodgman. On the Labor side, Deputy Premier Lara Giddings should win re-election. I predict that union leader David O’Byrne will defeat sitting MPs Ross Butler and Daniel Hulme. Greens leader Nick McKim should win re-election. Polls suggest the Greens could overtake the ALP and win a second seat. While it is more likely that O’Byrne will win the final seat, it is possible that preferences from McKim could elect Greens candidate Adam Burling, giving the Greens a seventh seat.

  • Lara Giddings (ALP)
  • Will Hodgman (LIB)
  • Nick McKim (GRN)
  • David O’Byrne (ALP)
  • Jacquie Petrusma (LIB)

Lyons
The ALP will almost certainly lose one of their three seats to the Liberal Party. I am predicting that Heather Butler will lose her seat, while fellow sitting MPs David Llewellyn and Michael Polley will be re-elected, but it is possible Butler could defeat one of her fellow Labor MPs. Alongside Rene Hidding, it is not clear who is the leading Liberal to take their second seat. I have tipped the Mayor of Meander Valley, Mark Shelton, although it is hard to pick a frontrunner. Tim Morris should be re-elected for the Greens.

  • Rene Hidding (LIB)
  • David Llewellyn (ALP)
  • Tim Morris (GRN)
  • Michael Polley (ALP)
  • Mark Shelton (LIB)
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19 COMMENTS

  1. AARRGGHH! Do you really think Archer will get in? And interesting about Bartlett. I wouldn’t be taking that for granted.

  2. I predict 10-10-5. And, technically, it would not have to be the Greens who’d determine who forms government. The Labor and Liberal parties could come to an arrangement to share power. And I really, really hope they do, as in the long run, it’d be the best thing to happen for the Greens since Bob’s election to the Senate.

  3. Alister, seriously there is no way they will do that. We aren’t quite there yet.

    And Rox, I don’t know that much about the Liberal candidates in Denison, but my impression is Groom and Archer have been most prominent. And I don’t rule out the possibility of Bartlett losing his seat, I explicitly mention it, but I think it’s more likely he will keep it.

  4. Hmm, I’m gonna go work on a prediction for SA, but I think I’ll skip Tassie, at least on the individual candidates, and just say that I’d probably have to go for the same seat totals.

  5. Given you could argue that Labor are closer to the Liberals than they are to the Greens, only arrogance gets in the way of a grand coalition between Labour and the Liberals. If this was actually an option, it would make the Greens less of a king maker and likely result in a better minority or coalition government.

  6. Anyway, my predictions are
    10 Liberal
    10 Labor
    5 Greens

    With a Liberal minority Government with a Liberal Green agreement, similiar to the ACT

  7. I predict Liberals 11, Labor 10, Greens 4.
    The Liberals will win a seat from Labor in Braddon, Denison, Frankin & Lyons. No change to the 2/2/1 split in Bass.
    I think the EMRS poll has overstated the Greens support by 2-4%. Thus they won’t win a seat in Braddon. With Kons retiring, Adam Brooks looks likely to win a third seat for the Liberals.
    In Denison the Liberals will win 2 seats: Groom & Archer, the Greens 1 seat: O’Connor and Labor 2 seats: Bartlett & Singh (although Sturgess may well beat Singh for the 5th seat).

  8. I am really looking forward to watching the count on Saturday! Overall I want to say 9-10-6 to the Libs but on a seat by seat basis I end up with 10-9-6. It is all about which candidates get the quota so I guess I’ll have to go for 10-9-6 as my offical prediction.

    Bass: As I mentioned on the Bass post itself, the Greens have a great team of candidates here which should see them easily on a quota. The polls and gut feeling give an obvious 2-2 split for the other seats. If the Greens are well over a quota then that would put McGinity in contention for the Libs, but I unfortunately have to agree with Ben’s choices.

    Braddon: 2-2-1 again. Adam Brooks of the Libs is campaigining pretty hard – I was in Braddon in January and there were posters everywhere. Rockliff and Whiteley are both OK to good performers so will be hard to knock them off, but self-made men are respected on the N-W coast. I’d like to tip him to get in but not sure at whose expense, I’m going to swap him for Whiteley as he was fairly weak on primaries and on preferences last time.

    Lyons: Another 2-2-1. Heather Butler to go. The second seat for the libs is a tough one – the Mayor of Meander Valley is a good choice though – that area is a strong Liberal area so he may well end up with a lot of primaries. Hidding is a northerner too though. Despite the fact that she is endorsed by Robin Gray, I think Jane Howlett will get the second spot. Her ads are pretty good, and being younger and female fits in with the mood for renewal.

    Denison: 2-1-2 with the Libs being on 1. But I’m really only certain about 1-1-1 here, I think who misses out on two is really up in the air.
    Labor’s primary is low, but with three sitting members and the other two with well-known names I think the polls are understating their support. Singh will do well with Green/Wilkie preferences so I tip her over Sturges. While Bartlett is on the nose I think he’ll still get in. For all his faults, he’s got more to contribute that the other Labor candidates and people will grudgingly recongise that at the ballot box. Libs I’ve become convinced that Archer isn’t that likely. She did not poll particularly strongly when elected to the Hobart Council, and the cat-fight at the Taste will not have gone down well, especially when Sandy Bay types (like myself!) already have a lot of candidates to go for. I reckon the second Liberal, if there is one, will be from the northern suburbs, either Lowrie or Branch in that order of probability. The Greens on two is a big call, and maybe it’s a 60/40 chance versus the second Liberal. Burnet has a positive and high profile from being Deputy Mayor on Hobart City Council and the primaries are high enough to justify a second. The thing to watch for is how many Burnet gets in her own right – she needs around 0.6 of a quota in her own right to be able to stay in there long enough. The Greens will get more leakage from other parties than they have in the past, but a lot of that will be wasted by going to O’Connor only who will already be elected with a quota in her own right. If the Green vote is too concentrated in O’Connor, then Burnet won’t get in.

