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This seats margin is interesting because at the 2012 election it was one of seven seats held by Labor yet the margin now is only 8.62%. You’d expect a traditionally safe seat to have a higher margin but the margin here only seemed to recover at the 2015 election before declining again. In 2015 Labor got a 9.92% swing to them for a TPP margin of 63.87% but at the 2017 election got a 8.8% swing against them to have a TPP of 55.2%. The difference between Labors TPP in 2012 and 2017 was only 1.25% and the TPP difference between 2012 and 2020 was only 4.67%.
I don’t think this seat is in play because it strikes me as a seat with a strong stubborn Labor vote but the decline in the Labor margin and lack of their lack of increasing TPP after 2012 compared to other Labor seats is interesting.
@North East honestly I expect there to be a swing to the LNP in most (if not all) regional seats. This includes Gladstone, Mackay and Rockhampton.
The LNP is tipped to win the 2024 election and regional seats look to be the ones that the LNP gains. The LNP is looking more and more likely to win in each new poll. The latest one has the LNP at 52% TPP, 40% primaries and Crisafulli ahead of Palaszczuk as preferred Premier. Labor looks likely to lose.
Western Sydney decided the 2023 NSW state election, with most of its seats being won by Labor. Maybe regional cities will decide the 2024 Queensland state election.
@Nether Portal Agreed. The LNP will probably campaign hard and look to pick up seats in regional cities such as Cairns, Townsville and Bundaberg and seats like Keppel, Cook and Hervey Bay
NE, agree except for Cairns the LNP candidate is under fire over that grant that involved the former PM and her husband who is Warren Entsch, this will cost the LNP Cairns unless they find a new candidate.
Rockampton shouldn’t fall unless it’s a landslide loss for Labor and even a less severe defeat than 2012 in 2024 woukd cost them Rockampton
@Daniel T Thanks for the info. When i was talking about Cairns and Townsville i wasn’t just talking about the seats name but all of the seat in those regional cities. The LNP would like their chances in the seat of Barron River.
Sitting MP Barry O’Rourke announced his retirement on Monday citing health issues. I already thought Labor may face issues here given Rockhampton has shifted sharply to the right in the past decade and the lack of an incumbent won’t do them any favors.
Additionally, Labor turned Independent ex-mayor Margaret Strelow, who polled 23.5% of the primary vote in 2017, has announced she will be running again.
While Rockhampton does have a relatively comfortable margin and Labor did withstand the 2012 landslide here, I don’t think they should be too comfortable, especially given the LNP’s strategy of going after regional seats that were safe for Labor until the past decade or so.
Ex Mayor Strelow this time has been campaigning since November 23 compared to 2017 when she only had a six week campaign. Labor has not even announced their candidate yet and once again this just shows Labor’s contempt for the Rockhampton Community. Strelow has had some huge endorsements including previous Labor MP BIll Byrne and most community groups. Even the Dean of the Anglican Church came out in the Courier Mail 2017 and endorsed Strelow and gave a glowing report of her commitment to Rockhampton. Strelow is not of the Anglican faith so this proves her community support is real . This time the One Nation Vote may not even get to 10% Also this time Strelow has a preference deal with the LNP. In 2017 Strelow let voters make their minds up. Strelow was Mayor for 16 years and has a very impressive resume and with LNP preferences she is probably the favourite to beat Labor . Even in the Newman swing of 2012 the LNP did not win Rockhampton. Strelow still has a huge following in Rockhampton and with the support of ex Labor MP BIll Byrne this well may be enough to get her across the line. There are still plenty of Labor voters in Rocky who want change but their hands still shake in the ballot booth. Strelow makes it easier for these rusted on voters to perhaps ditch Labor and back her. This could very well be a sleeper seat on the night.
Craig Marshall is the Labor candidate. He’s a biomedical engineer from Hillcrest Private Hospital.
http://www.margaretstrelow.com
I don’t think the LNP will get this seat with Margaret Strelow on the Ballot as she took a good chunk of both LNP & Labor votes back in 2017.
@caleb i think youll find that was in a year when labor did well she pulled more votes from labor then she did the lnp i think now that the lnp are expected to do well and with a retiring labor member the chuck that came from the lnp went to onp she’ll pull votes from the left but not the right so id say this is in play
It depends on the where the receding Labor votes go, and possibly One Nation’s too. If she is running a formidable campaign, then I can see the LNP backing out and perhaps offering preferences instead. As an independent, she could pull in preferences from most directions. ALP and LNP might want to preference her before each other. ON and Greens may want to preference her ahead of Labor. Preferences are no use if her primary vote is too low and she’s well behind the majors.
Margaret Strelow had her campaign office opening Friday 19 April. The office was opened by former Labor MP and Cabinet minister Bill Byrne. At this stage,she is the only candidate to have a full time campaign office and a team of volunteers on the ground everyday.
The office is in one of Rocky’s busiest shopping centres. Strelow is getting extensive media support, community support and it’s across the political spectrum.
In Gracemere which is usually ON heart land she is clearly getting support from all age demographics and is campaigning relentlessly for a high school and Police station upgrades.
Anyone who really knows Rockhampton politics will tell you , this time the mood for change is real and do not be surprised if the Labor primary is well below 30%. Both Strelow and The LNP have been seriously campaigning since November 2023.
The new Labor candidate is barely visible and is relying on the Labor base. I know this seat and I know it well. Strelow will poll second at worst on primary and will more than likely win with the help of LNP and ON preferences. Rockhampton has not forgotten what she delivered in local infrastructure and her love for her community is unquestioned.
If you don’t live in Rocky and understand the neglect Labor has inflicted on this town , you cant accurately predict the result.
This statement from Margaret Strelow’s website margaretstrelow.com
EXONERATED
It’s been a long and tough three and a half years but I am happy to announce that I have been completely cleared of the allegation of misconduct that led to my resignation as Mayor in 2020.
QCAT ( Queensland Civil and Administrative Tribunal ) have laid aside the 2020 Councillor Conduct Tribunal decision and made a new finding that I did not engage in misconduct.
Obviously I’m pleased with the result , however things should never have gotten to this stage and serious questions need to be answered and the involvement of the CCC should be examined.
But for now , I need to thank family and close friends who have walked the last few years with me and without whose support I could not have made It. I have been deeply conscious of the unwavering support in the broader community too and I am grateful for each one of you who stood up for me and with me.
I’m glad It’s over and I can focus on my campaign for the 2024 Queensland State Election.
I can see Margaret getting some really good preference deals. She’s not far left or teal or far right.
LNP and ON would likely preference her ahead of Labor with the hope that Labor loses it. The Greens and Labor will likely preference her ahead of LNP to minimise LNP’s chances of winning it. She does need to get a high enough primary vote in order for the magic of preferences to work in her favour.
She needs to beat a major party or not be too far behind the second placed major party to win.