Victoria 2018 – mapping the state

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I have just finished my collection of election data for the Victorian state election.

This collection features the full list of booths with location information, the full list of candidates, primary vote and 2CP voting figures by booth, and voting figures by electorate and region as well.

I’ve been able to use this data (as well as the swing data from Poll Bludger’s excellent results site) to produce a series of maps, the first of which I will be publishing today.

These maps show the two-party-preferred vote by booth for the 77 seats which held Labor vs Coalition booth counts. This includes the 76 seats where those parties came in the top two, plus Benambra where the 2PP count was finished despite the change in the top two in the final distribution.

If you’d like to check out this data, it’s now available for download on my maps page, along with thirteen other collections from recent state and local elections. Older data (including the 2014 Victorian results) are available to Patreon donors.

First, this map shows the two-party-preferred vote by booth for every booth in the 77 seats where we have a 2PP booth count. This excludes six inner-city seats where the count included the Greens, as well as four regional and one suburban seat where an independent made the final count.

You can also toggle that map to show the swings by booth. You’ll see that most areas swung to labor, but there was a particularly strong swing in the inner south-east of Melbourne, where Labor tended to cross 10% on the election-night vote.

I’ll be back tomorrow with more maps created from this dataset.

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17 COMMENTS

  1. Wow, Kudos for making this, Some of the southeast Melbourne electorates look weird seeing all the red booths, But they still end up retained by the Liberals, Just shows the Big booths seem to go more Liberal. Also i have noticed Mildura is empty, Please fix this Ben, Please get the Data if possible, Because im interested about the results in Mildura

  2. Ben excellent work. One word of warning Colour Blindness. I can not see difference between ALP and Greens. I suppose I could be nasty and say well that is the case anyway but I am trying to be helpful. 8% of Males are red green colour blind.

    Is this all manually entered? or does some computer programme magically do the exercise?

  3. Daniel, there was no Labor vs Coalition count in Mildura.

    Andrew, you can’t see green because there is no green on the map. It’s a 2PP map. It’s done using Carto.

  4. How do you make these maps using carto, Is it free? Do you have to have a source code for it? Im interested in making maps from data myself just for experiment

  5. Thanks for the federal electorate overlay Ben. So assuming a similar swing (and possibly even a bigger one at that, given many mentions from Lib candidates that their own voters who begrudgingly voted for them at state level were not going to vote for them at federal level), Dunkley, La Trobe, Corangamite, Deakin would fall, pretty decent chance at Flinders, and some close scenarios in Goldstein, Kooyong and Higgins. Not sure about Aston – it did get very close in 2010, though this year’s state election Rowville didn’t swing much so hard to tell. Would be amazed to see Menzies fall but I doubt that would happen (if it did then I think the whole eastern Melbourne area would be painted red).

  6. Oh forgot about Casey – could be another pickup as well for Labor. Tony Smith as speaker doesn’t seem to draw any real controversy though – a good thing considering his predecessor. Maybe being in that role and any personal vote of his will minimise the expected anti-Lib swing?

  7. Forgot Chisholm as well, while Julia Banks being an independent could throw a bit of a spanner in the works, I’d still favour Labor there.

  8. WL Rowville pretty much repeated history, in the 2002 wipeout, the then seat of Scoresby which largely overlaps current day Rowville was the Liberals only hold in the outer eastern suburbs.

    People are right to point out that during the Howard years that there were large ALP landslides but in those cases the Liberal heartland largely remained comfortable Liberal with only a handful of blue ribbon Liberal seats actually falling.

    Assuming the federal election will see similar numbers and that is possible considering the ALP only needs to gain a few percentage points swing to match the TPP of the state election.

    I would say the ALP will differently win Dunkley, Chisholm, Corrangamite, Deakin, La Trobe with potential gains Higgins, Flinders, Menzies and Casey.

    I doubt the Liberals are that much at risk in Goldstein, and Kooyong could be interesting if the ALP can find a strong candidate.

  9. Melton had localised issues that presented a rather large swing against the ALP, if they can sort out these issues in this term of government then normal voting patterns should in the next election. Smallest ALP margin since the seat was created in 1992 and before that Derrimut (1985-1992) incarnation

  10. I think Higgins has a good chance of falling but is more likely to be a Greens gain than a Labor gain.

    The 3PP results in 2016 were:
    Liberal – 55
    Greens – 28
    Labor – 17

    That’s a significant difference between the Greens & Labor, and while the Greens vote went slightly backwards in Malvern & Oakleigh in November, they had the biggest positive swing in Prahran, so while Labor will likely close that gap a little bit, I think 9% is a lot of ground to make up.

    Just say the Liberal vote at the 3PP stage plunges by 10% (very likely), Labor would really need all of that to go to them, plus a Greens-to-Labor swing on top of that. It will be difficult with a relatively high profile Greens candidate Jason Ball running for a second time against a comparitively unknown Labor candidate running for the first time. Also the Greens are better positioned in the federal election, where the ALP are led by a right-faction leader who also needs to appeal to less progressive NSW & QLD voters and issues like border policy give them a clear point of difference, than in the state election against a popular Labor-Left premier who has spent 4 years implementing the most progressive agenda (including numerous Greens policies) in the state’s history.

    That said… Losing the Greens heartland in Windsor and gaining Murrumbeena/Hughesdale which were dominated by Labor in the November election will definitely contribute to closing the gap a little bit.

    Still my prediction in Higgins would be a 3PP count of roughly 45 LIB, 30 GRN, 25 ALP. The Greens would then need 80% of ALP preferences to win the seat (in Prahran they got just over 81%) so it will be a near 50-50 final result but almost certainly Greens v Liberals.

    I also agree with Pencil that Dunkley, Chisholm, Corrangamite, Deakin and La Trobe will all fall to Labor.

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