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LNP hold.
Wikipedia says of this seat: “While the Gold Coast has historically tilted conservative, Surfers Paradise has historically been a particularly conservative seat even by Gold Coast standards. It is one of the few areas of the Gold Coast where Labor has never been competitive at the state level.”
What makes Surfers Paradise so Lib-leaning? It is high density and has a large population in their 20’s, the sort of demographics the Libs seem to be struggling with since Turnbull was dumped in 2018.
My guess is that the Gold Coast attracts people with certain traits that correlate with an inclination to vote for the LNP. Similar to how Nillumbik, the Dandenong Ranges, and the Blue Mountains vote more to the left than their demographic profiles would suggest.
“While the Gold Coast has historically tilted conservative, Surfers Paradise has historically been a particularly conservative seat even by Gold Coast standards. It is one of the few areas of the Gold Coast where Labor has never been competitive at the state level.”
@Nether Portal
Rob Borbidge who was then National party leader and leader of the opposition actually almost lost this seat in the Beattie landslide of 2001. Borbidge in his concession speech, even mentioned he had lost his seat on the night but he held on. Borbidge wouldn’t resume parliament and left in a by-election which the Nationals lost to independent Lex Bell. Because Nationals got such a paltry result in the by-election. They gave then Liberal by-election candidate John-Paul Langbroek a free run at the general election in 2004 which he was able to win the seat.
The view of the Gold Coast the closer to the beach the more Liberal it is. The further away from the beach the more Labor it is. Surfer Paradise buried right close to the beach which is situated perfectly for wealthy self-funded retirees who traditionally vote conservative.
There has been a view going back as 2017 Langbroek should call time on his career and make way for fresh blood. Langbroek has refuted those calls. Those calls were repeated again by some in the media after the 2020 state election. Whatever the case LNP retains.