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Bit of a seat of interest to me, as it’s the seat I live in. Jacqui Scruby has had some wins for local issues in the 1 year and 1 week (at the time I’m writing this) she’s been in parliament, with critical funding for Mona Vale Road being allocated, as well as the announcement this week of the Northern Beaches Hospital set to be bought back by the government.
However, she was elected last year in… interesting circumstances. Resignation of a sitting member, charged with alleged sex crimes, and in a seat he won by one of the narrower margins that year. Neither Labor nor the Greens ran in the by-election, and she was able to sweep up most of their votes. Preference leakage was a big factor in her 606 vote loss in 2023, and I’m not sure how she’d go in a general election.
I suppose one thing that could sway the result one way or the other is if we get a verdict on that case before March 2027.
If she is a good mp she will consolidate.
A swing to Labor overall will have the same effect. Was Mr Ammoun a poor choice for the liberals….again opv helps the liberals
The local Liberals apparently raised concerns about Amon (this was before the sexual abuse cases were brought to light), and Rob Stokes was keen on having a woman preselected for the seat. Amon was still pre-selected, and received a glowing endorsement from some in the Liberals, and other individuals within the community.
I think the last State election was 45% Liberal, 36% Scruby, 10% Labor, and 7% Greens. Then it was a 50.66% 2CP to the Liberals. OPV may hinder Scruby’s chances, however if the Liberal primary vote drops further she should be able to win. Not much wiggle room for the Liberals as it is.
Scruby got over half the primary votes at the by-election. It was off the back of Rory Amon’s departure and charges coming to light and Labor and Greens abstaining. If she can get a sophomore surge and get Labor and Greens voters to tactically vote for her (or send her their preferences) then she’d easily retain. She only narrowly missed out in 2023.