LIB 2.6% vs IND
Incumbent MP
Tim James, since 2022.
Geography
Lower North Shore of Sydney. The seat covers all of the City of Willoughby and small parts of North Sydney local government area. The seat covers the suburbs of Chatswood, Willoughby, Middle Cove, Northbridge, Naremburn, Crows Nest, Castle Cove, Cammeray and parts of Lane Cove North, St Leonards and Gore Hill.
History
The seat of Willoughby was first created in 1894. It was abolished for three elections in the 1920s and again for the 1988 election, but has existed at every other election. The seat has been dominated by the Liberal Party and its predecessors, but is much less safe than it once was.
The seat was won in 1927 by Edward Sanders, an independent Nationalist. He joined the Nationalist Party and then the United Australia Party, and held the seat until his death in 1943.
The 1943 by-election was won by George Brain. He held the seat until his retirement in 1968.
Laurie McGinty won Willoughby for the Liberal Party in 1968. He served as a minister from 1973 to 1976. McGinty was defeated for preselection in 1978 by Nick Greiner. McGinty ran as an independent, and directed preferences to the ALP. The seat was won by Labor candidate Eddie Britt.
Britt was defeated in 1981 by the Liberal Party’s Peter Collins. He was re-elected in 1984. In 1988, Willoughby was renamed “Middle Harbour”, and Collins won the renamed seat. He became a minister following the 1988 election, moving up in the ranks to become Treasurer in 1993. In 1991, Middle Harbour was renamed Willoughby again.
When the Coalition lost power in 1995, Collins was elected Leader of the Opposition. He did not lead his party to an election, being replaced by Kerry Chikarovski in December 1998. He was re-elected to Willoughby in 1999 and retired in 2003.
Willoughby was won in 2003 by Gladys Berejiklian. She defeated independent Willoughby mayor Pat Reilly by only 144 votes. She was re-elected in 2007, 2011 and 2015.
Berejiklian became Transport Minister when the Coalition took power in 2011. She became deputy Liberal leader in 2014, and Treasurer in 2015.
Berejiklian became Premier and Liberal leader in January 2017. She led the government to a third term in 2019 and continued in her role until October 2021, when she resigned after the announcement of an ICAC inquiry.
The 2022 Willoughby by-election was won by Liberal candidate Tim James. James won a full term in 2023.
Assessment
This section will be filled in closer to the election.
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Tim James | Liberal | 23,032 | 43.6 | -13.4 |
Larissa Penn | Independent | 14,064 | 26.6 | +17.6 |
Sarah Griffin | Labor | 10,577 | 20.0 | +5.3 |
Edmund McGrath | Greens | 4,190 | 7.9 | -3.4 |
Michael Want | Sustainable Australia | 967 | 1.8 | +0.1 |
Informal | 1,014 | 1.9 |
2023 two-candidate-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Tim James | Liberal | 24,727 | 52.6 | |
Larissa Penn | Independent | 22,277 | 47.4 |
2023 two-party-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Tim James | Liberal | 26,152 | 55.9 | -14.8 |
Sarah Griffin | Labor | 20,665 | 44.1 | +14.8 |
Booths in Willoughby have been split into three parts: north-east, south-east and west.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in the west (50.5%) and north-east (52.3%), while Larissa Penn won 53% in the south-east.
Labor came third, with a primary vote ranging from 16.6% in the north-east to 24.2% in the west.
Voter group | ALP prim % | LIB 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
South-East | 18.3 | 47.0 | 11,826 | 22.4 |
West | 24.2 | 50.5 | 8,135 | 15.4 |
North-East | 16.6 | 52.3 | 7,806 | 14.8 |
Pre-poll | 19.6 | 54.2 | 13,705 | 25.9 |
Other votes | 21.6 | 58.8 | 11,358 | 21.5 |
Election results in Willoughby at the 2023 NSW state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Liberal vs Independent), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, independent candidate Larissa Penn and Labor.
Just did a marathon redistribution of wlfs state numbers obviously the redistribution is 4 years away but I abolished Newtown in exchange for new seat around the pennant hills