Hastings – Victoria 2022

ALP 0.01%

Incumbent MP
Neale Burgess (Liberal), since 2006.

Geography
South-eastern fringe of Melbourne, including the western shore of Western Port. The seat covers Hastings, Somerville, Langwarrin and French Island, in the City of Frankston, and Mornington Peninsula Shire.

Redistribution
Hastings shifted to the south-west, losing Pearcedale, Warneet, Blind Bight and Tooradin to Bass and gaining Balnarring from Nepean. These changes changed the Liberal margin of 1.1% to a Labor margin of 0.01%. Hastings previously covered parts of the Casey council area, but these areas were all moved to Bass.

History
The electoral district of Hastings was created in 2002. At the time it was considered to have a notional Liberal margin of 7.3%, but was won in 2002 by the ALP candidate, Rosy Buchanan, who won the seat with 50.85% of the vote.

In 2006, a small swing to the Liberal Party saw Buchanan defeated by Neale Burgess. Burgess has been re-elected three times, barely holding on in 2018.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Neale Burgess is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Hastings is a very marginal seat. The 2018 election was a landslide for Labor but it’s not yet clear if the Liberal Party can claw back this seat.

2018 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Neale Burgess Liberal 20,36146.3-4.944.8
Simon Meyer Labor 16,91638.5+7.038.5
Nathan Lesslie Greens 3,8118.7+1.210.3
Georgia KnightAnimal Justice2,8806.6+6.66.2
Others0.1
Informal2,6915.8-0.1

2018 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Simon Meyer Labor 21,51648.9+6.650.01
Neale Burgess Liberal 22,45251.1-6.649.99

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three areas: north, central and south.

The Labor Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two areas: north (52.7%) and south (54.2%), while the Liberal Party polled 52.2% in the centre and also won the other votes.

The Greens came third, with over 15% in the south and about 8.5% in the centre and north.

Voter groupGRN prim %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
North8.452.78,09219.9
Central8.547.86,51316.0
South15.654.25,29113.0
Pre-poll9.848.114,48735.6
Other votes11.152.16,30415.5

Election results in Hastings at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.

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13 COMMENTS

  1. This seat will be interesting as Labor has preselected actor from Strictly Ballroom Paul Mercurio. Yes, some will play the celebrity candidate card but Mercurio is a locally based councilor these days. The Liberals have preselected Briony Hutton a executive officer of the lobby group Committee for Mornington Peninsula.

    The Liberals have no chance of government if they don’t retain this seat. And you would think they would be favorites as the crushing Labor result last election is the reason this seat is so marginal. But statewide polling has had the Liberals going back even further. And with Mercurio being so high profile and no incumbent this seat is far from being decided.

  2. The LNP really should not have any issue holding here but if the current polling stays true then they will be in serious trouble here.

  3. The seat will be won or lost in Langwarrin. The Township of Hastings itself is quite industrial and Labor leaning. The Rural areas in the centre of the electoral are Liberal leaning so it will be the bellwether area of Langwarrin to determine the fate of the seat.

  4. Labor could do with improving and winning in Somerville if they are to win this unless they get swings to them in Langwarrin.

    Another seat that the Bracks government lost in 2006 that has been trending to the right, although the new boundaries make it less so, and isn’t the same seat as it was in 2006.

  5. Nimalan,
    Langwarrin is in the Federal seat of Dunkley which saw Labor hold those booths, although we shouldn’t read too much into it as if you look at Victoria in 2010 where Labor did really well federally but lost in the state election in 2010.

  6. Agree, Bob, This is not an indication of what may happen at a federal level. I dont know too much about Langwarrin but looking at the census results it seems to be very middle income and has a high proportion of tradespeople maybe it is similar to Montrose, Mount Evelyn. etc in Casey?

  7. Given the Liberals held Flinders comfortably, I think they will gain Hastings and Nepean.
    But this is all I think they will gain.

    Maybe Hawthorn, just maybe.
    I’ll consider Ripon a chance too, given incumbency.

    As an outsider, it looks to be shaping as a dark day for the Libs in November. I hope I am wrong.
    Nats to do ok though.

  8. The 2 Mornington Peninsula seats are narrowly Labor..I think there is sitting Labor mp in one but not the other. These are ultra marginal. I can’t pick but the liberals are not sure of victory.. the irony is they should be . Flinders vote in 2022 does not mean much.. but Flinders is not the safe liberal seat it once was

  9. Flinders and Nepean are highly likely Liberal gains, these are seats that Labor has never held except for once after the Bracks landslide in 2002. I can’t see any solid reason as to why these would be retained?
    If any seat in the state was the most likely to be gained by the Liberals it would be Nepean or Hastings.

  10. I actually agree with BJA for once, but I’ll add Pakenham to his Liberal gains. The coalition preformed very strongly in the La Trobe region at the federal election which is Pakenham. They got swings to them in La Trobe but not in Monash which is strange.

    As I said in Nepean this is still 50/50 but I’d tilt this to the Liberals due to anti-lockdown and the results in Flinders federally.

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