Redlands – Queensland 2024

Rebecca Young – a business owner and recent past president of the region’s Chamber of Commerce has been preselected as the LNP candidate for Redlands. This seat didn’t get too much focus last election in changing hands despite being a marginal seat. My guess was the lack of discussion probably meant both parties internal polling was showing Labor MP Kim Richards would hold on which is exactly what ended up happening.

Redlands is a good old fashion ‘bell weather’ seat. I can’t see the LNP winning a majority government without a seat like Redlands. Because the LNP have been disappointing in Brisbane in past state elections, with the exception of the 2012 aberration. I will wait closer to the election before making a prediction.

Redlands is one of several marginal Labor seats with a large number of retirees (others include Pumicestone, Caloundra and Hervey Bay, and if the definition of marginal is stretched a bit, Redcliffe). I think many of them voted Labor last time due to Covid concerns, but as that’s no longer a pressing electoral issue, I expect these seats to swing towards the LNP, and the low margin makes them a serious risk of changing hands. Redlands is one that I expect to fall to the LNP.

Got nothing to do with retirees, This went Labor in 2017 and that was a pre-covid world. I can agree with seats like Hervey Bay since it was an LNP-leaning seat pre-covid. This seat is likely to be won by whoever wins government but I suspect the LNP are going for a majority with Steven Miles.

Daniel, that doesn’t disprove the retiree factor in any way. The retiree vote could have kept it a Labor seat when it would have ordinarily have swung back to the LNP. The big change between 2017 and 2020 was that a lot of 2017 One Nation voters chose the ALP for their first preference instead, and Covid could have been a big factor in that. I’m sure there were many people who chose One Nation on social policy and then switched away based on vaccines.

@Wilson, completely agree with your assessment. If the divisions you mention are trending in that direction, you might as well include Nicklin and Bundaberg too, the super marginals. Each are fairly similar to Hervey Bay demographically.

If the LNP are picking back up these SE QLD + Wide Bay retiree enclaves & exurbs, and Townsville & periphery (as some have suggested), you end up looking at a fairly even split between Labor and LNP in total seats. Especially if Greens add one or two new inner-city seats to their collection at the election.

Wilson,
Covid was unheard when Labor regained this seat in 2017.
The LNP are still trying to sell the same product that was rejected in 2015, 2017 and 2020.
In each of those elections, Labor increased their number of seats at the expense o the LNP.

A few comments on the other seats you have mentioned.
Pumicestone: Usually considered a safe Labor seat. 2017 result was due to sitting Labor MP being disendorsed & running as an independent.
Caloundra: The population growth in the Aura hosing sub-division (Caloundra West) has overtaken the Liberal Party’s traditional advantage. The state government has provided new roads from the Bruce highway that also benefits the residents in the coastal parts of the electorate.
Hervey Bay: First contested in 1992 (replacing Isis). The LNP/Coalition has only won it at 4 elections (2009, 2012, 2015, 2017). One Nation won it once (1998). Labor has won it at every other election (1992, 1995, 2001, 2004, 2006, 2020). Labor also won Isis in 1989. Hervey Bay is surrounded by the seat of Maryborough which has swung strongly to Labor at each of the last three elections.

If you are looking for seats likely to change parties, I suggest looking at LNP seats where the sitting member isn’t recontesting.

Watson, the elections you listed where Labor won Hervey Bay were sort of high tide ones.

Now with the lnp maintaining a lead (albeit slim), you would expect them to regain conservative leaning seats like Hervey Bay.

You An,
Hervey Bay is a Labor leaning seat.
From 1989 to 2023 is 34 years. In that time Labor has held the seat for 20 years, the LNP 11 years and One Nation 3 years.

With opinion polling show the LNP to be in the same position as they were prior to the last three state elections, I would not expect them to gain any seats.

WW
The LNP held Hervey Bay from 2009 until 2020. The ALP were definitely helped by the sitting member retiring in 2020. If anything it is trending to the LNP albeit currently with a Labor MP. With issues such as crime running outside SEQ it would seem ripe to be an LNP pickup.

Watson watch, I think you make a good point on Caloundra and I can see it staying with Labor because of the influx of new residents. The remainder of the seats, I think will fall or become very marginal indeed. The polls suggest this election is trending away from Labor so far, and it’s up to them to resurrect their image and save the marginal seats.

Redistributed,
I enjoy reading your posts.

The LNP vote in Hervey Bay has trended from 59% in 2012 to 34% in 2020, declining at every election.

