Albert Park – Victoria 2022

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  1. Fishermans Bend is due to have a social housing put in with rest being turned into high rises, this should benefit the ALP here & help the Greens here as well.

  2. It’s interesting that the Greens have seemed to underperform in Albert Park compared to Macnamara; especially since Prahran is right next door.

    Martin Foley being a high profile incumbent has probably aided Labor in Albert Park. Being promoted to Health Minister during the pandemic has really elevated his profile since the last election too, but it will be interesting to see whether that’s a net positive or negative for him.

    In any case, huge Greens swings across these suburbs in Macnamara only 6 months prior to the state election should give the Greens some momentum going into this campaign. If they can achieve similar swings and get the Greens’ primary back into at least the low to mid 20s, they should set themselves up well to make it a more marginal contest in 2026 as part of a two-election strategy.

  3. The Greens performed abysmally at the last state election. If their support rebounds to the same level as at the last federal election, that’ll amount to a huge swing in many seats including this one.

  4. Every question time, most opposition questions are directed to Foley, and they’re always about someone who called for an ambulance or presented at an emergency ward but had to wait an unacceptable length of time.

    His answer is always the same. He begins with the same emotionless prelude, and he speaks seemingly as slowly as he can, sometimes even stuttering despite how many times he’s repeated it: “I thank the honourable member for his question, and while I am not briefed on the particular set of circumstances put forward by the honourable member, I am happy to follow up if the honourable member provides them to me. But what I can say is our health system has faced a one in one hundred year pandemic…”

    Every question. Every question time.

    He seems like he just doesn’t care. I’m not saying he doesn’t, but if he does, he really doesn’t show it.

  5. They won’t lose this seat to the Libs, maybe to the Greens but Labor would be favoured to retain. Maybe in 2010 or 2014 the Libs would’ve gained if Foley was retiring then. Certainly not now though. This is an area that’s probably the most hostile to the direction of the state Libs in the entire state.

  6. I don’t think there’s any chance the Greens could win this time because the swing required is just way too big.

    Labor’s primary vote in 2018 was 43% and the Greens only 16%. Labor really need to collapse to closer to 30% for the Greens to win and I think that’s just a bit too much of an ask.

    I do agree though that the Greens will improve dramatically. I think Labor’s vote will fall back to the mid-30s, the Liberals will probably hover around 30%, and the Greens could very possibly get a dramatic swing into the mid-20s, but that would still be a comfortable Labor win.

    Greens will probably put more resources into Richmond and Northcote, and holding Prahran (where they will no doubt improve their vote but the very real possibility of it becoming a Greens v Labor 2CP will make it tougher to hold).

  7. @Trent Agreed the margin is too much for the Greens to overcome. They will improve here in this election though and will looking to make up as much ground as possible to target it in 2026.


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