Elder – SA 2022

LIB 2.1%

Incumbent MP
Carolyn Power, since 2018.

Geography
South-Western Adelaide. Elder covers the suburbs of Colonel Light Gardens, Melrose Park, Mitchell Park, Clovelly Park, Panorama, Pasadena, Clarence Park, Clarence Gardens and St Marys.

Redistribution
Elder shifted to the north-west, losing Clapham and Lower Mitcham to Waite and Hawthorn to Unley, and gaining Clarence Park, Clarence Gardens, and parts of Edwardstown from Badcoe. These changes reduced the Liberal margin from 4.4% to 2.1%.

History

Elder has existed since the 1993 election. The seat was held by the ALP from 1997 until 2018.

The seat was drawn as a marginal Labor seat in 1993, but was won by the Liberal Party’s David Wade. In 1997, Wade lost to the ALP’s Patrick Conlon.

Conlon became a minister in 2002 when Labor formed government, and served as a minister until he moved to the backbench in early 2013.

Conlon retired in 2014, and Labor’s Annabel Digance won the seat.

The redistribution prior to the 2018 election significantly redraw Elder from a marginal Labor seat into a marginal Liberal seat, shifting the margin by over 6%. Digance was subsequently defeated in 2018 by Liberal candidate Carolyn Power, then using the surname Habib.

Candidates
No information.

Assessment
Elder is a very marginal seat. If Labor is to take back power, this is one of the seats they would need to win.

2018 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Carolyn HabibLiberal9,81242.3-5.139.7
Annabel DiganceLabor7,34731.7-2.333.2
Michael SlatterySA-Best3,25714.0+14.014.6
Jody MoateGreens1,6797.2-3.57.6
Shawn Van GroesenAustralian Christians6692.9-1.72.8
Nick SchumiDignity4331.9-1.31.9
Others0.2
Informal7943.3

2018 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Carolyn HabibLiberal12,60954.4+0.352.1
Annabel DiganceLabor10,58845.6-0.347.9

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three areas: north, south-east and south-west.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two of these areas, with 52.5% in the north and 56.6% in the south-east.

SA-Best came third, with a primary vote ranging from 13.6% in the south-east to 14.6% in the south-west.

Voter groupSAB prim %LIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
North14.252.58,96237.9
South-West14.644.14,65119.7
South-East13.656.64,06817.2
Other votes15.954.65,97725.3

Election results in Elder at the 2018 South Australian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and SA-Best.

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