Just f**king vote already! The US election prediction thread


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With twenty-four hours to go until polls close in the first states in the US election, I thought it was a good time to make predictions and look at the state of the race. The Pollster.com national average has Obama leading McCain by 7% as undecided voters make their choice. Both candidates’ numbers are increasing, but the gap remains solidly in Obama’s favour. Likewise in the key states.

So here is my predicted election map result:

This prediction gives Obama all Kerry states, as well as Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, Missouri, Ohio, Virginia and Florida, for a total of 349 Electoral Votes. I came close to calling North Dakota and North Caroline for Obama, but I decided against it.

With the Senate, my prediction is that Democrats retain all of their seats, and pick up the following Republican seats:

  • Alaska
  • Oregon
  • Colorado
  • New Mexico
  • Minnesota
  • North Carolina
  • Virginia
  • New Hampshire

This produces a total of 57 Democrats, 41 Republicans and 2 Independents. I called Kentucky and Georgia for the Republican incumbents, but those two races will be the most interesting contests to watch tomorrow. If they fall, the Democrats with Bernie Sanders will have the fillibuster-proof majority, and will have defeated the Senate Minority Leader.

So what are your predictions? Post them in the comments below.

I’m going to try and liveblog tomorrow as the results flow in. Check in then for the latest updates.

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  1. Actually my predictions are quite similar to yours.

    For the Presidency, I have the same map as you, but I won’t call Missouri or Ohio for Obama and will call North Carolina. Still an Obama win, and by 5% in the popular vote.

    In the Senate I also predict 57-41-2, but I am betting on the Democrats to lose Minnesota but pick up Georgia.

    In Congress, I expect the Democrats to lose two seats (Tim Mahoney and Nick Lampson) and pick up an extra ~20.

    As an explanation, the reason for my calls is to give an extra 2-3% bounce on the heavily black states due to disproportionate black turn-out throwing off the polling (which is weighted to a lower turn-out), and a -2-3% swing in the rust belt, as rural white working class men are Obama’s weakpoint (and the lack of enthusaism might have been getting them thrown out of the “likely voter” category, but I’m betting they’ll still turn out and vote for McCain). For the House, it is a good year for Democrats so I only predict the losses of Mahoney and Lampson as special cases (sex scandal for Mahoney, and Lampson only getting in last time due to his opponent having to have a write-in).

    Polls open in three hours in New Hampshire.

  2. Jeez, Oz. Care to break that down into states?

    You can use the Race Calculator at Daily Kos election scoreboard or a similar program at RealClearPolitics.

  3. I have to admit, the odds in some states have lengthened and in others have shortened since I first came up with that possibility.

    But I don’t think Obama is a shoe in, I don’t trust American voters and I don’t trust the way they vote. If McCain was going to win it’d be 274.

    North Carolina, Virginia, Montana, Ohio, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Nevada, West Virginia and Colorado. Out of the “tossups” and everything leaning McCain to McCain. I based it off CNN’s electoral map.

    I’m cynical to think those states would vote for Obama.


    There’s my map.

  4. Fair enough. But I can’t imagine after this whole campaign the map ends up looking basically the same, with Obama gaining only Kerry states plus the two Gore states that Kerry lost.

  5. I think in American terms Kerry was far more electable than Obama. But Obama had the great campaign and virtually everything, domestically and internationally, working for him.

    But enough predictions from me, let’s just sit back and watch the results come in.

  6. Obama wins all the Kerry states, plus Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia for a total of 353 to 185 for McCain.

  7. I’m way out the other direction, i say Obama with 390 as i don’t think the polls capture the effect that Obama’s much bigger on the ground operation will have, so i say he’ll get all Kerry states plus Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Missouri, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia and Florida, and miss out in North Dakota, Montana and Arizona.

  8. You predicted it, man. Well done. I didn’t believe it would be that resounding. North Carilina could still prove you wrong, but I will just have been proven so much more wrong.

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