Redcliffe – Queensland 2024

Unless the LNP win a decent working majority of above 53-57 seats, Yvettes profile could help her hold on narrowly. Will she run for the leadership if Dick and Miles decline? Labor might want another woman as leader. I’m aware it will “probably” be the member for Waterford, but who knows.

Surely regardless, The LNP wouldn’t make the SAME mistake 5 times, by choosing the SAME failed candidate that has contested this seat since the 2014 by-election.

Why is the LNP choosing Dooley again?? Do they not learn from their mistakes, Redcliffe kept rejecting her, can they not find another candidate to run here?

Labor will hold again, there will be a swing to the LNP because of the statewide trend but it will be under-average because people will be getting sick of the same defeated candidate running again and again, people can sense desperation.

I wouldn’t rule out Yvette becoming ALP leader, if Fentiman doesn’t want it and there is pressure for another woman leader.

Labor MP for Redcliffe Yvette D’Ath has confirmed she will not recontest the seat of Redcliffe at the next election. This has made Labor’s job tougher retaining this seat which could be vulnerable for Labor.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-22/qld-yvette-d-ath-to-quit-politics/103497526

@PN i think it was gone either way. when a change of governement is coing most mps jump ship rather then face the voters

Not with Dooley. Dooley is a 4 time loser here. She has no appeal to Redcliffe at all.

Yvette should run against Luke Howarth again. I suspect she will defeat him. Petrie is getting fed up with an MP licking Duttons boots.

Daniel, I doubt that Yvette would want to run federally again given that she has served over 10 years in Parliament (both state and federal levels), with only a brief interruption between 2013-14. I read from a recent article that she, like many other MP’s who end up serving a decade or more in office are now ‘worn out’ and no longer want to continue with the same career.

I agree the LNP should probably pick a fresh face to contest this seat, although there is precedent for a multiple time loser to eventually win (Susan Templeman, Labor MP for Macquarie is one example who ran unsuccessfully twice in 2010 and 2013 before winning on her third attempt).

i actually liked Yvette D’ath and was sad when she narrowly lost Petrie in 2013. The Delivered the Moreton Bay Rail Link which was promised over a 100 years ago.

@yoh an same with ali cupper in mildura

Daniel, have you also considered that demographic change in this part of Brisbane is also contributing to the general success of the LNP brand here, despite Luke Howarth’s ‘mediocre’ performance as MP.

I feel that Redcliffe and coastal parts of Moreton Bay are very similar to the Sutherland Shire part of Sydney, which was once a somewhat swing region that Labor could win occasionally but is now considered solidly conservative.

@Daniel

I seem to recall you speaking quite fondly of Howarth some years ago. What’s changed?

Yoh An, I disagree, the shire is much more conservative . Labor holds seats in and around Redcliffe. Labor doesn’t hold seats in the Shire really.

Labor won a bigger TPP in NSW than the previous 3 QLD elections. Yet Labor has reasonably safe seats in Redcliffe and surrounds but not the shire.

North Lakes is also a big part of Petrie, a swing area but will likely swing hard against Dutton, he has no appeal where I lived for 14 years.

Daniel, I will raise a counter point and argue that Labor in NSW held some Sutherland Shire seats when they were dominant (as late as 2007 when they narrowly held Menai and Miranda). Both seats in 2023 were also returned to marginal status (under 3%) when they were normally won by margins 10% or more in other elections that were more ‘neutral’.

Likewise, Labor in Queensland holds many seats that would be considered somewhat conservative leaning (examples would be seats such as Kurwongbah, Pumicestone and Redlands) due to their strong performance in recent election cycles. With the next election likely to favour the LNP, it is expected that Labor will lose these unfavourable seats.

I could definitely see Redcliffe flipping, especially if it’s a change-of-government, Qld hive-mind decided the swing’s on, sort of election.

D’Ath retiring probably won’t help Labor, and Redcliffe has been trending LNP relative to the state overall. I could see a strong LNP candidate holding the area long-term, like Tim Mander has done with Everton.

@ Yoh An
I dont know Brisbane as well so maybe you can assist. I have thought of the Redlands LGA as a Sutherland Shire equivalent. It is some what insular area and geographically separated from the rest of Brisbane Metro and very anglo. Fun Fact Bowman has the lowest % of Non English speakers for a capital city metro seat.

