East Metropolitan – WA 2021

Incumbent MLCs

  • Tim Clifford (Greens), since 2017.
  • Alanna Clohesy (Labor), since 2013.
  • Donna Faragher (Liberal), since 2005.
  • Samantha Rowe (Labor), since 2013.
  • Charles Smith (Western Australia Party), since 2017.1
  • Matthew Swinbourn (Labor), since 2017.

1 Charles Smith was elected as a member of One Nation in 2017. He resigned from One Nation in June 2019 and joined the Western Australia Party in May 2020.

Geography

ElectorateMarginElectorateMarginElectorateMargin
ArmadaleALP 25.2%KalamundaALP 2.4%Mount LawleyALP 4.0%
BassendeanALP 21.7%MaylandsALP 17.9%Swan HillsALP 11.9%
BelmontALP 11.4%MidlandALP 12.8%ThornlieALP 15.8%
Darling RangeLIB 3.5%MirrabookaALP 23.5%West SwanALP 19.2%
ForrestfieldALP 9.4%MorleyALP 12.5%

The East Metropolitan region covers the eastern third of the Perth metropolitan area.

Labor holds thirteen seats in this region, while the Liberal Party holds just one.

You can click through to individual seat profiles on the table above or on the map below.

Redistribution
The region’s eastern, northern and southern boundaries remained the same. The western boundary was changed slightly in the south-west, with a small area shifting from Darling Range to Baldivis in South Metropolitan region. Changes were more significant in the north-west, around the seats of Mirrabooka and West Swan.

Changes to most seats in the region were relatively minor.

History
East Metropolitan was created as a five-member electorate in 1989.

The ALP won three seats and the Liberal Party won two in 1989. This breakdown was the result at four of the five elections from 1989 to 2005. In 1996, the ALP lost their third seat to the Democrats, before regaining the seat in 2001.

In 2008, East Metropolitan gained a sixth seat, which was won by the Liberal Party. The Greens won a seat for the first time off the ALP. The 2008 election was the first time that the Liberal Party won more seats than Labor in the East.

In 2013, Labor regained their third seat at the expense of the Greens, while the Liberal Party held their three seats.

The 2017 election saw Labor retain their three seats, while the Greens and One Nation both won seats off the Liberal Party, reducing the Liberals to just one seat – their worst result in the history of the region.

2017 result

GroupVotes%SwingQuotaSeatsRedist %Redist q.
Labor 155,70746.58.33.2554346.83.2744
Liberal 83,54725.0-21.91.7467124.81.7357
Greens 29,8108.90.70.623218.90.6215
One Nation26,8748.08.00.561917.90.5561
Australian Christians8,2922.5-0.20.173402.50.1749
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers6,8362.00.40.142902.00.1421
Animal Justice4,8741.51.50.101901.50.1017
Liberal Democrats3,4641.01.00.072401.00.0722
Family First3,3611.01.00.070301.00.0713
Others12,0513.60.251903.60.2500
Informal10,0362.9

Labor’s first three candidates were elected on primary votes, along with the first Liberal.

Let’s fast forward to the last eleven candidates running for the last two seats:

  • Alyssa Hayden (LIB) – 0.748 quotas
  • Tim Clifford (GRN) – 0.629
  • Charles Smith (ON) – 0.565
  • Thomas French (ALP) – 0.255
  • Jamie Van Burgel (CHR) – 0.222
  • Paul Pitaro (SFP) – 0.145
  • John Watt (FFWA) – 0.127
  • Talia Raphaely (AJP) – 0.104
  • Neil Hamilton (LDP) – 0.074
  • Simon Geddes (FF) – 0.072
  • Michael Zakrzewski (DSP) – 0.058

Preferences from the Daylight Saving Party flowed mostly to Fluoride Free WA:

  • Hayden (LIB) – 0.751
  • Clifford (GRN) – 0.631
  • Smith (ON) – 0.565
  • French (ALP) – 0.256
  • Van Burgel (CHR) – 0.222
  • Watt (FFWA) – 0.177
  • Pitaro (SFP) – 0.145
  • Raphaely (AJP) – 0.105
  • Hamilton (LDP) – 0.075
  • Geddes (FF) – 0.072

Family First preferences flowed the same way:

  • Hayden (LIB) – 0.751
  • Clifford (GRN) – 0.631
  • Smith (ON) – 0.565
  • French (ALP) – 0.256
  • Watt (FFWA) – 0.244
  • Van Burgel (CHR) – 0.224
  • Pitaro (SFP) – 0.146
  • Raphaely (AJP) – 0.105
  • Hamilton (LDP) – 0.076

The Liberal Democrats also boosted Fluoride Free:

  • Hayden (LIB) – 0.753
  • Clifford (GRN) – 0.632
  • Smith (ON) – 0.566
  • Watt (FFWA) – 0.314
  • French (ALP) – 0.256
  • Van Burgel (CHR) – 0.224
  • Pitaro (SFP) – 0.147
  • Raphaely (AJP) – 0.106

