Tasmania’s election is coming up this Saturday (check out my guide here!), and two recent polls suggest the campaign has shifted in favour of the Liberal Party.
Saturday’s Reachtel put the Liberal Party in the lead on 48%, followed by Labor on 32% and the Greens on 12.5%.
Today’s EMRS poll put the Liberal Party on 46%, followed by Labor on 34% and the Greens on 12%.
This is a clear trend of the Liberal Party picking up ground while Labor plateaus and the Greens drop.
The Greens have polled at least 15% at every poll until the end of last year, but the last three polls have had them between 12% and 13%. This chart does a good job of showing the recent trend.
Here’s the break down in party voting intentions. @TasLiberal has seen big boost while @TasmanianLabor vote has plateaued. @TasmanianGreens also seen a 5% drop. #politas #tasvotes @WINNews_Tas pic.twitter.com/xmAIUUHv2s
— Ben Hansen (@ben_hansen) February 26, 2018
The campaign has featured a big-spending effort to defeat Labor over their promise to roll back poker machines, and it seems plausible that this has had a strong effect. It’s also possible that voters who would prefer a majority government have judged that the Liberal Party has a better chance of reaching a majority. It’s likely both reasons are contributing to this shift.
If you haven’t had a look at my seat guide, I’d encourage you to take a look. There’s a page for each electorate, with local history, geography, results maps and results tables that can help you better understand each contest.