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Police officer Janelle Poole has been preselected as the LNP candidate. It make sense with the LNP pushing the law and order theme. The last two elections its been predicted the LNP would gain Mundungburra on law and order. There was no Labor incumbent last election and the LNP still couldn’t get it done. So commentators should be weary of over inflating the issue as a vote changer.
I know Les Walker has got himself in some controversy. But my guess is he will still be the canidate. As David Crisafulli found out himself losing Mundungburra in 2015, its a Bell weather seat. And if the change of government happens on the night. You would think the seat would be a good chance of changing if the swing is on. I will wait for my prediction in this seat closer to the election though.
KAP have announced their candidate for this seat as Michael Pugh. Seems to be involved in managerial roles and an outdoor enthusiast. Full article here: https://kap.org.au/kap-candidate-promises-to-put-mundingburra-back-on-track/
@Political Nightwatchman, LNP made a smart call there and that forced the KAP to announce early. I think Les will weather the personal storm now that he’s been acquitted of charges and resuming his parliamentary roles. Whether this can counter-act if there is a swing against ALP generally is to be seen and 2024 is his sophomore year. I was very bullish in 2020 thinking this would fall but underestimated the collapse in ONP. I still think this seat has a chance to fall but can see Les holding on.
This seat as well as neighbours, Townsville and Thuringowa, were touted as first losses or most at risk in 2020. The collapse of the ON vote in 2020 helped Les Walker here.
Since KAP and ONP’s primary vote can fluctuate wildly and preferences can flow in any direction, it’s anyone’s game. Previously, ONP took a huge chunk out of LNP’s primary vote. For Labor or LNP to win here or a similar seat, they need to win primary votes off KAP/ONP. I see Les Walker having some path to victory but it’s narrow and LNP is hoping to be third time lucky.
I think this seat is toast for Labor. All three Townsville seats are due to the mass panic over youth crime, which has turned into hysteria from an incessant media campaign. And I can’t imagine Walker has done good things for his image in the community by attracting trouble more than once while enjoying the local nightlife.
Labor could retain this seat if voters are convinced not to vote for the LNP cause the party leader was a one term member here who went carpet bagging to Broadwater soon after
@Cable
I don’t think that will be a factor in deciding this seat. I remembered that state election campaign in 2015. And I was hearing on the grapevine that David Crisafulli would lose his seat. The LNP were trying to save him, but they suggested all hope was lost. When Campbell Newman then as Premier flew up to North Queensland to campaign, but then was given orders to immediately turn the plane around and go back to Brisbane. It looked like in North Queenslanders eyes he was abandoning them and Crisafulli was finished.