ALP 3.0%
Incumbent MP
Sally Quinnell, since 2023.
Geography
Southwestern Sydney. The seat of Camden covers southern parts of the Camden local government area, including the suburbs of Camden, Narellan, Bickley Vale, Cobbitty, Currans Hill, Elderslie, Gledswood Hills, Gregory Hills, Harrington Park and Mount Annan, as well as Camden Park in Wollondilly Shire.
History
The electoral district of Camden has existed for two different periods: from 1859 to 1920, and again since 1981.
The original district elected two MLAs from 1859 to 1889, and then three MLAs from 1889 to 1894. It continued as a single-member district from 1894 until its abolition in 1920.
Throughout that period Camden never elected a Labor MP, and was won by a variety of Protectionist and Free Trade MPs, becoming a safe Liberal/Nationalist seat by the time of its abolition.
Camden was restored at the 1981 state election, by which time Camden had become part of the fringes of the rapidly-expanding Sydney metropolitan region. Many of the most populous suburbs in the seat today developed throughout the 1980s and 1990s.
The latter seat of Camden has an unusual history of changing parties against the trend of state politics, on two occasions it was gained by a party while losing a state election, and on two other occasions a governing party gained the seat while losing ground statewide.
Camden was won in 1981 by Ralph Brading of the ALP, gaining power in a Labor landslide. In 1984 he was defeated by the Liberal Party’s John Fahey.
The original seat of Camden covered an area from Warragamba to Mittagong, and the redistribution before the 1988 election reduced the seat to a smaller area around Camden itself. The new redistribution was much improved for the ALP.
Following the redistribution, Fahey moved to the neighbouring seat of Southern Highlands. Fahey became a minister in the Greiner government in 1988. He went on to serve as Liberal premier from 1992 to 1995, and then resigning to contest the federal seat of Macarthur. He held Macarthur from 1996 to 2001, serving as Minister for Finance in the first two terms of the Howard government.
In 1988, while the Labor Party was suffering a massive defeat statewide, Peter Primrose managed to gain the seat of Camden, defeating Liberal candidate John Ryan by only 31 votes. Ryan went on to serve as a Liberal member of the Legislative Council from 1991 to 2007.
Primrose only held Camden for one term, losing in 1991 to the Liberal Party’s Liz Kernohan. Another redistribution had expanded Camden to cover most of Wollondilly Shire, a shape it maintained until the 2003 election. Primrose was elected to the Legislative Council in 1996 and now serves as a minister in the Labor government.
Kernohan was a former Mayor of Camden, and she held Camden for three terms, retiring in 2003. She then returned to Camden Council in 2004, but died only seven months later.
Camden was won in 2003 by the Mayor of Camden, Geoff Corrigan, who was running for the ALP. Corrigan was re-elected in 2007. His margin in 2003 had been 5.4%, which expanded to 8.7% in the redistribution, with parts of the seat in Wollondilly Shire removed from Camden. He held on with a reduced 3.9% margin.
In 2011, Corrigan lost his seat with a 22.8% swing, and the Liberal Party’s Chris Patterson was elected. Patterson was re-elected in 2015, and retired in 2019.
Liberal candidate Peter Sidgreaves won Camden in 2019. Sidgreaves held the seat for just one term, and lost to Labor’s Sally Quinnell in 2023.
Assessment
This section will be filled in closer to the election.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Sally Quinnell | Labor | 21,945 | 40.6 | +11.2 |
| Peter Sidgreaves | Liberal | 19,686 | 36.4 | -5.7 |
| Garry Dollin | One Nation | 7,437 | 13.8 | +0.4 |
| Emily Rivera | Greens | 3,136 | 5.8 | +1.7 |
| Jessie Bijok | Sustainable Australia | 1,868 | 3.5 | +2.2 |
| Informal | 2,056 | 3.7 |
2023 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Sally Quinnell | Labor | 25,060 | 53.0 | +10.3 |
| Peter Sidgreaves | Liberal | 22,222 | 47.0 | -10.3 |
Booths in Camden have been split into three parts:
- North – Cobbitty, Gregory Hills and Harrington Park
- South-East – Currans Hill, Elderslie, Mount Annan and Narellan
- South-West – Camden, Camden South and Spring Farm
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 52.2% in the north to 58.5% in the south-east.
One Nation came third, with a primary vote ranging from 13.2% in the north to 14.2% in the south-east.
| Voter group | ON prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 14.2 | 58.5 | 10,714 | 19.8 |
| North | 13.2 | 52.2 | 8,392 | 15.5 |
| South-West | 13.6 | 54.9 | 7,338 | 13.6 |
| Pre-poll | 14.4 | 50.6 | 20,085 | 37.1 |
| Other votes | 12.2 | 50.6 | 7,543 | 13.9 |
Election results in Camden at the 2023 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and One Nation.
This is a seat that I don’t live in to but am a regular visitor. I have personally met Sally Quinnell and she is definitely more approachable and friendly than Peter Sidgreaves was, something I feel was a factor in his defeat in 2023.
Camden is absolutely a toss-up: the federal results were quite strong for the Liberals, though Labor put virtually no effort into Hume which likely explains the margin, contrasting Sally Quinnell’s popularity and the fact Labor will put effort into here to defend a marginal seat means it could go any way. It also hinges on the Liberal candidate: if it’s a strong, well-known candidate, then I’d give them the advantage. In contrast, if it’s an unknown, generic candidate, then Sally should be fine in retaining, but it could be close.
I think if ON continue to pursue this part of Sydney it remains very difficult for the Liberals to win