    Franklin: 2-2-1. McKim, Hodgman and Giddings to lead each of the parties in terms of primaries (and maybe in actuality after the poll?!). Second Labour to be O’Byrne; neither Butler or Hulme seem to have made a big impact. Second Lib to be Mulder. The Eastern Shore is 60% of Franklin, so the second Lib should be from there (Hodgman and Petrusma are from Kingborough); and we all love policemen. Petrusma has a high profile but she is also well known for being Family First. This will help her in segments of Kingston in particular, but might not be so good in other areas. If the Greens had run Wendy Heatley as #2 they may have had some chance of two if the polls are to be believed as she polled well on the Eastern Shore in the Pembroke by-election. From what I know, Burling would be a good MP and is more mainstream than some have painted him; but the Eastern Shore is going to respond to an urban professional like Heatley better than a campaigner, as unfair as that characterisation may be.

    So that’s how I get to the ridiculous situation of predicting Labor to win the most seats!

  9. Bass – 2-2-1. I agree that McLean will win the last Labor seat. I would be surprised if Webb came close, I think he’ll probably come fourth of the Labor candidates.

    Braddon – 2-2-1. Agree with Ben on all candidates, though I won’t be counting chickens until their on the board.

    Denison – The most interesting seat for a number of reasons. O’Connor will top the poll with a quota+ in her own right. Bartlett should, but his support is far softer than O’Connor’s or, I would argue, Sturges, who holds a lot of support from Glenorchy, which traditionally pays less interest to politics. I’ll predict that Bartlett will pull about 12-15%. Bacon and Singh could also be in with a shot for a second Labor seat, but despite Sturges Glenorchy grip and the general popularity of Bacon and Singh, I’m giving Labor just one seat. For the Libs, Groom should poll similar to Bartlett, with over 12-15%, but after that I’m going for a big splinter, with lots of leakage to Burnet and Wilkie. This opens up a chance for the second Green (Burnet) or Wilkie if they can poll 6-7% in their own right (Wilkie in particular who can draw preferences from across the spectrum, including O’Connor spillover). As such, in order of election, I’m predicting O’Connor, Bartlett, Groom, and then Burnet and Wilkie, though you could just as easily make that Archer/Branch and Singh.

    I’m predicting that the heroin calls will backfire on Labor, though without pushing the votes to the Greens – more likely to the Libs and Wilkie – and have doubts that both a second Green and Wilkie could get in, but I’m confident that a lot of small l liberals will put Wilkie before Archer and ditto for Singh voters (Sturges voters are more likely to just exhaust). Optimistically I’m predicting 1-1-2-1, but it’s just as likely to be two Labor or two Libs at the expense of Wilkie (who I am therefore giving a 1 in 3 chance). I’m giving the Greens a 60% chance of winning two seats, but it’s far from a foregone conclusion despite the polls.

    Franklin – 2-2-1 with Hodgeman topping the poll and McKim getting a quota+. I don’t think the Greens can win two seats here this time around and am hoping that Petrusma won’t get in, but with the bumbling campaign by Mulder suspect she will now.

    Lyons – 2-2-1, with Butler to miss out. For Labor voters this is an election for the true believers so the old hands should hold on for Labor. I’m putting Howlet as the second Lib for no other reason than that she is the only woman on the Liberal ticket, which should buy her a percent or two. Not a very inspired Lib ticket this time around.

    So, my predicition is a 1/3 chance of 9-9-6-1 and a 1/3 chance of a Lib or Lab getting in instead of Wilkie and thus getting the first chance to try to form a Government, but for my official prediction I’ll stick with the first one. Good luck Andrew!

  10. Ben,

    My predictions include a hedged bet for the 5th seat, but if pushed, Helen Burnet. A responsible and effective coalition / agreement will guarantee the prize of the 6th seat Braddon.

  11. It does however, state that the Greens are on track to win 2 seats in Denison, as are Labor, which would mean that the Lib vote in Hobart must be down. Also suggests that Labor would lose a seat to the Libs in Franklin (2-2-1), Lyons (2-2-1) and Braddon, which would make the last 3-2 Lib by this polling and 10-10-5 overall.

    Not long to go now!

  12. Ben, I reckon the Greens will get one in each seat. I think 10-9-6 is the second most likely, with two Greens in Denison.

    Now, roll on the Victorian predictions – I reckon five MLCs and three MLAs. You heard it here first.

  13. I’m 10-10-5, the greens getting Braddon, but failing to get 2 up in Dennison as some Wilkie preferences leak away. I hope I’m wrong (about Denison, not Braddon).

  14. I don’t know about you guys but I have gotten pretty tired of seeing excellent Greens results in the polls and then see the election day results noticeably lower. I can’ help but think that this is happening again here.

    For a system that seemingly creates some sort of unpredictability in the result, the result I think is going to be pretty straight forward. 10-10-5. One Green in each region.

  15. With the newspoll predicting Lab 35 Lib 36.5 Green 25.5 Other 3.0,

    I’ll throw out there Lab 36 Lib 38 Green 22.5 Other 3.5

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