Pakenham – Victoria 2022

ALP 2.0%

Incumbent MP
Brad Battin, member for Gembrook since 2010.

Geography
Pakenham covers western parts of the Cardinia council area, including Pakenham and Officer.

Redistribution
Pakenham is a new seat carved out of parts of Bass and Gembrook. Pakenham was previously contained in Bass, while Officer and Pakenham Upper were in Gembrook. About 54% of electors in Pakenham were previously included in Gembrook. Pakenham has a larger share of Gembrook than any other seat, but that makes up just over half of the new seat.

History
The electoral district of Pakenham previously existed from 1992 until 2002, during which time it was held by Liberal MP Rob Maclellan. Maclellan retired in 2002, when Pakenham was abolished.

The seats of Bass and Gembrook were created in 2002.

Bass was held by the Liberal Party’s Ken Smith from 2002 until 2014. Smith served as Speaker from 2010 until 2014, when he retired.

Bass was won in 2014 by Liberal candidate Brian Paynter. Paynter lost after one term in 2018 to Labor candidate Jordan Crugnale.

Labor’s Tammy Lobato won Gembrook in 2002, and held the seat until 2010.

Lobato lost Gembrook to Liberal candidate Brad Battin in 2010, and he has been re-elected twice.

Candidates

  • Emma Vulin (Labor)
  • Assessment
    Pakenham is a very marginal seat, and the absence of a sitting MP makes it an open race that could go either way.

    2018 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
    Michael Galea Labor 18,06541.1+10.544.1
    Brad Battin Liberal 21,20248.3-6.443.5
    Amy Gregorovich Greens 4,66710.6+2.27.9
    Others4.4
    Informal2,5755.5+0.3

    2018 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
    Michael Galea Labor 21,62149.2+8.252.0
    Brad Battin Liberal 22,31350.8-8.248.0

    Booth breakdown

    Booths have been divided into three areas. The populated centre of the seat has been split between Lakeside and Pakenham, while the spare northern booths have been grouped.

    Labor won a clear majority on election day in Pakenham and Lakeside while the Liberal Party won comfortably in the north. Labor narrowly won the special votes, which reduced the Labor margin relative to their election day result.

    Voter groupALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
    Pakenham57.45,48915.1
    Lakeside56.24,62712.7
    North40.57532.1
    Other votes50.317,33847.7
    Pre-poll50.58,17022.5

    Election results in Pakenham at the 2018 Victorian state election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.

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    12 COMMENTS

    1. Agree Bob, this seat is mortgage belt and service delivery is a critical issue here. I wonder if Jordan Crugnale will contest here instead of Bass.

    2. She lives in Inverloch, which is in Bass, but I would imagine they would want her to run here instead as she has the advantage of incumbency.

    3. Jordan Crugnale has a very high profile in the South Gippsland region and she was the mayor of Bass Coast. Running in Bass would give the ALP the best chance to win Bass.

    4. The 7.9% redistributed is due to a weak Greens campaign in Bass, Greens will get around 11-14% in the state seat. They achieved in Officer (Fed) about 12-14%, swing of 3%, and Pakenham got about 12-15.6% (Fed) with 2-8% swings.

      Three important notes re La Trobe results, unlike the Fed Labor candidate the State candidate lives in the local area, secondly unlike the Fed Liberal MP, an incumbent of 20 years, the Liberal candidate will almost definitely be a first time candidate for any level of government, and third the Federal Liberal was a Government MP able to promise money, and this advantage will be for State Labor this election. I wouldn’t look too far into the Federal results.

      I’m predicting a very close contest, no favourites in this contest, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a strong vote for Independent/s or other parties.

    5. @E23 All governments promise money regardless whether they’re in power or not. It’s a new seat so Labor won’t have an incumbent either.

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