QLD election eve prediction thread

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Polls will open in 25 hours in Queensland and the comments threads have been lighting up here with people discussing each electorate.

In particular there have been a few people posting their predictions on each seat guide.

So I thought I would resurrect an old tradition and create a thread for people to post their predictions of what will happen tomorrow.

I won’t try to be exact with my prediction (never a good idea to predict before votes start reporting) but I’ll give some general thoughts:

  • One Nation will win seats, and poll very well for a minor party, but won’t do as well in votes or seats as in their peak in 1998. Possible the polls are overstating their support and they will drop to the low teens.
  • I don’t think we will see either party in a strong enough position to confidently declare victory early in the night.
  • There is a high chance of a hung parliament but it’s still quite likely that the result will be a majority government, or a hung parliament where only one major party has a viable path to government.

I’ll have a piece in the Guardian tomorrow morning laying out what to expect on the night. Tomorrow evening there’ll be an open thread here, and I might contribute occasionally, but I’ll also be contributed to the Guardian’s liveblog, so I’ll just see how much capacity I have to do both. You’re welcome to join in the conversation in the comments.

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40 COMMENTS

  1. My thoughts:

    Greens to win in South Brisbane and poll well, but still 3rd in McConnell and Maiwar.
    One Nation to win approximately 5 seats (Thuringowa, Lockyer, Ipswich West , Calliope, and Gympie being their best shots)
    KAP to retain two seats.

    Labor to win LNP seats in the South East, but lose seats in the regions, with a hung parliament at the end of it.

    My prediction: Labor minority government

  2. Hi Ben
    i have lived in the Maryborough electorate since 1975, i watched the previous incarnation of PHON , i agree with your synopsis, as the indi i have attended all candidate forums and the absence of orange tee shirts has been obvious , of course Bruce has had a red shirted fan club. Feed back i am receiving from punters who spoke with me , is that James is tainted due to being a Councillor of the debarcle of the fraser coast issues of accountability. It could be James Achilles heeI , my veteran journo contacts tell me that the LNP vote is crashing, i predict that it might be close but ALP will keep Maryborough, just. cheers roger

  3. Thanks Ben for your good work. Going to be glued to the TV tonight. I well remember the last one, those great big swings. Think it will be more muted this time, but have fingers crossed for Annastacia to get over the line.

  4. The unusual three cornered contest makes this a particularly difficult election to predict. I think Labor will make ground in the south-east and hold ground in the regions. One Nation will win a handful seats, though precisely which ones is a matter of guesswork.

    My starting point is the previous election results on the redistributed boundaries (i.e. ignoring the turncoats in Buderim, Cairns and Cook.)

    Labor will hold its notionals, Mansfield and Mount Ommaney, regain Pumicestone, and add Aspley, Bonney, Chatsworth, Everton, Gaven, Glass House, Maiwar and Redlands.

    One Nation gains Burdekin, Callide, Gympie, Hinchinbrook, Lockyer, Maryborough, Nanango and Scenic Rim.

    LNP gains Nicklin.

    KAP gains Hill.

    I think that comes out as ALP 55 LNP 28 ONP 8 KAP 2.

  5. @David Walsh, I can’t see anyway Labor wins Pumicestone or Everton? And internal polling doesn’t show anyway either. Other than that, I like your analogy.

  6. Hi David, I think your prediction is very brave and ambitious – but I like it. I suspect Anastasia will fall over the line into majority government by one seat, after taking damage in northern and central Queensland but making up for it in south east Queensland. ONP likely to take from LNP two, three or four seats. LNP likely to pay a price for not distancing themselves more thoroughly from suggesting a deal with ONP to form Government. Note I am not brave enough to name seats, but David, do you really think a seat like Aspley could fall to Labor? I know it has before, but that surely had more to do with a “big Labor high tide” which happened when Peter Beattie was leader, and only happens very, very rarely for Labor.

    Make sure you vote peoples,

    Mark.

  7. Trying to figure out how One Nation (sic) will go is virtually impossible. I’m not privy to enough preference info to make certain predictions but there are a few key factors to consider.

    1. Seats they won in 1998

    2. Federal areas in Central and North which swung against LNP (protest type vote)

    3. Regional areas with high unemployment and therefore disillusionment

    4. Areas which voted against Same Sex Marriage or were well below the 60% average (fits into the anti-political correctness line)

    Given that a lot of One Nation (sic) voters also mistrust the media and the establishment, many will lie or be ‘uncertain’ when asked of voting intentions by pollsters.

  8. Tomorrow is a very important day for Queensland as a state. The 2 major parties are so opposite on policies. One wants to help all people with programs that have worked since the last election. The other wants to get rid of the program plus slash and burn. Then we’ve got ON which look like will pick some seats up especially up north. So it will be an interesting day and evening tomorrow.

