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Has Hannon done anything wrong here to not be massive fav to retain here?
The result here definitely hinges on the Liberal campaign and if they can put up a competent candidate/campaign. Last time around they had Nathaniel Smith who was a parachute first of all, and a really poor MP, especially with the comments about water privatisation. This seat was very easily holdable for the Libs in 2023 but turned into a really embarrassing loss for them, and I think Judy was able to appear credible enough to the electorate.
I haven’t heard anything about her current term in Parliament and any sort of controversy, so I’d say for now she’s inoffensive to the electorate and should be fine unless the Liberals have a formidable candidate ready to go. That’s when things become interesting.
20w7 might be make or break. I reckon the redistribution will remove Bowral and mittagong
This seat could become a 4-way contest – ONP have a strong underlying vote and favourable demographics, the sitting IND is to my knowledge not seen as left-leaning and presumably has built up a strong local appeal, the Liberals are likely to go backwards but I imagine they’ll be looking to win this one back, and Labor could somehow be competitive if their vote held up