It’s much easier to summarise a New Zealand election than in a country like Australia, Canada or the UK where the election is dependent on particular seats and regions.
Overall the result was 60 National, 34 Labour, 13 Green, 8 New Zealand First, 3 Maori, and one each for Mana, ACT and United Future.
This has been spun as a landslide victory for National but I’m not so sure. National will definitely form the next government, but their position is possibly weaker.
The Nationals only gained two seats, but their close allies ACT fell four seats while their less-close allies the Maori Party fell two. Altogether, including Peter Dunne, National allies fell from 11 seats to 5. So once you factor in National’s increase in two seats, the parties currently in government have fallen from 69 seats at the beginning of the last parliament to 65.
The more dramatic result has been for Labour. Labour has dropped almost 7% in their party vote and lost 9 of their seats, but most of this loss has gone to other minor parties. The Greens have gained four seats, while New Zealand First has returned to Parliament with eight.
It will be interesting to see how National can work with New Zealand First. John Key went on the warpath against Winston Peters in 2008 and helped push the party below 5%. On the other hand, NZ First has plenty of conservative tendencies and would prove a more stable ally than the remnants of National’s previous partners, at least on the seat numbers.
In the end, National’s strategy of keeping ACT alive barely helped them, but it did have a small impact. If National had won Epsom, ACT would have lost the seat and wouldn’t have qualified for any list seats. However, National would have lost one of their list seats and that list seat would have gone to the party that came closest to winning a seat, which in this case is NZ First.
The victory for National would have been far bigger if it weren’t for the surge for New Zealand First. If New Zealand First hadn’t reached the quota (and ignoring the hypothetical of where those NZ First voters may have gone instead), then National would have gained five of the eight NZF seats, with Labour gaining two and the Greens gaining one. This would have given National a solid governing majority.
Good wrap up and coverage, I am wondering what about the Special votes, and the impact of possibly electing a 14th MP for the Greens who happen to be Deaf. Any commentary/coverage on that?
@Anton,
All I can say is that currently the 14th Greens candidate is coming 122nd in the race, with National winning the 120th seat and the 9th NZ First candidate coming 121st.
Usually the Greens do well on special votes and National does poorly, I don’t know how NZF do. It is certainly possible.
Have they found out who won Christchurch Central yet?
The final figures have been released. The National Party have dropped to 59 seats, and the Greens have picked up an extra seat for Mojo Mathers, taking them to 14.
Comments are closed.