@Nimalan I mean I guess but I’d say that Redcliffe is more working-class than Cronulla.

Nether Portal, Nimalan is speaking about Redlands, not Redcliffe. Both on the coast, but opposite sides of the Brisbane River.

Nimalan, I think Cleveland specifically could be seen as similar to parts of Sutherland Shire, and possibly Redland Bay, but Capalaba is nothing like the Shire, far too poor and blue-collar.

Nicholas, You are correct that I did say more positive things about Howarth.

I never liked him politically, that is what I was mostly pointing out, but he is a nice bloke. he would often send birthday cards for milestone birthdays. so I have no doubt he is a friendly bloke and is passionate. He just happens to be a bit more to the right than the average person in the electorate and we vote people in on policies.

It’s like in my current seat of Melbourne, I have no doubt Adam Bandt is passionate for what he believes in and is a witty gentleman but I couldn’t vote for him as I believe he is a bit too left wing (although on some issues it makes allot of sense and he is ahead of his time) such as the right to ignore your bosses texts outside work hours which Dutton and friends wants to re-appeal.

An example of an MP who politically isn’t an extremist and is not afraid of standing up for the people in her electorate is no other than Bridget Archer in Bass. She is well suited in a marginal seat as a moderate.

Politicians regardless of stripe should go more towards a populist approach and actually move forward policies the general public actually want. because chances are, an unpopular decision is a bad one. and no matter how you explain it, it will tarnish your legacy.

I still stand by my earlier comments about Redcliffe, Dooley isn’t winning. while candidates have lost a couple of times before and won. Dooley lost the seat for the LNP in 2014 and lost in 2015,2017 and 2020 with swings against in more elections than not. Not a good track record.

Luke Howarth’s wife should have put her hand up. she would have a better shot at winning because of her name recognition as a spouse of a federal MP. Although Judi Van Manen struggles to win Macalister which is a Logan/Outer Gold Coast Labor leaning seat.

LNP would be winning over 50 seats if Dooley somehow won. They don’t need this for 47. They just need almost all the regional seats that Labor holds except for Mulgrave, Gladstone and maybe Rocky and Cook, and they need to win every seat on the Sunshine Coast and Gaven. That would barely get them there. (They might need 1 or 2 more if my math’s is wrong but in any case they just need Redlands and/or Aspley)

Thanks Wilson
Yes Redlands is interesting as it is mostly Liberal leaning while most other Coastal suburbs in Brisbane are more Labor leaning.

@ Daniel T The LNP aren’t going to get the 12 point swing needed to win Maryborough regardless of whether or not they win statewide and despite their relative closeness I doubt Cook, Mackay and Rockhampton are in reach for them at the moment as well.

You could argue that Labor will suffer a more severe swing in the regions than elsewhere, but that was also widely predicted to happen in 2020, and there’s really no sign that it’s true this time either yet at least in CQ.

I’m surprised Kerri-Anne Dooley is running again despite losing 4 times, first by losing in an LNP seat at the 2014 by-election. I guess the LNP weren’t too serious about it but they probably will be since Yvette D’Ath is retiring.

The Labor margin here may be slightly inflated because of Yvette D’Ath’s personal vote and the hard border with NSW during the pandemic. The latter appeared popular with older voters and helped Labor win Caloundra and Hervey Bay and win or retain other seats with large elderly populations. Redcliffe has a very high median age, so does Margate and Woody Point. Inland areas have a much younger population

@Laine they won’t win Gladstone but I’m expecting a swing of 10-12% to the LNP on TPP.

@ Nether Portal I’m hesitant to predict such a large swing towards the LNP in Gladstone as it’s held up for Labor better than every other regional centre but the current cost of living issues and (at least long-term) planned slow transition towards a renewable energy-based economy may hurt Labor if employment opportunities are not as fruitful as claimed.

@Laine I said that Labor have a big swing against them but they won’t lose Gladstone.

Former prosecutor Kassandra Hall has been announced as the Labor candidate for Redcliffe.

The margin, location and the retiring member factor (Yvette D’Ath is retiring) have led The Courier Mail to refer to this as a key seat.

The Courier Mail also reports that the Labor candidate, Kassandra Hall, is actually a former Liberal Party member. Miles admitted he was unaware of this.