  9. @Feel the Bern. The comments are up now. How long did you wait before re-posting? It’s possible the new cache (installed for Saturday night) is causing a brief delay.

  10. I think that the majors primary will drop more than the polls. Labor will only have seats in South East Corner and lose all of these everywhere else bar Cook. I have Labor gaining Toowoomba North on the back of One Nation Preferences.

    My final tally has:

    ALP – 36
    LNP – 35
    ONP – 13 (Lockyer, Bundaberg, Maryborough, Thuringowa, Ipswich West, Ipswich, Gympie, Callide, Keppel, Glass House, Buderim, Logan, Scenic Rim)
    KAP – 4 (Condamine, Hinchinbrook, Hill, Traeger)
    GRN – 2 (Maiwar, South Brisbane)
    IND – 3 (Noosa, MacAlister, Southern Downs)

    With ONP forming government with the LNP unless ALP changes their leader.

  11. I’m calling:

    Labor gains: They will “notionally” hold Mansfield and Mount Ommaney. They will also win back Cairns and Cook. I also have them gaining Apsley, Bonney, Glass House, Redlands and Whitsunday.

    LNP gains: Will “notionally” hold Pumicestone. Will win back Buderim. Have them gaining Bundaberg, Mudingburra, Nicklin and Townsville.

    One Nation gains: Might change because of the new poll having them at 12% rather than 18% but have them picking up Buderkin, Callide, Hinchinbrook, Ipswich West, Keppel, Lockyer and Maryborough.

    Greens gains: Have them picking up Maiwar and (despite my predictions yesterday) South Brisbane.

    So 45-37-7-2-2. Hard to say who’d win parliament on those numbers – Labor?

  12. This will end up incorrect, but here goes nothing.

    I have LNP on 48 and Labor on 37. That includes Labor gains of Whitsunday and Redlands offsetting losses of Miller, Mansfield, Springwood, Pumicestone, Burdekin, Townsville, Mundingburra, Mirani and Barron River to the LNP. LNP also pick up Nicklin. Mt Ommaney is in the Labor column to start with and they retain it. I also believe Pine Rivers might be in play but kept it in the Labor column.

    One Nation 5 (Thuringowa, Ipswich West, Keppel, Maryborough, Hinchinbrook)

    Katter holds their two seats and Independent takes Noosa.

    In the last 48 hours I’ve lost my confidence about Miller and Mansfield but still have them in the LNP column. Plus I think Burdekin is a toss up between LNP and One Nation. Maryborough and Keppel a toss up between Labor and One Nation.

    If today’s poll is right about the south east and Labor picks up seats look at Toowoomba North, Aspley, Caloundra, Glasshouse, Bonney, Gaven and Maiwar.

    If One Nation does better than I expect throw in Bundaberg, Gympie, Lockyer, Callide and even Nanango and Logan as chances for them.

  13. Roger … One Nation (sic) will win Maryborough because the LNP are running dead and will finish third and virtually all their preferences will go to ON.

    My reasons for thinking they’re running dead?

    1. Didn’t have a candidate until 2 weeks after the election was announced.

    2. ON candidate is a classic old style Country Party guy who could easily switch to the LNP on a whim after the election.

    3. Nicholls have been campaigning a lot in Bundy and Hervey Bay but hasn’t wasted time and effort in Maryborough.

  14. My prediction:

    LNP retains all seats where it is the incumbent and gains Pumicestone, McConnel, Ferny Grove, Miller, Nicklin, Ninderry, Buderim and Bonney.

    ON wins Ipswich West and Maryborough (though I’m not as confident about the latter after hearing other comments).

    Trad retains South Brisbane.

    As such, LNP majority with 49 seats.
    I suppose I can’t really disguise what I want the outcome to be.

  15. Side note: If Labor do make gains in SEQ, I think Mansfield is more likely than Mt Ommaney.

    And Redcliffe is a roughie for an LNP gain.

  16. My call:

    ALP increases their primary vote but will be concentrated in the safe seats in suburban Brisbane and will win 43 seats. They will gain Chatsworth, Gavan, Glass House and Redlands back from the LNP as well as Cairns off Rob Pyne who I can see at most polling 15-18% of the vote.

    LNP win 39 seats and gain Pumicestone on preferences from minors as well as Mundingburra, Mt Ommaney, Mirani and Bundaburg, and ~just~ hold off one Nation in Maryborough.

    One Nation: Will poll I predict 14% of the vote, however I expect that some of their earlier support will evaporate towards Katter and to an extent back to the ALP. That being said I predict PHON to win Burdekin, Burnett, Ipswich West, Lockyer, Thuringowa and Whitsunday.

    Katter will poll well, increasing their statewide primary to be 4%. The party will hold Traegar and pick up Hill, as well as win Warrego.

