Bragg – SA 2026

The opinion polling at state level is disastrous for the Liberals and I think Bragg is in danger. Bragg swung strongly to Labor in the 2022 SA & federal elections and the 2025 federal election. If the results were replicated in Bragg on federal results, Labor would hold it by 1%. On state level, assuming a uniform swing.
– 2022 result: 54.3% ALP
– 2022 by-election result: 56.8% ALP

Additionally, a rough calculation of results in the Voice Referendum had this seat barely voting No, but it was very close (I wasn’t able to get full results for a few reasons).

Obviously things can change, plus Labor may not bother to target here and Jack Batty may blunt the swing with a sophomore surge, but nonetheless if Labor won Bragg then every Liberal member in the seat’s history (and probably many others) would be absolutely convulsing seeing if that came to fruition. I myself would be absolutely shell-shocked if that happened.

James, based on current polling it appears that the next SA election would be an inverse of the 1993 landslide which saw state Labor reduced to just 10 seats.

@Yoh An – absolutely. I read that the Liberals could be reduced to a 2021 WA-like showing of just 2 seats, Chaffey and Flinders (barring an independent challenger). Bragg is the safest in Adelaide so there is a thin chance Jack Batty may hang on but judging on federal moods I feel he is gone. The Liberals would also lose seats like Schubert on this swing which will be absolutely shocking.

Agree James, already the Liberals are at a relatively low point with 16 seats (similar to their holdings post the 2006 mini landslide under Mike Rann where they held 15). It is like WA as Mark McGowan won a substantial victory in 2017 (41 out of 59 seats) then improved again with a further swing and total wipeout in 2021.

@James @Yoh An if the polls are right this is gone and Adelaide will be entirely red.

It has been quite common for Labor leaders to win an election as the opposition leader by a small margin and then get re-elected the following election with a thumping landslide e.g. Mike Rann, Bob Carr, Peter Beattie, Dan Andrews, Steve Bracks. Peter Malinauskas and Mark McGowan won government with sizable majorities for their first term.

Labor has already announced candidates for some Liberal seats with lower margins but I don’t see one for Bragg yet.

@Votante but then it’s also common for them to lose in landslides, e.g. Kristina Keneally (2011, NSW), Paul Henderson (2012, NT), Anna Bligh (2012, QLD) and most recently Eva Lawler (2024, NT). Of those all of them also lost traditionally safe Labor seats and really changed the political landscape even if it was just temporarily or barely (in NSW it changed a lot whereas in Queensland all that changed was Labor couldn’t get Gold Coast voters anymore, and in the NT in 2016 everything was reversed from 2012).

@Yoh An – small correction, Liberals are at 13 seats. It was 16 at the 2022 by lost two by-elections to ALP and Nick McBride become an independent. That’s how dire things are for Libs in SA right now.

As for Bragg, I can see the Libs holding on. If the polling as it is, then Morialta and Unley are definitely written off (retiring incumbents). Libs may pick-up, however, Frome if Geoff Brock should he choose to retire. As for Kavel, you would think that would revert back to Libs with Dan Cregan retiring but with the polls above, could be a surprise ALP gain.

*edit Stuart not Frome. Geoff moved seats due to redistribution on the previous election (2022).

If Brock retires in Stuart, Anita Kuss could replace him – she won the corresponding booths in Grey federally last month. Otherwise it’s a probable Labor gain.

Kavel has a surprisingly small margin for the former seat of Tom Playford. Mt Barker becoming an outer suburb of Adelaide might be driving that.

(For Kavel I’m talking about the notional Lib 2pp, not Dan Cregan’s actual margin.)

Votante, one example of a Liberal Premier who won a narrow majority initially before winning a more substantial victory in the following election was Colin Barnett in WA. In 2008, he and the Liberals took office with a narrow majority but then won more comfortably in 2013.

@NP
Yes. Labor has lost government in landslides.

This century, the biggest thrashing of the Liberals at a change of government election was in NT in 2016. This is followed by WA in 2017 and SA in 2022.

@Yoh An, other than the WA example you mentioned, it’s more common for a first-term Liberal government to lose seats, often substantially.

Ted Ballieu won narrowly in 2010 but lost Victorian Liberals lost narrowly in 2014 they did not see their small majority blow out in 2014. Between 1955-1982 and the 1992 and 1996 elections the Liberals won a majority and actually never once needed the Nationals while in 2010 they only 1 seat majority and needed the Nats

I’m not sure what will happen in this seat to be honest. The margins (2022 and 2022 by-election) based off of the federal swings were calculated with Labor winning quite comfortably but at the state level Labor doesn’t seem to be showing any enthusiasm here: this is the only Adelaide seat that Labor hasn’t announced a candidate for and I wouldn’t be surprised if it was a token candidate here chosen due to the background of this seat.

I’d say for now Bragg leans Liberal especially if Jack Batty can get a sophomore surge to blunt the swing but honestly I would be watching here closely. And I certainly wouldn’t write off a Labor victory though it appears unlikely at the moment.