Source: https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/premier-steven-miles-forced-to-admit-being-unaware-of-new-candidates-past-ties-to-lnp/news-story/76f1f215e6b1d4e83bf9bf4b8c998e3e?amp

@Nether Portal – Victorian Liberals are a lot more moderate compared to the LNP.

@Caleb depends on the person. As a whole, mostly yes.

Caleb, are they really? On economics they might be more moderate, but the Victorian Libs have recently fielded extremist social conservative candidates like Bernie Finn and Moira Deeming. Perhaps similar figures in the Queensland LNP exist, but if so, they at least have the wisdom to keep their views to themselves, instead of letting it define the party.

Wilson, agree and I would probably add that the WA Liberals may also have a similar issue with some of their extremist branch members airing their views publicly. This is generally a bad look because it allows the other side (Labor) to argue that the party as a whole is unelectable based on the views of a few ‘bad apples’.

Wilson, agree and I would probably add that the WA Liberals may also have a similar issue with some of their extremist branch members airing their views publicly. This is generally a bad look because it allows the other side (Labor) to argue that the party as a whole is unelectable based on the views of a few ‘bad apples’.

@Yoh An the WA Liberals sorted it out though: “The Clan” (the right-wing faction that tried branch stacking like-minded candidates in WA) was dismantled when Libby Mettam replaced David Honey as the state’s Liberal leader. The ACT had similar problems a while ago. Victoria and SA on the other hand still have a few problems in their factions, as does the federal party in specific areas (but certainly not nationwide). NSW, Queensland, Tasmania and the NT seem to have always had unity, and WA has joined that grouping. Those are also the states the party traditionally does best in.

One day I think Libby Mettam could become Premier. In 2025? I won’t write it off, but most likely not. In 2029? Definitely a good chance. And she would make a good Premier; she’s also from Busselton so she could possibly the state’s first regional Premier (at least in modern times).

One thing I would’ve recommended in WA is that the Liberals and Nationals avoid contesting the same seats as each other but it’s too late now since candidates are already being preselected.

It’s weird because the WA Nationals are contesting some blue-ribbon seats in the city like South Perth. I don’t understand why they would do this.

Nether Portal
>It’s weird because the WA Nationals are contesting some blue-ribbon seats in the city like South Perth. I don’t understand why they would do this.

Per the West Australian:
The State poll will be the first with a reformed Legislative Council for which 37 members will be elected Statewide — as opposed to six from six regions, including three in regional WA.
The changes mean the Nationals cannot rely on disproportionate support in conservative rural areas and have to boost their usually scant support in Perth.

https://thewest.com.au/politics/state-politics/2025-state-election-wa-nationals-announce-first-candidates-in-metropolitan-seats-c-14368267

I’m sure a bit of personal grievance with the Libs over the colossal Kirkup that was the 2021 election is playing a factor as well. Relations between the two parties are obviously not at a high point.

Factions have a life of their own. Often they don’t act for the good of the political party from which they spring. The clan in wa are a good example of this

@Nether Portal
It appears that the QLD Nationals have won Brisbane seats like Merthyr (Apparently it overlaps todays McConnel and Clayfield), Aspley, Greenslopes (!!!), Mansfield and Mount Gravatt in 1986.
I know 1986 Brisbane is different to 2024 Perth but the precedent is there. I especially have no clue how they won Greenslopes though. (I have no local knowledge. Born 2001, lived in Sydey all my life).

@Leon
Greenslopes, like your other mentioned seats, was held by the Liberals before the 1983 election. It was one of the seats that the Nationals took from the Liberals. The Merthyr and Wavell MPs defected to the Nationals from the Liberals to give them a sole majority government.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Queensland_state_election

Careful guys the WA Liberals has very little to do with the Queensland state seat of Redcliffe. This is starting to get off topic. And what wasn’t mentioned was the Labor candidate Kasandra Hall was a member of the Victorian Liberal party 20 years ago.

@Leon Leisha Harvey won Greenslopes for the Nats but that was a lifetime ago. Wildly different boundaries then and very different demographics. Boundaries change short-term outcomes, demographics change long-term ones. That’s one of the reasons why South Brisbane went from ALP to Green and will eventually end up as LNP.

@Political Nightwatchman She also ran for the Euthanasia Party but wasn’t a party member. I’m not quite sure how being an involuntary candidate works…