    The Greens primary vote across the state will grow, especially in major regional cities and in the inner city of Brisbane. For different reasons I see the Greens chances of winning Sth Brisbane and Maiwar equal, and believe the Greens will pick up both with the party to fall short in McConnel and an increase in the 2CP in Noosa.

  17. Hi all,
    My prediction ALP 50 LNP 37 PHON 3 Kat 3
    ALP to pick up in SE/Goldie but lose in C/N Qld
    Notables- Maiwar ALP, Greens close but no cigar in Sth Bris,

  18. I see only net losses for the LNP at this election.

    Prediction : Labor Majority Govt of 6 with reduced LNP and some ONP (who will split quickly).

    The LNP might gain Nicklin; it has many seats that were held last time by tiny margins and these are all vulnerable.

    Greens 0 – 1 seats, probably 0. Maiwar is their best shot and that would be a major loss to the LNP. South Brisbane is out of their reach.

    LNP will probably lose Glasshouse, Redlands, Gaven, Chatsworth, Bonney and maybe Pumicestone. If there is any swing on then Currumbin and Aspley are in the mix. Mansfield and Mt Ommaney are both notional ALP and I expect both to hold.

    So that is a Metropolitan South East gain of up to 10 seats for the ALP.

    There are lots of reasons for this but One Nation chaos pretty high among them. Nicholls being a dud campaigner also factors into the mix plus this stable government has its supporters.

    LNP should gain Nicklin with Peter Wellington’s retirement, but this is one of the ALPs better chances in the Sunshine Coast area.

    One Nation could get about 5 seats but won’t get Ipswich or Ipswich West. Don’t believe the Logan hype. LNP will hold Nanango but watch for other previously safe conservative seats to be vulnerable to One Nation attacks from the right. ONP’s best chances all come from the Lockyer, Gympie, Scenic rim are most likely.

    LNP could lose Hinchinbrook on One Nation preferences to the ALP.

    It could be a long, slow count for Bundaberg, Burdekin, Maryborough and Mirani. These are difficult for the ALP to hold all of them but it could. The Townsville region is doing it very tough and that will make it a scrappy affair, but there aren’t enough seats here to change the overall outcome.

    Far North Qld
    ALP to hold/gain the 4 seats.

  19. Labor picks up more in the Southeast than they lose in the regions.

    I think it will be profoundly bad for LNP in Brisbane. Tim Nicholls loses his seat, and Moggill goes to preferences; that bad. However they pick up Pumicestone and Buderim.

    Greens do very well and pick up Maiwar and possibly Moggill. Greens come 1st in South Brisbane but LNP preferences save Trad. 2nd in McConnel with LNP preferences saving Trad.

    Rob Pyne retains Cairns.

    Labor majority government.

  20. I think ON are going to do much better than the experts are predicting, not 1996 well, but maybe 10 or so seats. LNP/ON government, or possibly even LNP/ON/KAP if LNP + ON find themselves short a seat or two.

  21. Looking north of Cape Palmerston:

    Labor regains Cook and Cairns.
    The Katters hold on to Tragear and Hill.
    LNP wins Townsville and Mundingburra, and regains (notionally) Burdekin.
    PHON wins Thuringowa.
    The incumbents hold on in Barron River, Mulgrave, Hinchinbrook, Mackay and Mirani.
    Whitsunday…who knows, really.

    ALP 6
    LNP 4
    KAP 2
    PHON 1
    plus Whitsunday

    Probably the best case scenario for Palaszczuk and ALP
    Worst case is that Barron River and Mirani go to LNP.
    Either way, losing all three seats in Townsville (four if one counts Burdekin) could – with results elsewhere – see a change of government.

  22. I’m going to go against all the minor party excitement.

    ALP 49, LNP 40, PHON 2, KAP 2, GRN 0, IND 0.

    I’m not convinced PHON can beat the LNP on primaries by enough to win any of the seats in which the ALP will finish 3rd. Best chances maybe Thuringowa and Maryborough.

  23. interesting…………… but I think a majority Labor Govt……. onp will be lucky to win 6 seats………. kap 2…….. don’t think onp will win any Ipswich or Brisbane seats. All parties except kap will drop seats. …….. the difference between Alp 49 and Alp 56 is really nothing……. Keppel. Maryborough, Bundaberg, Miranai…….. will not all be lost by Labor it is possible they can retain them all. Liberal seats on a margin of up to 4% will all be in play.Maiwar possible green win……. they won’t win any seats from labor

  24. Predict Labor Majority Govt:
    ALP – 36% (50 seats)
    LNP – 34% (38)
    ONP – 14% (3)
    GRN – 10% (-)
    KAT – 2% (2)
    Other – 4% (-)
    ALP 53%-LNP 47% (or possibly 52.5/47.5)
    GRN – outside chance in Maiwar (probably fall short in South Brisbane). If Grn win in Maiwar, ALP tally falls to 49 seats.

