LNP 4.1%
Incumbent MP
Dan Purdie, since 2017.
Geography
Sunshine Coast. Ninderry covers the Sunshine Coast suburbs of Kunda Park, Bli Bli, Eumundi and Coolum Beach.
History
Ninderry was created at the 2017 election out of parts of four seats: Buderim, Maroochydore, Nicklin and Noosa. All four seats have tended to be held by the Liberal Party and then the Liberal Natonal Party, although Nicklin was held by an independent from 1998 until 2017, and Labor has won Noosa in the past.
Ninderry was created as a reasonably safe LNP seat and was won in 2017 by LNP candidate Dan Purdie. Purdie was re-elected with a reduced margin in 2020.
- Michael Stewart (One Nation)
- Jo Justo (Labor)
- Dan Purdie (Liberal National)
- Tim Nixon (Legalise Cannabis)
- Tom Carden (Greens)
Assessment
Ninderry is a marginal LNP seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Dan Purdie | Liberal National | 14,582 | 44.0 | +7.9 |
| Melinda Dodds | Labor | 10,714 | 32.3 | +9.6 |
| Dan Bryar | Greens | 4,149 | 12.5 | -1.8 |
| Frank Weijers | One Nation | 2,072 | 6.3 | -12.4 |
| Andrea Newland-Blackmore | Informed Medical Options | 1,344 | 4.1 | +4.1 |
| Jay Giles | United Australia | 272 | 0.8 | +0.8 |
| Informal | 1,274 | 3.7 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Dan Purdie | Liberal National | 17,927 | 54.1 | -4.3 |
| Melinda Dodds | Labor | 15,206 | 45.9 | +4.3 |
Booths in Ninderry have been split into north and south.
The Liberal National Party won the two-party-preferred vote in both areas, with 50.5% in the south and 50.9% in the north. They did better on the pre-poll vote, with 54.9%.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 18.0 | 50.9 | 4,139 | 12.5 |
| South | 10.5 | 50.5 | 3,577 | 10.8 |
| Pre-poll | 11.2 | 54.9 | 16,036 | 48.4 |
| Other votes | 13.1 | 55.5 | 9,381 | 28.3 |
Election results in Ninderry at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.
This seat took a 4.3% swing against the LNP last election. I suspect it was same issue as neighboring seat Nicklin, where the elderly One Nation vote swung behind Labor because of their management of the pandemic. Despite the reasonably modest 4.1% margin. I expect the LNP will likely retain this seat, and increase its margin. In an election where Labor will likely be fighting to retain seats rather then to make inroads in the LNP seats. Retaining seats Nicklin and Caloundra will likely be more of a priority then spending resources in Ninderry. LNP MP for Ninderry Dan Purdie recently has been elevated to shadow cabinet, in the police and community safety portfolio.
Yes, easy retain for the LNP with Purdie going into Cabinet this year. Should return to an LNP seat with a 10%+ margin.
This sounds odd but have the ECQ considered renaming this seat in the future? Ninderry (Mount Ninderry & the town of Ninderry) aren’t central locations within the electorate. I thought Maroochy after the Maroochy River would be applicable considering it flows through the middle of the Ninderry electorate, but it would be confused with the neighbouring electorate of Maroochydore.
@James the confusion with Maroochydore would stop it from being named Maroochy.
@NP – Exactly what I said.
I should try to come up with a new person as a name for either seat. Irwin (Steve Irwin) could be a contender but Australia Zoo is in Caloundra (though is likely to be moved in the next state redistribution).
Why does the name have to be from something central to the electorate? What is central under one redistribution might not be in the next. I don’t see the need to change the name. But if it had to be something central to the electorate, then I’d call it Bli Bli.
@James Irwin would be a strong contender for either a federal seat or a state seat.
@Wilson – You do make a good point. Especially on the Sunshine Coast which is fast growing, electorate names are going to change pretty quickly. I argued Maroochy as it flows through the centre of the electorate, but Maroochydore would have to go due to confusion. Bli Bli is also a good name.
I argue central names as they usually are unlikely to be removed in one cycle, and this should be the case for all state electorates which use a geographic name. It’s also in the centre of the electorate.
Hopefully the VEC realise that Benambra must be renamed ASAP because Benambra isn’t even in the electorate.
I’m not a fan of changing names of electorates too often unless there’s a good reason e.g. if Ninderry falls out of the electorate.
Ninderry is one of the turn off points from the Bruce Highway to the rest of the electorate.
There are cases in NSW e.g. East Hills, where the name of the suburb or town is right on the edge and not even the largest or most important commercial centre, nor
Population centre might be a better rationale for a name, as demographics change slowly. Buderim or Bli Bli would be a more recognisable naming for locals