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This one’s a no-brainer. I mean the LNP won over 80% of the TPP here last year election and it’s located in the safest seat for any party in the country: Maranoa (held by Nationals leader David Littleproud). So obviously LNP retain. The betting odds would be 1.00 for LNP at best, if not nonexistent.
@ Nether Portal the LNP won with just over 70 percent of the TPP here in 2020 if that’s what you’re referring to. I haven’t calculated what the results would be based on last year’s federal election.
Otherwise, Warrego is obviously an LNP retain as you said. In the right circumstances I suspect that they could someday lose it to either an Independent or a minor party such as the Katters. Both of these examples have pulled its margin under 10% so far this century, with the Independent in particular coming extremely close to taking it off the Nationals in the early 2000s.
Perhaps I shouldn’t bring up ancient news, but it’s interesting to me that the MP for such a conservative seat, Ann Leahy, was once a staffer to the previous MP for this seat, Howard Hobbs, who resigned from the Borbidge government due to supposedly cheating on his wife with her.