ALP 16.7%
Incumbent MP
Mark Ryan, since 2015. Previously member for Morayfield 2009-2012.
Geography
South-East Queensland. The seat of Morayfield lies in Moreton Bay local government area between Brisbane and Caboolture. It covers Morayfield and parts of Caboolture, Burpengary and Narangba.
History
The seat of Morayfield was newly created at the 2009 election. It was won by Labor candidate Mark Ryan.
In 2012, Labor’s Mark Ryan was defeated by LNP candidate Darren Grimwade. Ryan returned in 2015, and won Morayfield back off Grimwade. Ryan was re-elected in 2017 and 2020.
- Rodney Hansen (One Nation)
- Suniti Hewett (Family First)
- Mark Jessup (Greens)
- Frank Jordan (Legalise Cannabis)
- Sarah Ross (Liberal National)
- Mark Ryan (Labor)
Assessment
Morayfield is a safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Mark Ryan | Labor | 16,386 | 54.4 | +8.6 |
| Theresa Craig | Liberal National | 6,549 | 21.7 | +1.7 |
| Rodney Hansen | One Nation | 3,582 | 11.9 | -13.3 |
| Amy Smith | Greens | 2,393 | 7.9 | +1.9 |
| Jason Snow | Independent | 631 | 2.1 | +2.1 |
| Grant Matthews | Informed Medical Options | 594 | 2.0 | +2.0 |
| Informal | 1,429 | 4.5 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Mark Ryan | Labor | 20,109 | 66.7 | |
| Theresa Craig | Liberal National | 10,026 | 33.3 |
Booths in Morayfield have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 65.9% in the south to 70.4% in the centre.
| Voter group | ON prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 13.4 | 70.4 | 3,760 | 12.5 |
| North | 11.8 | 69.9 | 2,359 | 7.8 |
| South | 11.9 | 65.9 | 2,005 | 6.7 |
| Pre-poll | 11.9 | 66.1 | 14,649 | 48.6 |
| Other votes | 11.1 | 65.4 | 7,362 | 24.4 |
Election results in Morayfield at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal National Party and One Nation.
Labor retain, but a decent swing against them incoming. Mark Ryan has a good local profile and the LNP’s primary vote is just too low to win it – but I suspect the margin will be around 5% for Labor after this election.
My guess is a Labor retain. Mark Ryan is potential leader and the party will hope he is still around after the election to help rebuild the party in opposition. He’s not likely to be considered for leader yet though as Shannon Fentiman and Cameron Dick are more likely to be successors if Steve Miles is defeated. But a position as deputy is possible. The seat of Morayfield has had a sizable One Nation vote, but I can’t see the One Nation vote reaching second place. Because the LNP vote is rising, and the soft One Nation vote will likely be heading to the LNP.
I agree Mark Ryan will win this, there will be a swing of about 12% to Sarah Ross but Mark will hang on, he’s a very decent person Mark and I believe should be the opposition leader after the election
It’s pretty clear Mark Ryan has quite a bit personal vote here, especially around Caboolture.
Ryan to lose his seat, 17% swing to LNP here.
I’m starting to think Labor retain, the newest poll shows them still losing but it’s now a lot closer than before. But then the exit poll was a different story.
New map of predictions: https://jmp.sh/925PSocT
I’ve given 16 seats to Labor, though only four are north of the Brisbane River (those being Gladstone, Morayfield, Nudgee and Sandgate). I’ve got Labor hanging on in Greenslopes because the Greens primary is simply just too low but they’re still losing Cooper and McConnel to the Greens. All the inner-city seats except for South Brisbane are notionally LNP on BCC results (South Brisbane is still Greens).
Despite the much improved performance in Brisbane I still think Labor will very narrowly lose Lytton to the LNP and therefore lose all of its seaside seats south of the river. Lytton will be the safest seat that the LNP gain but that doesn’t mean it’ll have the largest swing, that will be in a regional seat or somewhere in Townsville.
@NP, yes I agree with you, ALP to retain this but yes I agree they will lose Lytton
Alp retain