The LNP were going to win Government in 2017 & again in 2020 by tackling their fictional crime wave. At each election they lost seats. Why does anyone expect a different result in 2024?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-07/queensland-lnp-says-youth-crime-out-of-control-reveals-policy/12429088

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-02/under-16s-in-townsville-face-curfew-if-lnp-wins-qld-election/9109614

Wilson,
Your comment is very similar to many of the comments posted on this site prior to the 2017 and 2020 Queensland state elections. The LNP/Coalition always seem to lead in Queensland opinion polls until the election campaign commences.
Do you remember the 2001 Queensland election? Opposition leader Borbidge dared Premier Beattie to call an early election because the coalition was leading in the polls.

Watson Watch, generally agree with most of your points here, particularly your point regarding the new housing development in Caloundra. But in regards to Hervey Bay, I think that taking stock of the thirty-year time-frame can be a bit amiss. It makes sense to weight significantly the most recent 10 years, especially the most recent election, but the preceding years have diminishing relevance to today or the next election. That being said, the relevance to election results of the past does differ by division. And to give some credit, Hervey Bay is one of those divisions in particular that has remained quite consistent in its boundaries and its demographics over the long term. However, despite suggesting that the most recent election is probably the one that should be given the most weight, it’s also worth putting it in context.

Recognising the exceptional context and circumstances of the 2020 election, I think it is fair to suggest that it was an anomalously good performance for Labor in part because of those exceptional circumstances. Furthermore, 2020 is the only election that Labor have picked up Hervey Bay since 2006. I do expect that there will be a recession to the mean on Classic TPP broadly across the state and Hervey Bay is a division that some of this movement will take place.

2020 was very uncertain times and this was a period in which elections all around the world were generally favouring the incumbent government. Elections conducted since the fading of the pandemic have conversely not bode so well for the pandemic government. During the pandemic, incumbent governments were able to flood out the media landscape and make it impossible for opposition governments to break through and receive any attention. I theorise that one of the averse side-effects of this was the fatigue that the public would have developed from being perpetually exposed to the government during this period. Far more than they would have in a typical government term. This would have made the government be perceived as more “aged” than they would under more normal circumstances. I think this fatigue was the basis of the NSW Coalition government’s defeat, and the NZ Labor Government’s defeat.

SEQ Observer,
Hervey Bay, like neighboring Maryborough, has swung towards Labor in three consecutive elections. I suspect Labor regaining Hervey Bay had more to do with government investment in the Fraser Coast than fatigue.
I live in NSW, so maybe I am missing something.

Watson watch, each election is different and past performance isn’t a guarantee of future success. I could equally argue that the 2006 and 2009 election victories showed Labor to be a strong government, yet 2012 was a catastrophe for them.

While I don’t think this election will be on the level of 2012, there’s a lot of palpable anger out there in the electorate that people blame the state government for, especially in places like Townsville where Labor hold three seats on low margins. A lot of regional Queensland seems to be turning against Labor.

Yes, they might come back into the fold, but there’s no guarantee of that. The Labor Party are smart enough not to be complacent about their situation, which is why they convinced Palaszczuk to hang up her boots recently.

Wilson,
Thanks for your comment.
The LNP have been pushing their fictional ‘Townsville youth crime wave’ since 2004.

Palpable anger in the LNP doesn’t translate to votes at the ballot box.

Election results show that regional Queensland is turning against the LNP.
The LNP now hold just 3 of the 17 seats in the tropics. Those being Burdekin, Gregory and Whitsunday.
South of the tropics, the LNP have lost Bundaberg, Maryborough, Hervey Bay, Noosa, Nicklin and Caloundra over the last two elections. The same two elections where a ‘fictional crime wave’ was the LNP’s path to victory.

Watson watch, alright, I guess we’ll see how it plays out. But electorates can swing both ways, trends can reverse and what doesn’t work in one election can work in another. Every one of those electorates can go back to the LNP under the right circumstances, and shouldn’t be taken for granted as a Labor retain.

When I communicated to a friend that I am seriously contemplating relocating to Queensland, one of the first questions she asked me was whether I am worried about how much crime there is there. I found it an odd question. She doesn’t follow politics much herself, but her family mostly consumes conservative media. I’ve been following commentary on Queensland politics mainly through here, and it’s starting to make more sense to me where my friend’s concern has come from!

Agree Nicholas, having moved from Sydney to Brisbane I felt the level of criminal activity is more or less the same. In fact, I would say the level of ‘gang’ type violence is much less.