Animal Justice preferences also boosted Fluoride Free:

  • Hayden (LIB) – 0.753
  • Clifford (GRN) – 0.637
  • Smith (ON) – 0.567
  • Watt (FFWA) – 0.409
  • French (ALP) – 0.258
  • Van Burgel (CHR) – 0.225
  • Pitaro (SFP) – 0.148

Shooters and Fishers preferences boosted the Australian Christians candidate:

  • Hayden (LIB) – 0.755
  • Clifford (GRN) – 0.638
  • Smith (ON) – 0.572
  • Watt (FFWA) – 0.411
  • Van Burgel (CHR) – 0.361
  • French (ALP) – 0.261

Labor preferences boosted the Greens into the lead:

  • Clifford (GRN) – 0.887
  • Hayden (LIB) – 0.758
  • Smith (ON) – 0.575
  • Watt (FFWA) – 0.412
  • Van Burgel (CHR) – 0.364

A majority of Christians preferences went to Fluoride Free, but it wasn’t quite enough to keep Watt in the count.

  • Clifford (GRN) – 0.890
  • Hayden (LIB) – 0.767
  • Smith (ON) – 0.716
  • Watt (FFWA) – 0.624

Preferences from Fluoride Free pushed both the Greens and One Nation over quota, with the Liberal Party missing out.

  • Clifford (GRN) – 1.034
  • Smith (ON) – 1.007
  • Hayden (LIB) – 0.906

Candidates

  • A – David Wayne Larsen (Independent)
  • B – Brian Walker (Legalise Cannabis)
  • C – Lidia Skorokhod (Health Australia)
  • D – Trevor Ruwoldt (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
  • E – Benny Tilbury (Great Australian Party)
  • F – James McManus (Daylight Saving Party)
  • G – Labor
    1. Alanna Clohesy
    2. Samantha Rowe
    3. Matthew Swinbourn
    4. Lorna Harper
    5. Robert Green
    6. John Keogh
  • H – Dale Grillo (One Nation)
  • I – Patricia Ayre (No Mandatory Vaccination)
  • J – Satinder Samra (Waxit)
  • K – Marilyn Lottering (Flux / Liberals for Climate)
  • L – Amanda Dorn (Animal Justice)
  • M – Craig Buchanan (Liberal Democrats)
  • N – Maryka Groenewald (Australian Christians)
  • O – Liberal
    1. Donna Faragher
    2. Phil Twiss
    3. Greg Halls
    4. Daniel Newman
    5. Jeremy Quinn
  • P – Tim Clifford (Greens)
  • Q – Nicole Watts (Sustainable Australia)
  • R – Charles Smith (Western Australia Party)
  • S – Hayley Doan (Independent)
  • T – Peter Lyndon-James (Independent)

Preferences
Labor preferenced the Greens second, followed by the parties in the micro-party alliance.

The Liberal Party preferenced the Australian Christians second, followed by independent Lyndon-James, the Western Australian Party, the Shooters, the Liberal Democrats and One Nation.

The micro-party alliance are consistently preferencing the Western Australian Party second.

The Greens preferenced Animal Justice, Legalise Cannabis, Labor and then the micro-party alliance, with all other groups behind the Liberal Party.

Assessment
The first two Labor seats and the first Liberal seat are safe. The third Labor seat is probably going to stay with Labor unless there is a big decline in their vote.

This is the most marginal Greens seat in the state and their hold on the seat will be touch and go.

One Nation’s vote, if it remains steady, may be enough to regain their seat, but there’s a good chance the One Nation vote does drop and that seat will likely be up for grabs for one of the major parties, with the Liberal Party in with a good chance of regaining their second seat.

Charles Smith’s Western Australian Party has done relatively well from preferences and he could get elected if he can stay in the count long enough.

Regional breakdown
Labor topped the poll, with the Labor vote ranging from 33.9% in Kalamunda to 58.1% in Mirrabooka.

The Liberal primary vote ranged from 14.8% in Armadale to 36.2% in Mount Lawley.

The Greens primary vote ranged from 5.7% in West Swan to 17.7% in Maylands.

One Nation’s primary vote ranged from 4.2% in Mount Lawley to 11.8% in Swan Hills.

Results of the 2017 WA upper house election in the East Metropolitan region, by 2021 electorate

4 COMMENTS

  1. My personal feeling/prediction:

    ALP wins the top three MLC spots however the third elected candidate would win after preference distribution

    Donna Faragher retains her seat for Liberals but if the Liberal vote collapses further she will be forced to preferences (unlikely).

    Greens hold onto their seat, with Maylands, Kalamunda, Mt Lawley having a high enough Green vote to re-elect Tim Clifford.

    The last spot is a tossup between Labor, Liberals and minor party that would benefit from preference harvesting.

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