Scarborough – WA 2021

LIB 5.8%

Incumbent MP
Liza Harvey, since 2008.

Geography
Northern Perth. Scarborough covers the suburbs of Scarborough, Doubleview, Innaloo, Trigg and parts of Gwelup and Karrinyup, near the coast in the inner north of Perth. The entire seat is contained in the City of Stirling.

Redistribution
Scarborough shifted north, losing the southern half of Doubleview and a small part of Scarborough to Churchlands, and gaining part of North Beach and the remainder of Gwelup from Carine. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 5.6% to 5.8%.

History
Scarborough was created in its current form at the 2008 election. A seat named Scarborough previously existed as a marginal seat from 1974 to 1996.

The previous seat was held by the Liberals from 1974 to 1983, then the ALP from 1983 to 1989, and again by the Liberal Party from 1989 to 1996.

The new seat was created with a notional Liberal margin of 2.6%. Liberal candidate Liza Harvey was elected with a 2.6% swing. Harvey was elevated to the ministry in 2012. She was re-elected in 2013, and became deputy premier in February 2016.

Harvey was re-elected in Scarborough in 2017, but her party was tipped out of office. She served as Liberal leader from June 2019 to November 2020.

Candidates

  • Dave Vos (Independent)
  • Liza Harvey (Liberal)
  • SP Becker (Greens)
  • Johnny Boccardi (Waxit)
  • Troy Coward (Western Australia Party)
  • Stuart Aubrey (Labor)
  • Daniel John Bridgewater (Flux / Liberals for Climate)
  • Vanya Markovina (No Mandatory Vaccination)

Assessment
Scarborough is a traditional safe Liberal seat, but if Labor does as well as some polls have predicted, Harvey could lose this seat.

2017 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Liza Harvey Liberal 10,82947.6-14.247.8
Tony Walker Labor 6,66829.3+4.829.7
Judith Cullity Greens 3,31114.6+3.413.6
Margaret DoddOne Nation9104.0+4.04.3
Kevin HostAustralian Christians4301.9-0.51.9
Dan BaileyMicro Business3071.4+1.41.4
Steven PyntMatheson for WA2781.2+1.21.2
Informal 9303.9

2017 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Liza Harvey Liberal 12,62955.6-11.755.8
Tony Walker Labor 10,10044.4+11.744.2

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three parts: east, north-west and south-west.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, with 50.7% in the east and closer to 55% in the north-west and south-west.

The Greens came third on the primary vote, with a vote ranging from 12.8% in the east to 18.5% in the south-west.

Voter groupGRN prim %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
North-West14.354.94,96621.5
East12.850.73,75816.2
South-West18.554.63,49415.1
Pre-poll11.259.83,24114.0
Other votes12.557.67,69233.2

Election results in Scarborough at the 2017 WA state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

7 COMMENTS

  1. I’m surprised this seat hasn’t received more attention on this site. If I recall correctly, one of the reasons Harvey stood aside from the leadership was to focus more on defending her electorate, which says quite a bit about the internal optimism, or lack thereof, in the WA Liberals.

    I anticipate a few of those booths in the low 50s will turn light red, whether that’s enough to see the electorate change hands is beyond me, though I honestly doubt it.

  2. I don’t believe the October 2020 poll that had Labor winning 66-34 here. Still the combination of Labor actually trying and Liza Harvey now a has-been, plus the election wide factors suggest to me that Labor will actually win here.

  3. What exactly is it about Scarborough that makes it less blue than Churchlands to the south or Carine to the north? While still a Liberal leaning seat, it’s not completely beyond possibility to fall if the Labor vote is really as high as some think it might be

    Still predict a Liberal retain though

  4. Scarborough has very dense housing for perth standards. There is a lot of infilling and subdivision which tends to make it more affordable (therefore younger) than Carine/Churchlands. I think the seat is in play but I don’t think labor will commit any resources in to trying to win it. If the swing is massive it will fall though, Liza Harvey didn’t do any favours for herself pushing for open borders.

  5. From my own personal observations Labor are campaigning pretty strongly here. Aubrey has been making a strong effort since late last year to boost his profile in the electorate, and I think he has the potential to be successful, Harvey seems to be relying more on her existing status.

    It’s a standard “I have experience” vs “It’s time for change” type race.

    I’m going to retract my initial call of it being a marginal Liberal hold, and say Labor will gain this. I based my initial prediction on the fact I really underestimated how much the personal approval of McGowan would translate into votes, but the last few polls and a few more conversations with friends/family in this seat and ones around it has really swung me the other way.

  6. DemocracySausage: Scarborough (the suburb) is full of backpackers and nightclubs, and Innaloo has one of Perth’s biggest shopping centres – they’re not really old-money suburbs. Further east, Osborne Park is industrial – that part of Scarborough Beach Rd is full of car dealerships and furniture shops.

    Anywhere further north along the coast is where the mortgage belt used to be in decades gone by: the kids moved out and boomers who paid $10,000 for a house are sitting on a pot of gold, which is why Carine is so Liberal. Anywhere much further south is of course the golden triangle (Churchlands, Cottesloe, Nedlands). Scarborough is the less Liberal patch in between – if Labor ever win a coastal seat between Fremantle and Joondalup, this’ll be it. (Or Hillarys, depending how it’s drawn.)

    The 90’s seat of Innaloo was similar to Scaborough, but further east – it had Balcatta in it. That started out as Liberal, then went Labor under Gallop in 2001.

  7. On the 2017 results this looks a typical Melbourne Eastern suburbs paper marginal. Close on the TPP but with a Liberal vote far too strong for Labor to overcome on preferences.

    But then, Labor did go ahead and win Bayswater, Ringwood and (heaven forfend) Hawthorn in 2018.

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