IND 26.3% vs LIB
Incumbent MP
Dan Cregan, since 2018.
Geography
Regional South Australia. Kavel covers areas to the east of Adelaide, with most of the seat lying in the Adelaide Hills, as well as the town of Mount Barker.
Redistribution
Kavel contracted, losing Balhannah, Forest Range and Lenswood to Heysen. These changes slightly increased Cregan’s margin from 25.4% to 26.3%.
History
The electorate of Kavel has existed since the 1970 election. The seat has always been won by the Liberal Party.
Roger Goldsworthy won Kavel in 1970. Goldsworthy served as Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party from 1975 to 1982, first as Deputy Leader of the Opposition, and then from 1979 as Premier.
Goldsworthy was re-elected seven times, and resigned in 1992 to provide an opportunity for John Olsen to return to the state Parliament.
Olsen had been first elected to the House of Assembly as Member for Rocky River in 1979. Olsen was elected Liberal leader following the party’s defeat at the 1982 election, defeating his rival Dean Brown. He moved to the new seat of Custance in 1985, after Rocky River was abolished.
Olsen led the Liberal Party to defeat at the 1985 and 1989 elections, and in 1990 resigned from Parliament to run for the Senate at the 1990 election.
Olsen served barely two years in the Senate, before he resigned to run for the 1992 Kavel by-election. On the same day, Dean Brown returned to Parliament at the Alexandra by-election. Brown defeated Olsen for the Liberal leadership.
Brown led the Liberal Party to victory at the 1993 election, and became Premier. Olsen faced Brown for a third leadership ballot in 1996, and won the leadership, and became Premier.
Olsen led the Liberal Party to narrow victory at the 1997 election. In 2001, he was forced to resign as Premier due to the Motorola affair. He retired at the 2002 state election.
Mark Goldsworthy, son of former MP Roger Goldsworthy, won the seat of Kavel in 2002. He was re-elected in 2006, 2010 and 2014.
Goldsworthy retired in 2018, and was succeeded by the Liberal Party’s Dan Cregan. Cregan resigned from the Liberal Party in late 2021 to sit as an independent. Cregan won re-election in 2022.
Candidates
Sitting independent MP Dan Cregan is not running for re-election.
- Padma Chaplin (Animal Justice)
- David Leach (Labor)
- Christiaan Loch (One Nation)
- Bradley Orr (Liberal)
- Matt Schultz (Independent)
Assessment
Sitting MP Cregan has endorsed Matt Schultz, and that makes him a front-runner. The weak polling for the Liberal Party would also help Schultz’s campaign. It is always fraught for a sitting independent MP to try to hand the seat over to a successor.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Dan Cregan | Independent | 12,199 | 50.5 | +50.5 | 50.9 |
| Rowan Mumford | Liberal | 5,036 | 20.8 | -26.4 | 20.0 |
| Glen Dallimore | Labor | 3,458 | 14.3 | -1.7 | 14.7 |
| Melanie Selwood | Greens | 1,978 | 8.2 | -1.0 | 8.1 |
| Gayle Allwood | One Nation | 894 | 3.7 | +3.7 | 3.7 |
| Padma Chaplin | Animal Justice | 599 | 2.5 | -0.3 | 2.5 |
| Informal | 625 | 2.5 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Dan Cregan | Independent | 18,231 | 75.4 | 76.3 | |
| Rowan Mumford | Liberal | 5,933 | 24.6 | 23.7 |
Booths have been divided into three parts: Mount Barker, central and north.
Independent MP Dan Cregan easily won the two-candidate-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 73.7% in the north to 83.8% in the centre.
Labor came third, with a primary vote ranging from 12.3% in the north to 16.2% in Mount Barker.
| Voter group | ALP prim | IND 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Mount Barker | 16.2 | 77.1 | 7,109 | 32.3 |
| North | 12.3 | 73.7 | 2,824 | 12.8 |
| Central | 12.8 | 83.8 | 2,450 | 11.1 |
| Other votes | 14.9 | 74.6 | 9,630 | 43.7 |
Election results in Kavel at the 2022 South Australian state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes and primary votes for independent candidate Dan Cregan, the Liberal Party and Labor.
Liberals have preselected Bradley Orr, an electrician and councillor on Mount Barker District Council.
Dan Cregan has endorsed Matt Schultz, an independent candidate who is President of the Mount Barker Football Club.
I can see a three-cornered contest here: Liberals and Schultz, but also Labor on the basis of strong state-wide polling and the demographic changes here. My prediction for now is an IND Gain but nothing is certain and I think Labor also has a good shot here.
Not certain lib or independent win
This was announced a while ago, however, Labor have recruited the Mayor of Mount Barker District Council, David Leach, as their candidate for Kavel.
I’d say for now, Labor gain, but I do think it could end up as a three-cornered contest between Labor, the Liberals and Matt Schultz.