Probably agree James

In line with my earlier post in Hartley discussing Vincent tarzias campaign as no pushover unlike zak kirkup in wa where he surrendered well in advance of the 2021 state election, I can see the sa Liberals barely retaining Bragg as their only urban seat out of a handful they will end up holding post the 2026 election.

Probably a hot take but I think things are improving for the Liberals in SA but it’s still not great. Labor haven’t made enough mistakes to criticise.

@Nether Portal – how can you tell? Interested to know why you’d say that

Without polls nothing is confirmed but it seemed to me the SA Liberals are still in the doldrums, WA Liberals on the other hand are going to be competitive in 2029 it seems

Maxim pe ding a redistribution i think the lib nat in wa can get close to winning but will probly fall. Short. They could probly win all the regional seats bar kimberley. I say they will finish in a competitive enough state to win govt in 2033. There’s a possibility they could snatch it in 2029. There’s also the ephemeral factor that could way on them. Labor will likely win the 2028 federal election and any problems federally could way on the state election.

Libs should be hoping they retain this so they can have at least 1 Adelaide Metro seat and Jack Batty could be leader post election. Otherwise they will just have regional MPs and in a state where 79% of the population lives in Greater Adeaide they simply cannot appeal and be an opposition.

@Nimalan, not only that but being wiped out of the capital city makes it harder to be effective. Jack Batty can drive an hour or less to the other side of Adelaide and campaign whereas regional MPs will have to drive longer, especially if they’re outside the Adelaide Hills or the Barossa Valley.

Funny everyone’s talking about how things are improving for the SA Libs today, given that a new poll has come out (from DemoAU, therefore a bit more pro-Liberal than others) and I’ll let everyone make their own judgments on this.

https://www.indailysa.com.au/news/just-in/2025/10/21/top-pollies-seat-in-doubt-in-exclusive-pre-election-polling

Agree Nether Portal
I dont think many regional seats will be gained by Labor (they only have one currently). I think only Ngadjuri will change hands with Tony Piccolo standing for Labor. I also dont think Hammond will change hands despite its low margin. As you correct Regional MP will have longer commute so Jack Batty should campaign hard to retain his seat and prepare for leadership and rebuilding should he retain his seat.

@Tommo9, ironically I saw the poll a few hours after I commented about the Liberals being in a better situation.

To be fair, SA being a small state has pretty inconsistent polling (not to the extent of Tassie, the ACT or the NT though). The last poll before this one was the May YouGov poll. The results were practically the same, just in the October Demos poll the Labor and Greens votes when down 1% each and One Nation wasn’t an option. The Labor TPP in October is 66% (still extraordinarily high but technically lower than in May when it was 67%).

The biggest takeaway I see in the poll is the fact that the Liberals are getting 13% of the primary vote by people 18-34. That has to bother somebody.

I don’t think this will maintain, but I think there’s no chance this won’t be SA Labor’s biggest ever landslide and has a real chance of surpassing the Liberal performance in 1993 as the biggest landslide in any SA election.

If winning <40% of the TPP doesn't show Alex Antic how toxic his politics are (particularly in a state this urban dominated) then I doubt anything will.

Scart this has nothing to do with Alex antic. Sa labor is popular. They have a co petent premier. They are delivering on surpluses and services. I do enjoy going to adelaide and visiting this state. Libs have had problems with leaders and policies. This is entirely state driven.

@John I agree Mali would still be winning as he’s easily the most competent Labor premier in the country, but Alex Antic’s faction still controls the SA Liberals.

This has heaps to do with Alex Antic and his style of politics which is dragging the Liberals away from the actual issues that matter (and could be attacking Mali/Labor on) but are instead trying to ram abortion law reforms and whatnon through the upper house it’s ridiculous, SA could easily become a 3 party state if a XEN style movement appeared again. Libs will be wiped from Adelaide but will win a few rural seats

Maxim – at the height of Nick Xenophon’s popularity leading the Centre Alliance/SA-BEST party I thought that it would be a reincarnation of the Australian Democrats, a centrist type of party that was dominant in South Australia with most of its leaders (like Steele Hall and Janine Haines) hailing from the state.

SA like Victoria being a progressive leaning state is better suited to the small ‘l’ or moderate/wet faction of the Liberals rather than the hardcore, Christian right faction.

SA is more just heavily metropolitan rather than ‘progressive’ I’d say

Fair point Maxim, although I would say that there is a correlation between how urban a state is vs how conservative it leans.

I would say Queensland is the most conservative state in Australia because of its diverse population (I believe less than 2/3rds of the population lives in the state capital Brisbane compared to figures of 70-80% for the other states). This is due to urban areas generally being more diverse (greater proportion of CALD minorities) and also being focused on white collar, service-based industries with more tertiary educated voters.

Also, SA like Victoria lacks a significant number of primary industries (with only Agriculture being dominant in the state and a declining mining sector).

Lib retain short of alp landslide