  25. It all about One Nation, even though in the end I think they will win only Maryborough. They would have won Thuringowa and probably Logan but the LNP has very strangely put the ALP ahead in 2 of their 3 most winnable ALP seats. I suspect the main parties have done a deal whereby LNP will preference the ALP in these two and in return the ALP will ensure their HTV cards are widely distributed in the seats where the LNP is under threat. I believe the strongest ON threats to the LNP are in Callide, Nanango, Burnett, Hinchinbrook, Lockyer and Gympie. But this deal puts paid to that. They will need to be at least 10% ahead of the LNP on primaries to have any chance.

    Aside from those listed above, seats to watch for ON will necesesarily be ALP held. They would include Bundaberg, Ipswich West, Keppel, Mirani, Mulgrave, Kurwongbah and Pumicestone where ON will or might manage to come ahead of the LNP and gain access to their preferences. Apart from the first two, these are outside chances though.

    Primary vote = 13%. Given that they are not running in 32 electorates I’d add about 35% which would therefore indicate around 17-18% overall, well down on 1998 when they had 22.7% and 25% adjusted for uncontested seats.

    The ALP have been the main beneficiaries of the ON decisions on preferences:

    http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/73944/WHOLE-OF-STATE-PAULINE-HANSONS-ONE-NATION-1.pdf

    Its argued that ON can’t deliver on their preferences, but surely both main parties will ensure ON has sufficient ‘volunteers’ to cover the electorates where they benefit. This will be a big factor in most of the ALP gains.

    ALP Gains: Whitsunday, Toowoomba North, Glasshouse, Redlands, Bonney + Burdekin, Mansfield, Mt Ommaney (notational ALP)

    ALP Losses: Maryborough (ONP), Bundaberg (LNP), Mundingburra (LNP)

    That gives the ALP 50, KAP 2, ON 1, LNP 40. I think the ALP will wind up with a couple more than this as there are still more, vulnerable seats on the LNP side…Pumicestone, Everton, Aspley, Gaven, Theodore, Maiwar.

    The Greens will not win South Brisbane, they actually have better chances in both Maiwar and Brisbane Central. Hetty Johnston could be an upset in Macallister.

  26. Condamine is the shock going Kaps way and also look at Logan ON and Capalba is looking interesting but vote dropping

  27. Condamine is the shock going Kaps way and also look at Logan ON and Capalaba is looking interesting but vote dropping

  28. Don’t know QLD electorates well enough to predict anything.
    i do feel that PHON will do much better than is thought, because of the “shy voter syndrome” as Michael Kroger puts it. I just don’t think that a lot PHON votes run around saying what their true allegiance , or voting intentions are.

  29. In an electorate alp 30 onp 28 lnp 27 gr 5 and various independents 8…..== who wins? Who is in the final 2? That is the problem

  30. WA result for PHON counts fairly strongly against the shy voter syndrome. The other factor that needs to be counted in is the extensive surge in enrolment of young people prior to the ME postal survey.

  31. The shy voter syndrome might be more relevant if it was OPV but with compulsory preferences One Nation is finished. The LNP preference deal was really quite lopsided (but still agreed to, in true ON style) and honestly I think the most likely outcome is zero seats for One Nation. Maybe one if they are lucky.

    Let’s not start on the Greens. Again in true style, they get nothing because they were too busy putting their money into the hyped up contests rather than the ones they had something resembling a chance.

  32. I’ve arrived at an ALP majority government, based on the faulty premise that people would want stable govt not a complete circus.

    ALP 48
    LNP 39
    Katter 4
    Green 1
    One Nation 1

  33. My prediction is that Labor will sneak over the line, they should gain Redlands, Aspley, Everton, Mansfield, Gaven, Bonney, Glasshouse and maybe even Toowoomba North, this should be enough to offset losses in Central and North Qld.
    At this point the I’d give the Greens Maiwar, although I’d still back Trad in South Brisbane, whilst having a significant swing in McConnel whilst finishing third again and probably finishing third in Noosa with a less prolific campaign compared to the last two elections.

  34. I predict the following because the world’s view on
    what constitutes democracy has changed .
    Germany~ France~Italy~ the UK have multiple parties in coalition .
    New zealand has just ousted the incumbents.
    One nation i have been told is only running in those seats that they believe
    that the incumbents are doing a bad job. They have cross preferenced with KAP.
    ONE NATION 25 plus seats
    KAP 6 plus seats
    Independents 4 plus seats
    Labor showing better than LNP
    LNP showing in trouble.

    DEALS WILL BE DONE WITH ONE NATION & WHOEVER TO FORM A MAJORITY GOVERNMENT WITH ONE NATION & KAP CALLING THE SHOTS.

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